North Shore Nine

Our Sophomore Series continues our look at Pirates’ sophomores, specifically the ones who are the most likely to be contributing to the club moving forward. Each player’s profile will look at the following:

• Where they came from (draft, FA, trade, etc.)
• How they played in their minor league seasons
• How they performed in their first taste of major league experience
• How each player is projected to play this year based on ZIPS projection, Steamer projection, and the Baseball Reference projection
• Some insight/speculation on what can affect the player entering the season

A few quick notes for the armchair quarterbacks: one of the players that is being spotlighted still holds his rookie status for this season, and another is technically entering his junior season, albeit only his second with the Pirates.  Furthermore, one of these players is sadly injured and will be missing the season due to said injury, but as he remains an important piece of the future, he will be covered in this series as a bonus profile in this initial offering.  These profiles will be released weekly, so stay tuned.

Dauri Moreta:

Moreta signed with the Cincinnati Reds in 2015 as an international free agent. He worked his way up through the Reds system making it to AA and then AAA in 2021, before getting the call-up to the Reds on September 22^nd.  He only pitched 3 and 2/3 innings but did so to a 2.45 ERA and a .818 WHIP with 4 strikeouts and 1 walk. In 2022, he battled a pair of DL stints and was bounced back and forth from Cincinnati and their Louisville AAA squad.  He was unable to replicate his short 2021 stint. He ran into the problem of allowing too many home runs, giving up 10 in 38 and 1/3 innings in 2022, and he did not pitch much better at the AAA level that season, showing clear signs of potential regression from the season before. In the 2022-23 offseason, Cincinnati dealt Moreta to the Pirates for out-of-place Shortstop Kevin Newman, who had been a remaining piece of the Seinfeld draft.

Moreta spent the whole 2023 season with the Pirates. He might have been one of the more pleasant surprises for the organization. Casually looking at his stat line might not get that point across, though, as he was 5-2 with a 3.72 ERA over 58 innings pitched. However, where it does show his strength was with his 2.93 FIP coupled with his 1.086 WHIP and 10.7 Strikeouts per 9. When looking at further metrics to sort out his season, there were a few more negatives. His Chase percentage was poor and his walk percentage was below average; however, he was rated very well in the categories of xERA, xBA, Whiff% and K%, Hard-hit%, and Avg. Exit Velocity. There could be an issue if opposing batters start to figure him out and try to draw more walks. His three-pitch mix of a fastball, slider, and change-up without a high chase percentage could also lead to his previous home runs allowed issue returning.  So, after a very nice 2023 campaign, what do the projection machines foresee for the 2024 season?

All three projection algorithms see Moreta regressing a little bit for the upcoming season. The biggest differences are an increase in home runs allowed and a decrease in strikeouts. Given the aforementioned low chase rate, a decrease in strikeouts seems plausible. A positive sign is that the projections do not show an increase in walks to go with the decrease in strikeouts. The fact of the matter, however, remains that even if Moreta slips in productions to fit more along the lines of these projections, he will still be an effective reliever for the Pirates.  So, regression or no regression, how can Moreta build upon his talents in 2024?

After a poor season in Cincinnati and a very good season in Pittsburgh, it is hard to pinpoint which version of Moreta will take the field in 2024. Clearly, Moreta made adjustments after coming to Pittsburgh allowing him to pitch far better. If he can remain in that vein or even improve, he will continue to rack up quality innings out of the bullpen. Moreta has his name written in pen for the Pirates bullpen in 2024, joining a group that has some very talented relievers. Though many questions remain on the strength, or lack thereof, in the Pirates rotation, we know that once the game transitions to the bullpen, opposing teams will be hard-pressed to score runs, and Moreta will be a part of that stopping factor.