North Shore Nine

With Carlos Santana heading to the Twins, it seems nearly guaranteed that Rowdy Tellez will be the Pirates primary first baseman in 2024. He’ll likely fill the strong side of a platoon with Connor Joe. Tellez was a cheap option, signing a $3.2 million contract with incentives. However, I’m not one to judge a player by the size of their contract. Let’s take a deeper look at Tellez, including what he does well and where there are concerns. 

Tellez was non-tendered by the Milwaukee Brewers following a poor 2023 campaign, slashing .215/.291/.376 with –0.9 fWAR. His best season came in 2022, where he slugged 35 HRs and produced a 110 wRC+. So, what happened in 2023? The key reason for his struggles could be injuries, spending more than a month on the IL due to right forearm inflammation. With a full offseason to recover, the Pirates are banking on him coming back healthy. 

Diving deeper, Tellez saw a significant drop in his average exit velocity from 2022 to 2023, going from 91.1 mph to 89.9 mph. This dropped him from the 86^th percentile in MLB to the 60^th percentile. Tellez has solid bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline, ranking in the 69^th and 77^th percentile of whiff rate and chase rate, respectively. However, his patient approach led to a lot of strikeouts, swinging at just 52.9 percent of pitches in the strike zone. 

Defensively, Tellez has struggled in his career, accumulating -13 Defensive Runs Saved (DRS). However, 2023 was his best year in the field, serving as an average defender with 0 DRS.  

As part of a platoon, Tellez will likely face mostly right-handed starters. While Tellez’s career splits aren’t drastic, he’s been better against right-handed pitchers with a wRC+ of 103. In his best season, 2022, he posted a 117 wRC+ against righties. As previously noted, 2022 is the most recent season in which he had a clean bill of health. 

There’s always risk in counting on a player to rebound from a bad, injury-plagued season. However, I expect Tellez to be much better in 2024 than he was in 2023. I expect his average exit velocity to tick back up to some degree, allowing him to provide power for the lineup. As for what ‘much better’ looks like, I believe he’ll at least be an average first baseman, with upside to provide even more. 

In an offseason with a weak class of free agent first basemen, I think the Pirates got good value in Rowdy Tellez at $3.2 million. Hopefully, the savings from his contract will be allocated elsewhere by Ben Cherington, possibly towards a starting pitcher, such as Michael Lorenzen, or a position player, such as Gary Sanchez. Regardless, I have hope that Tellez will be a productive player for a Pirates team that is looking to compete. Tellez having success may be a necessity for this team, as Connor Joe and Jared Triolo carry their own risks if forced into larger roles at first base.