North Shore Nine

This season, the Pittsburgh Pirates will allocate north of 20 million dollars towards their bullpen. Their biggest free agent addition this offseason, Aroldis Chapman, is slated to earn the team’s highest salary. For a team with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball, there has been a substantial investment into the bullpen. So, what will this investment produce? It could produce one of the best bullpens in MLB. 

A backend of David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman, and Colin Holderman projects to be among the most lethal in MLB. Add in Dauri Moreta and Carmen Mlodzinski, along with some intriguing young relievers, and the bullpen seems to have quality and depth. On paper, not many bullpens can compare to this group. With a rotation that has many questions to be answered, a strong bullpen could be necessary for the Pirates to succeed in 2024. Let’s take a deeper dive into the current bullpen options. 

We will begin with the face of the bullpen: David Bednar. An All-Star the past two seasons, Bednar has dominated opposing batters. 2023 was his best season yet as he tied Camilo Doval for the NL lead with 39 saves. He also posted a 2.00 ERA, 222 ERA+, and 1.10 WHIP. His arsenal is highlighted by one of the better fastballs in baseball, along with a curveball and a plus splitter. Assuming he stays healthy, he should maintain his status as one of the league’s best closers.

Next, the Pirates project to use Aroldis Chapman in the setup role. Chapman’s name carries weight due to his dominant career, but he is still one of the better relievers in MLB. Last season, he posted a 3.09 ERA in 58.1 innings pitched. Additionally, he posted an incredible 41.4 percent strikeout rate, the 2^nd best among players with at least 50 innings pitched. His command was poor, posting a 14.5 percent walk rate; however, his electric arsenal more than makes up for the control issues. Chapman’s pitches all grade out well above average. Last season, he had the best sinker and splitter in baseball per Stuff+, grading out at 177 and 181, respectively. 

Last year’s setup man, Colin Holderman, will likely be pushed to the 7^th inning with Chapman’s arrival. Holderman was effective last year, posting a 3.29 FIP in 58 games. His arsenal includes a sinker, cutter, and plus sweeper. This offseason he has reportedly worked on a 4-seam fastball and changeup. If the 4-seamer turns into an effective pitch for him, he should be able to generate more strikeouts. Despite averaging 98 MPH on his sinker last season, the pitch generated just a 15.9 percent whiff rate. An effective 4-seamer and changeup, along with his existing pitches, could elevate Holderman’s performance in 2024.

Now for a player I am extremely high on, Dauri Moreta. Moreta’s slider is one of the most effective and unique pitches in MLB. It’s been dubbed the “backwards slider” by some observers, averaging 8.3 inches of horizontal break to his arm-side. In 2023, he generated a 40.8 percent whiff rate on this slider while using it 64.8 percent of the time. His FIP and xERA were both well below his 3.72 ERA, sitting at 2.93 and 3.02, respectively. In 2024, I have high hopes that Moreta will be very effective when called upon. 

Carmen Mlodzinski also projects to be in the opening-day bullpen. Mlodzinski has a deep arsenal for a reliever, throwing a 4-seam fastball, cutter, sweeper, and changeup. I would not expect Mlodzinski to replicate his 2.25 ERA from 2023, but he projects to be an effective reliever for the Pirates in the middle innings. His deep arsenal of quality pitches should lead him to continued success in 2024. 

The final “lock” for the bullpen is Ryan Borucki. Borucki was extremely effective in 2024 in many roles, including opening games and pitching in leverage situations. He posted a 2.45 ERA and an incredible 2.6 percent walk rate. Given the depth of the bullpen, Borucki could be deployed in favorable matchups this year against mostly left-handed hitters.

With six bullpen slots seemingly filled, two open spots remain. At least one of these spots will likely be filled by a long reliever. Many options exist for this role, but the names I would look for here are Roansy Contreras, Bailey Falter, and Josh Fleming. Contreras and Falter are both out of options, meaning they must either make the opening-day roster or be DFA’d. If Contreras does not earn a spot in the rotation, the team may try to stash him in the bullpen in a last-ditch effort to “fix” him. Fleming is in a similar position to Contreras and Falter, having signed a split contract with the team. 

As for the final spot in the bullpen, the team could go several different routes. Another long reliever could be rostered to eat innings. Conversely, several “traditional” relievers could battle for this spot. On the 40-man roster, these players would be Jose Hernandez, Colin Selby, and Kyle Nicolas. Hernandez played the entire season in Pittsburgh last year and could provide a third left-handed bullpen option. Selby and Nicolas combined for less than 30 innings pitched but have great velocity and intriguing arsenals. Nicolas may also be tried as a starter again, which would all but guarantee he starts the year in AAA.

Two non-roster invitees I think could push for a roster spot are Chase Anderson and Ben Heller. Anderson could compete for a long relief role. He’s had past success in the majors and could provide semi-competent innings if the rotation’s issues remain unresolved. Heller, on the other hand, could vie for a more traditional relief role. He has a deep arsenal, throwing a sinker, cutter, sweeper, and changeup. The highlight of his arsenal is his sweeper, generating a whopping 78.6 percent whiff rate in 2023, albeit in a small 41-pitch sample. The Pirates have had success increasing pitchers’ usage of breaking balls, and Heller could greatly benefit from such a plan. 

On a team with many question marks, the bullpen should be a strength for the Pirates. Many of their relievers have already proven themselves to be reliable. Additionally, some of their relievers, such as Colin Holderman, could have more potential to tap into. This group projects to have a very high floor, as well as a ceiling of being among the best bullpens in baseball.