North Shore Nine

Yesterday morning on Starbucs (link), I said that I think Jack Suwinski will be better than Bryan Reynolds in 2024.

Despite DiNardo finding this take so egregious he had to step away for a minute, I’m not even sure if this take qualifies as all that hot, as Ethan points out in this tweet:

Even with the peaks and valleys as deep as the Grand Canyon, Suwinski finished last season with a higher fWAR than Reynolds, mostly due to metrics not loving the Pirates’ left fielder. Their offensive outputs were pretty similar (112 wRC+ for Suwinski vs 110 wRC+ for Reynolds), but Suwinski ended up with the slight edge.

You can see what makes Suwinski so interesting from the above chart. He doesn’t chase balls out of the zone and when he connects, he squares the ball up. If the 25-year old can continue to progress like he did last year, it’s easy to see that he can be a very valuable offensive weapon.

Another reason to be excited about Suwinski is because of how he finished last year. He recorded a hit in 12 of his final 13 games and rolls into the season on an 8-game hitting streak. In September, he posted a .289/.359/.489 slash line.

Suwinski tinkered with his swing quite a bit in 2023 and the changes really seemed to pay off in that last month.

Notice the stance is not nearly as open, he is more upright, and his hands are starting off slightly lower. All of these changes seemed to make him faster through the zone. September saw Suwinski’s highest Line Drive % (29.2%) as well his lowest Strikeout % (26.2%) of the season.

The Pirates have had quite a few issues when it comes to young players adjusting to MLB pitching. Suwinski has been one of the lone exceptions. Despite his flaws, he got quite a bit better in his sophomore season. Count me as being pretty optimistic, but I don’t think it’s too farfetched to predict 30 homers and an OPS easily clearing .800. If he can find the consistency that has alluded him throughout his brief time in the league, he can establish himself as one of the better offensive outfielders in the National League.