MLB.com recently named Pirates third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes one of its dark horse candidates to win National League MVP.
The reason, according to writer Andrew Simon, is straightforward: An already elite defender, an offensive explosion from Hayes akin to his second half from last season could make him a plausible candidate.
“That Gold Glove defense gives Hayes an extremely high floor. Case in point: He has racked up 8.3 total WAR since 2022 (19th in the NL, per Baseball-Reference) despite slightly below-average offensive production (97 OPS+). In other words, if Hayes hits, he could vault into true stardom.”
I love the enthusiasm, even though we can all agree that an MVP to Hayes, who has yet to put together a full season even worth all-star consideration, is a stretch. Shockingly, people on the Internet had some doubts.
Now, before I dive in deeper, let me say this: I do not think Hayes will win the MVP award. While he certainly has the potential of an MVP player, his track record at the plate has largely underwhelmed. Still, another solid defensive season and another step forward on offense would make any Pirates fan incredibly happy, especially since the team pays him in Arby’s coupons.
Plus, winning an MVP sets an incredibly high bar, especially in a league loaded with talent.
Ronald Acuna just put together one of the most spectacular statistical seasons in baseball history and is yet to turn 26. Mookie Betts is still in the prime of a first-ballot Hall of Fame career with no sign of slowing. Fernando Tatis Jr. features the power and speed to put up jaw-dropping numbers, although he lacks Ryan Braun’s ability to hide steroid use. Corbin Carrol recorded one of the best rookie seasons in history.
Matt Olson hit 54 home runs. Luis Arraez could hit .380. Bryce Harper remains alive.
And, oh yes, the Dodgers just signed a two-way playing Japanese unicorn who regularly does things not seen in a century. While not pitching this season certainly hurts Shohei Ohtani’s chances at a third MVP award, I’m fully prepared for him to hit 87 home runs as a full-time DH and blow our minds once again.
So, yeah, Hayes has quite the uphill battle in front of him. And, to be honest, I can more easily imagine Oneil Cruz putting together the type of season that would win the award if we’re solely sticking to the Pirates.
However, there’s also a non-zero chance Hayes takes home the award. Granted, it’s not a great chance, but there is an incredibly slim scenario that should worry Kaleb’s left nut.
In the immortal words of Jim Carrey:
Let’s look at how we can Frankenstein together a season from Hayes to at least put him in consideration.
What he needs to do:
Keep doing what you do best: This is the easy one. Hayes leads third basemen in numerous defensive statistics. In his recent top 100 prospects list, longtime prospects writer, Keith Law, used Hayes’ defense as an example of an 80-grade tool—the highest number given to a player for an individual skill. Think the power of Aaron Judge, the fastball of Jacob deGrom, or the Yinzerness of David Bednar. That’s how well the industry views Hayes’ defense.
The only thing that could help Hayes defensively is a highlight reel of ridiculous plays. In some ways, he gets penalized in the eyes of casual viewers as he makes difficult plays—ones that most defenders would need an all-out effort—almost routine.
Pull the ball in the air: Hayes played the best baseball of his career in the second half of last season, hitting 299/335/539. While his numbers during his partial-season debut in 2020 were better, those were aided by an unsustainable .450 batting average on balls in play. Last year, Hayes both pulled the ball 18.8 percent of the time, the highest of his career, and hit more fly balls (26.2 percent), which was also well above his career average.
Avoid snacking during plays: I mean, how are you going to help your team when you are eating a sunflower seed even though the ball is 400 feet away down the right field line, the base runner can score so easily he could do the Griddy to home and not even draw a throw, and you are the best defensive third baseman since Mike Schmidt so you could make any play needed while eating a plate of fucking nachos?
So yeah, no snacking.
Stay on the field: Hayes has averaged 118 games played over the last three seasons. That includes losing two months in 2021 to a shoulder injury and lingering back issues the following two seasons. Hayes needs to show his durability and become the everyday presence at third base, playing in 150+ games. Manager Derek Shelton may rest Hayes more with defensive wiz Jared Triolo likely on the roster, but Hayes can push Triolo to other positions if he proves his health. The extra playing time will help Hayes accumulate the offensive counting stats needed to contend, and perhaps further show the defensive gap that exists between him and his contemporaries.
Keep running: Hayes lacks the jaw-dropping speed of someone like Ronald Acuna, but he’s proven himself to be a smart and savvy baserunner. It’s easy to forget, but Hayes stole 20 bases in 2022. While he stopped running in the second half of last year as his offensive performance increased, a return to 20 steals (or more) would emphasize his all-around abilities.
Delete Twitter from your brother and dad’s phones: They are really not helping you.
Help lead the Pirates to the playoffs: While raw numbers put a player in contention for top awards, sometimes it’s the narrative surrounding their season that pushes them over the top. Andrew McCutchen’s 2012 season was better than his MVP-winning season of 2013 but ending the 20-year losing streak played a part in him getting the hardware.
North Shore Nine 
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