North Shore Nine

Luis Ortiz, Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, and Quinn Priester are the four horsemen of the Pirate Apocalypse.  More accurately, they are the four internal candidates to fill out the back end of the Pirates rotation for the 2024 season.   Many fans want to see the Pirates add one or two more external candidates.  However, the closer we get to the season the less likely that appears to be an option. Below is a quick comparison on how they have fared to date in their respective MLB careers, courtesy of Stathead.

Chances are high that two of these four will be in the Pirates rotation at the start of the season. Hopefully, it will be an easy decision as a pair of them will come out of spring training after having good, if not dominant performances.  An issue that may arise is minor league options, if all pitch the same, those with options will be the ones sent to AAA. According to Spotrac, Falter is out of minor league options, Contreras as well. With both Ortiz and Priester having a pair each at the team’s disposal.  

Now, if there is an injury or other issue that arises, we could see more than two of these players in the rotation.  So for now, let us dive into each player. To explore not only what they have done to date. But also what they need to improve on and what we may expect from them this season.

Luis Ortiz

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Ortiz enters the season as maybe the starting pitcher most fans are comfortable with seeing in the rotation.  His brief stint in the 2022 season appears promising when you dig into the data.  However, the 2023 campaign failed to impress as a number of things that had gone well previously stopped working.  In particular, Ortiz gave up a lot more homeruns last season and his walk to strikeout ratio got worse. In addition, he was hit a lot harder.  Furthermore,  as seen in the graphic below from Baseball Savant, he did not have the swing and miss factor he had previously employed. 

In 2023 he managed to improve his extension as well as his groundball percentage with his fastball velocity remaining high for the league average.  Also, it needs to be remembered that the graph on the left was over the span of four starts, compared to the 15 starts and 3 relief appearances in the graph on the right. Hopefully, the real Ortiz lays somewhere between the two versions we have seen.  If he can bring back what he showed in 2022, with his chase percentages, whiff percentages and strikeout percentage, he would be easy to pencil into the rotation. Furthermore, if he managed to keep his groundball rate at a reasonable level it would turn into a near no brainer.  So, how do the projection machines view this internal option this season?

As shown, the big three projections do not agree on what Ortiz is capable of this season.  ZIPS has the most favorable projection with him getting his walks under control and upping his strikeout totals. Both Baseball Reference and Steamer also agree that his SO/BB should improve though they do not have it improving as much, at 1.89 and 1.71 respectively compared to the 2.08 of ZIPS. Regardless, this would be a vast improvement over the 1.23 he put up last year.  All three projections also have him bring his WHIP out of the 1.696 range it was last year to more respectful 1.4 to 1.5 range.  While none of this is indicative of a great starting pitcher it is what one can hope out of a starter at the back end of the rotation.

LUIS ORTIZ	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
ZIPS	6	9	4.56	28	24	128.1	566	130	70	65	17	52	108
STEAMER	6	8	4.93	32	18	110.2	492	118	65	61	15	49	83
BAESBAL REFERENCE	5	6	4.50			100	442	99	54	50	14	46	87

	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	K-BB%	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	FIP
ZIPS	7.58	3.65	2.08	1.19	19.1%	9.2%	9.9%	.256	1.42	.295	4.65
STEAMER	6.75	3.96	1.71	1.21	16.9%	9.9%	7%	.270	1.51	.304	4.94
BAESBAL REFERENCE	7.8	4.1	1.89	1.3					1.45

Roansy Contreras

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Contreras is an absolute conundrum of a pitcher, starting 18 games in 2022 and looking like a potential ace in the making.  While far from perfect, he looked like a big piece of the rotation moving forward. While some regression can be expected in a second season, the level of regression that occurred was completely unexpected.  In 2023, he nearly matched his walk and homeruns given up totals, while facing 106 less batters. He also gave up only seven less hits while serving up ten more earned runs.  Simply put, the wheels fell off. 

When we look at the savant ratings, a few things stand out.  First, his off-speed run value improved. Additionally, his breaking run value remained consistent with his 2022 output.  However, his pitching run value and fastball run value tanked miserably.  In the his other statistical metrics additional red flags appeared. Most notably his fastball velocity went down 1.3 MPH. Unfortunately, his chase and whiff percentage went down considerably, as well as his strikeout and walk percentages.  While his barrel, hard-hit and ground ball percentages went up, it was not enough to overcome the other areas of his pitching.  All in all, 2022 Contreras was Dr. Jekyll and the 2023 version was Mr. Hyde. It will be interesting to see what version we will see of Contreras in the 2024 campaign.

The difference immediately to note on these three projections is that Steamer is banking on Contreras being used primarily as a reliever this year.  Whereas both the ZIPS and the BR project him as a starter. The chance of him making the bullpen seems low based on who the Pirates have returning or have added there, unless injuries occur.  As with Ortiz, the ZIPS projection is the most favorable of the three for Contreras.  It shows him returning more to the 2022 version, with him limiting the number of homeruns while keeping his walks down and his strikeouts up.  His career average of strikeouts per nine is 7.8 and his walk per nine is 3.9.  All three projections show him improving on both of those metrics going into his junior year, as well as a slight improvement in his WHIP. 

If Contreras can manage to do that, and regain some of the zip he had shown on his fastball, fans would be very comfortable seeing him as the fourth or fifth starter.  A lot will depend on how he looks this spring. However, if his velocity remains down and he is unable to harness a level of control on his pitches, then he might not be long for Pittsburgh.

ROANSY CONTRERAS	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
ZIPS	4	5	4.33	26	19	99.2	422	93	52	48	12	34	96
STEAMER	4	4	4.41	51	5	72.1	313	70	38	35	10	27	68
BAESBAL REFERENCE	5	6	4.74			93	403	88	52	49	13	38	87

ROANSY CONTRERAS	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	K-BB%	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	FIP
ZIPS	8.67	3.07	2.82	1.08	22.7%	8.1%	14.7%	.242	1.27	.292	4.01
STEAMER	8.49	3.38	2.51	1.27	21.8%	8.7%	13.1%	.249	1.35	.294	4.45
BAESBAL REFERENCE	8.4	3.7	2.29	1.3					1.355

Bailey Falter

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Falter comes into the 2024 season as a pitcher that seems to get a lot of undeserved vitriol in the online Pirate fan communities.  Part of that may be due to the fact he is a soft tosser. Some of it may be due to him having a season nearly as bad as Contreras did last year.  He came over from Philadelphia at the deadline for Rodolfo Castro starting his first game for the Pirates on August 5 pitching well over four innings of work.  However, a blowout loss to the Cubs on the 27th of August and an even worse one to Cincinnati on September 23 did not help his cause.  If you remove those two games from his slate with the Pirates, you have a pitcher who was 2-1 with a 2.94 ERA over six starts and three relief appearances.

Now, that can be done with just about any player in the majors. Take away two starts, or a few games of at bats and watch their stats improve.  However, in three of his seven starts he gave up only one run.  This does not take into account the three relief appearances he had.  These appearances amounted to a total of 13 and 1/3 innings. Over those innings he gave up a total of two earned runs. Furthermore, when you look at his savant rankings, his walk percentage remains great as does the amount of extension he gets.  While his strikeout percentage went down in 2023, a lot of his other metrics improved including his ground ball percentage, his chase percentage and his xERA. 

While there are more poor than average or great rankings, there is enough positive progression to argue he is worth a potential back end of the rotation spot. But, how do the projection algorithms think Falter will compete in the upcoming season.

Once again it is a bit of a mixed bag. Steamer again seems to see Falter as more of a relief pitcher, and all three differ greatly on his strikeout ability.  ZIPS predicts his strikeouts per nine will continue to decrease and be below his career average. Steamer projects things will be around what he managed in his ten-game stint with the Pirates last season, also below his career average.  Whereas BR projects his strikeouts to improve closer to his career high, which occurred his rookie year, primarily relief appearances.  All agree that his walks per nine will remain low and that his BABIP will remain below the league average, which is good.

There have been comments coming from the front office this offseason on Falter filled with praise, so take that for what it is.  A deeper dive into his stats have shown some of what the front office may have been alluding to, though questions still remain.  If, like Contreras, Falter can regain what made him good in 2022 then the Pirates will have another good option for the rotation.

BAILEY FALTER	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
ZIPS	5	7	4.35	27	22	113.2	483	117	59	55	15	31	84
STEAMER	6	7	4.65	55	15	117.1	506	124	65	51	19	33	92
BAESBAL REFERENCE	5	7	4.59			96	409	99	54	49	17	27	86

BAILEY FALTER	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	K-BB%	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	FIP
ZIPS	6.65	2.45	2.71	1.19	17.4%	6.4%	11%	.261	1.3	.291	4.39
STEAMER	7.05	2.54	2.77	1.47	18.2%	6.5%	11.6%	.264	1.34	.292	4.78
BAESBAL REFERENCE	8.1	2.5	3.19	1.6					1.313

Quinn Priester

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The last option for the Pirates rotation this spring is a player with the least amount of MLB experience, though a high amount of potential.  Priester holds his rookie status entering 2024 (By 1/3^rd of an IP) and has spent the last three preseasons on MLB.com’s Top 100 prospects ranking, coming in 52, 54, and 60, respectively.  In 2023, he pitched ten games with the Pirates, starting in eight of them.  This led to a 3-3 record and a 7.74 ERA with a 1.7 WHIP.  Sadly, there are no magic numbers to make his season look any better than it was.

Priester gave up three or more earned runs in all but one start, when he gave up only two. He also walked 27 batters while only striking out 36, coupled with giving up 12 homeruns in only the 50 innings pitched. In his savant rankings, the only metric he wasn’t below average on was ground ball percentage and the rest ranked as poor or below average. However, this was only his first taste of the majors. Look back no further than 2019 when Mitch Keller had his bad beginning. Then look where he has managed to progress today. Some of the numbers between the two were quite similar, though Keller had better control and was giving up less home runs, albeit with a lot more hits surrendered.

The point is we cannot judge a player based off one season, and while Priester may start this race as the dark horse candidate there is still a chance his number could be called. Priester has a number of concerns entering the 2024 campaign, and the prediction algorithms do not foresee large improvement.

The projections are all relatively kind to Priester after his first turn around the dance floor.  Progression is shown across the board and they show him limiting those home runs, increasing his strikeouts, and keeping his free passes in check.  Most fans will see the ERA, and maybe the WHIP and FIP and automatically disregard Priester.  However, a lot of pitchers are able to make big steps forward in their second seasons. Keller did, Oviedo did, as did Falter back in 2022, though Falter did regress in his 2023 campaign.  What this shows is that improvement over initial seasons can be accomplished for young pitchers. 

There is no guarantee that Priester could follow in that vein of performance. However, if he is able to improve on the metrics already mentioned, as he is projected to do, and with the defense the Pirates are projected to field, there is no reason to think it is not possible for Priester to be set up to succeed in 2024 and beyond.

QUINN PRIESTER	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	TBF	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
ZIPS	7	10	4.67	28	25	138.2	609	137	78	72	16	55	116
STEAMER	6	6	4.44	36	15	102.1	447	105	55	51	12	42	82
BAESBAL REFERENCE	5	4	5.42			78	344	77	49	47	13	33	71

QUINN PRIESTER	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	K%	BB%	K-BB%	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	FIP
ZIPS	7.53	3.57	2.11	1.04	19%	9%	10%	.251	1.38	.293	4.47
STEAMER	7.18	3.71	1.94	1.03	18.3%	9.4%	8.8%	.263	1.44	.306	4.52
BAESBAL REFERENCE	8.2	3.8	2.15	1.5					1.41

As it stands, these are the four options for the final two spots in the Pirates rotation. Now, the Pirates can make this easier by adding a free agent or trading for a young starter.  But as pitchers and catchers report this week, the chances of them doing one of those two options dwindle.  However, using an opener, could help mitigate using two of these guys at the start of the season.  Regardless of the direction the Pirates decide to go, baseball is back! Rejoice and let hope spring eternal, even if it is only for a short time.