North Shore Nine

Our Sophomore Series continues our look at Pirates’ sophomores, specifically the ones who are the most likely to be contributing to the club moving forward. Each player’s profile will look at the following:

• Where they came from (draft, FA, trade, etc.)
• How they played in their minor league seasons
• How they performed in their first taste of major league experience
• How each player is projected to play this year based on ZIPS projection, Steamer projection, and the Baseball Reference projection
• Some insight/speculation on what can affect the player entering the season

A few quick notes for the armchair quarterbacks: one of the players that is being spotlighted still holds his rookie status for this season, and another is technically entering his junior season, albeit only his second with the Pirates.  Furthermore, one of these players is sadly injured and will be missing the season due to said injury, but as he remains an important piece of the future, he will be covered in this series as a bonus profile in this initial offering.  These profiles will be released weekly, so stay tuned.

Henry Davis:

Henry Davis was selected #1 overall in the 2021 draft, marking the first time the Pirates had picked in that spot since Gerrit Cole ten years prior. To start the 2022 season, he ranked second on the Pirates’ top prospect list, in the 2023 season he moved to 3^rd. Nationally, in 2022, Baseball America had Davis #41 with MLB.com ranking him #24 and Baseball Prospectus coming in at #18. Moving into 2023, the trio had him ranked #73, #57, and #46 respectively, a drop by each evaluator, which had as much to do with the new players being drafted into the MLB than his actual production. In 2022, Davis spent most of his time at A+ Greensboro and AA Altoona. He hit very well in Greensboro but struggled a little in the adjustment to AA Altoona. In 2023, he played 41 games in Altoona with a triple slash of .284/.433/.547 with a .981 OPS, hitting 7 doubles, a triple, and 10 home runs in 147 at-bats. These monster numbers led to a June 6 call-up to the AAA Indianapolis Indians, where he spent only 13 days before a call-up to the Pirates. During that short stay in Indy, Davis played in 14 games accumulating 48 at-bats. He slashed .375/.516/.604 with a 1.120 OPS with 3 doubles, a triple, and 2 home runs. These numbers, amongst other tangibles, resulted in a call-up to the Pirates on June 19, 2023. Davis did not perform as well in the majors as he had in the minors.  There are some who question how much of that was due to his change of position. So, what went right and what went wrong for Davis in the Show?

Davis in his rookie season did not have the offensive output that some might have expected, or hoped for, from the tear he had been on in his brief stint in AAA. In his 225 at-bats in the big leagues, he put up a triple slash of .213/.302/.351 with a .653 OPS. On a slightly more positive note, his ISO was .138 and he managed to hit 10 doubles and 7 home runs, though it all led to a -1.4 WAR.  A big difference in his offense game between the MLB versus that of AAA was the difference in the K:BB rate. This is not a big surprise for young hitters; however, it is also something that can quickly spoil an offensive season. When you dig deeper into the strikeouts, you see that his weakness was against breaking pitches. In the 365 breaking pitches he saw, he had a 44.5% whiff rate. Though, interestingly, he also hit 4 of his 7 home runs off breaking balls. Moving into his sophomore year, there is some work that Davis will need to put into his game. The projections show that, in their estimation, that work will translate into on-field production.

Now, looking across the three projections, both the ZIPS and the Steamer are very similar, and all show positive progression. The increases in Power, ISO, and OPS are a sign of potential optimism for Davis and the Pirates. If they do come to fruition, it would explain why we will see the projected flip in WAR that ZIPS projects. Davis has always excelled at the plate, and being able to bring that part of his game to the Majors will be a big step for him this season. The big difference between BR and the others is the power projection; BR is projecting slightly less power in terms of 2B and HR as well as SLG and OPS. (Yes, this is after doing the math on the difference in AB). If Davis can make this projected step forward in production at the plate it will go a long way to helping the team as a whole.  Expectations for Davis are relatively high coming into 2024. He will need to cut down on his strikeouts and increase his walks. Furthermore, he will need to learn how to catch at the Major League level.

At the start of the offseason, Davis was on most people’s depth charts slotted into a starting RF position. With many folks arguing for more time being spent at catcher.  That, and a lot of offseason planning, was thrown into disarray when a freak injury sidelined Endy Rodriguez for the year. This caused the Pirates to pivot and thrust Davis into being the starting Catcher.

It seems logical that Davis will have a better year at the plate as he continues to become accustomed to MLB pitching. Narrowing the K to BB gap will be a big piece of that and, if successful, he will get back to hitting as he has shown at all other levels. Another piece of the potential puzzle is something not discussed. It is possible that the move back to a more full-time catcher could bring some peace of mind and allow him to focus more on hitting, and less on learning a new position. In his time in the minors, he only played 18 games in RF. For him to be called up and then play the position 49 times could have had an effect on his production at the plate. One last thing that could help Davis this year is lineup protection; with Cruz, Cutch, Suwinski, Reynolds, Tellez, and Hayes in the lineup, it makes it easier for Shelton to give him protection, allowing him, hopefully, to get better pitches to hit, which has yet to hurt anyone in the MLB.

Bonus Profile:

Endy Rodriguez:

Rodriguez signed with the New York Mets in 2018 and he was dealt to the Pirates in 2021. In 2022, he played A ball in Greensboro. He jumped to AAA in 2023, playing for the Indianapolis Indians. His triple slash in AAA was .268/.356/.415 with a .771 OPS. He managed to hit 16 doubles, 3 triples, and 6 home runs in his 67 games for the Indians. Defensively of those games, he spent 54 at catcher. Coming into the 2023 season, Baseball America had him ranked #23 nationally, while MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus had him at #55. This, coupled with a good start to the minor league season, earned him an invite to the 2023 Futures Game. In 2021, he was ranked 27^th on the Pirates’ top prospect list, and in 2022 he jumped to 7^th on the list. His good play in AAA led to his call to the Majors on July 17^th, after which he played in 12 games over the rest of the month, and 57 total over the rest of the season.

Rodriguez had a solid rookie start after his call-up. Hitting .220/.284/.328 with a .612 OPS 7 doubles, 2 triples, and 3 home runs with a .108 ISO. He did not qualify for comparison in the savant rankings; however, there were positive takeaways. He would have ranked great in whiff percentage, as well as above average in sweet-spot percentage, chase percentage, and baserunning run value.  He would have ranked below average in xsOBA, xBA, xSLG, Barrel percentage, and hard hit percentage, which seemed to be common across Pirates rookies in 2023. Defensively, he was quite good behind the plate posting a .998 fielding percentage with 3 defensive runs saved above average and an impressive 30% caught stealing with a .5 dWAR. His defense stood out in the savant rankings as well. He scored a great ranking for his caught stealing above average and his pop time; however, he was just below the league average on pitch framing. All-in-all, it was a good start for a rookie. His strikeout and walk percentages were right near the league average, as was his exit velocity. Signs were all pointing in the right direction heading into his winter ball assignment with the Estrellas Orientales.

Sadly, while batting during a winter ball game, Rodriguez injured himself, which resulted in him needing a UCL reconstruction, leaving him sidelined for 10-12 months. Due to this injury, we only have projections for what could have been from ZIPS and Baseball Reference. Both projected good progression across the triple slash and OPS with a big jump in his ISO and steady improvement in the power department. If he had been able to play and hit his projections, the production would have gone a long way toward helping the Pirates get to where they aim to be. At this point, we can only pray for a strong recovery for Rodriguez and send our best wishes as he recovers.