North Shore Nine

It’s that time of the year: Spring Training is back! However, that has not and will not slow down the rumor mill. On 2/11, Jon Morosi tweeted the Pirates were one of a handful of teams monitoring the starting pitching market (https://x.com/jonmorosi/status/1756763277072142745?s=20). The names he dropped during the tweet and subsequently on video call to MLB Hot Stove were Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen. Then on 2/12, Mike Rodriguez reported that Domingo German has met several times with the Pirates, as well as the Angels (https://x.com/mikedeportes/status/1757163670524583995?s=20). Following the German tweet, Pittsburgh’s resident rabble rouser, Mark Madden, tweeted in favor of signing Trevor Bauer (https://x.com/MarkMaddenX/status/1757213831586038093?s=20). If people are unable to look past the façade of Mark Madden and revel in the brilliance of his tweet, clearly they don’t understand what a “heel” is in the wrestling world. NS9 has already covered this topic: (https://northshoreninedotcom.wordpress.com/2024/01/24/no-the-pirates-should-not-sign-trevor-bauer/) therefore, it won’t be discussed again in this article. So, that leaves two rumors and three players. The question is: do any of these pitchers make sense for the Pirates?

Domingo German:

German is a 31-year-old right-hander who spent six seasons with the New York Yankees. Over his career he has posted a record of 31-28 with a 4.41 ERA while striking out 543 batters and walking 161. He holds a career WHIP of 1.177 and a 4.50 FIP which have led to a 4.6 WAR over his MLB career. He has managed to have a better ratio of strikeouts and walks than his MLB counterparts, though his ratio to giving up homeruns is about 33% worse. 

His ZIP projections this year show him pitching above his career average. They foresee a 4.13 ERA, a 9.18 K/9, a 2.39 BB/9 to go with a .278 BABIP and 1.5 WAR. Steamer projects a slightly higher ERA, BABIP, and BB/9 with a lower K/9 and only a 1 WAR. For a pitcher that would fit into the middle of a rotation, those would be good numbers to have; however, the question would be whether or not the Pirates want to employ a player with the off-the-field issues German has dealt with.

The answer, sadly, might be yes. Personal opinions aside, the Pirates already employ a pair of players, Chapman and Bae, who have related off-the-field issues. That being said, everyone is entitled to try for redemption and almost everyone deserves a second chance. Pirate fans do appear, for the most part, against the Pirates employing players with these pasts. The part of this that can almost appear humorous is how quickly some fans forget. For those Pirates fans who are also Steelers fans, it is curious how many of them cheered for Big Ben when he was a Steeler. Did they stop after his off-the-field issues? If so, good for them. If not, then they cannot cast stones at players like German, Chapman, Bae, or Bauer, etc. 

At the end of the day, would German make the Pirates rotation better? Yes. Especially when you see that PNC Park neutralizes his home run problem. In his career he has given up 94 home runs. In PNC that would have only been 71, which is only bettered by the expected 64 in Kansas City. Furthermore, last year he posted the best WHIP of his career and limited his H/9. In the case of German, it comes down to whether or not the juice worth the squeeze. Does the on-field production outweigh the fan backlash that will occur? This is something only the Pirates front office can answer.

Noah “Thor” Syndergaard:

Syndergaard is a 31-year-old right-hander who has spent eight seasons in the MLB, most with the New York Mets. Over his career he has posted a record of 59-47 with a 3.71 ERA while striking out 928 batters and walking 216. He holds a career WHIP of 1.196 and a 3.37 FIP which has led to a 14.5 WAR over his MLB career. He has been better than the MLB average in HR%, SO%, and BB% over his time at the Major league level.

His ZIP projections this year show him pitching with career worsts in just about every measurable statistical category. The only categories where he might be above career norms would be BABIP and BB/9. Syndergaard has not been the same since injuries began hampering his career, including a partially torn latissimus dorsi muscle, a torn torso, and Tommy John surgery. This has led to a decrease in his velocity. Over the first five seasons of his career he averaged 97.9 MPH on his fastball. Across the last two seasons he averaged 93.8 MPH and 92.2 MPH respectively.  So, is Thor and his mighty hammer Mjolnir an option for the Pirates rotation?

No. It was reported by Jon Heyman on 1/30 that, during a recent showcase, Syndergaard was said to be throwing in the mid 90s. That simply is not good enough. Part of what made him so effective and dominant, at times, was the upper 90s fastball. The reason why he has struggled so much in recent years was that loss of velocity on his fastball, amongst other things. If all he can manage in a simulation that his people set up was mid 90s, then he hasn’t regained the magic he once had. That’s fine. He could still be a solid pitcher; however, the Pirates need talent, not another solid “reclamation” pitcher.

Michael Lorenzen:

Lorenzen is a 32-year-old right-hander who has spent nine seasons in the MLB, seven of which were in the NLC with the Cincinnati Reds. Over his career he has posted a record of 40-38 with a 4.11 ERA while striking out 602 batters and walking 288.  He holds a career WHIP of 1.325 and a 4.32 FIP, leading to a 7.7 WAR over his MLB career.  His HR% is below the MLB average which is good; however, his BB% is above and his SO% is below.

His ZIP projections this year show career lows in many categories. He is projected to see a decrease in his K/9 and an increase in his HR/9; however, it is not all doom and gloom. In fact, he is projected to better his BB/9 as well as have a 1.3 WAR this season. He is yet another starting pitcher who has seen his fastball velocity decrease over time.  Over the last two seasons it has sat above 94 MPH, while for most of his career it was averaging over 96 MPH. It should be noted that up until two seasons ago he was primarily a relief pitcher, so the decrease could be from the increase in pitches thrown per outing. Another factor to potentially consider is, as with German, PNC Park is better suited for Lorenzen than all but three other ballparks when it comes to home runs pitched; only St. Louis, San Francisco, and Kansas City have lower expected home runs than PNC. Lorenzen has given up 65 in his career, but it would be expected that would have only given up 42 in PNC Park. When bundled together, are there enough positives for the Pirates to benefit from Lorenzen’s services?

Yes. Of the three pitchers mentioned in recent rumors, Lorenzen has had, arguably, the best past few seasons and brings the least amount of baggage. He would easily slot into the two-spot of the current rotation between Keller and Perez. While he doesn’t move the needle enough to make the difference between under or over .500, he certainly makes the team better.

Rumors come from a variety of different places.  Some from players’ agents, some from front office leaks, some are made up for social media clicks. Regardless of where they are from, all need to be read with grains of salt. When it comes to these rumors it is hard to determine where they originate from, let alone the intent of them. German and Lorenzen can make this Pirates team better than they currently are. Thor cannot. If fans had to pick between the two, Lorenzen would be the guy as he doesn’t have the off-the-field issues that German does. If the Pirates had to pick, sadly, it would be the one that is cheaper and more willing to play in Pittsburgh, which might make German the answer. If that happens, Pirates fans will need to find a way to deal with it and he will have to pitch well enough to make them forget.