North Shore Nine

Our Sophomore Series continues our look at Pirates’ sophomores, specifically the ones who are the most likely to be contributing to the club moving forward. Each player’s profile will look at the following:

• Where they came from (draft, FA, trade, etc.)
• How they played in their minor league seasons
• How they performed in their first taste of major league experience
• How each player is projected to play this year based on ZIPS projection, Steamer projection, and the Baseball Reference projection
• Some insight/speculation on what can affect the player entering the season

A few quick notes for the armchair quarterbacks: one of the players that is being spotlighted still holds his rookie status for this season, and another is technically entering his junior season, albeit only his second with the Pirates.  Furthermore, one of these players is sadly injured and will be missing the season due to said injury, but as he remains an important piece of the future, he will be covered in this series as a bonus profile in this initial offering. These profiles will be released weekly, so stay tuned.

Ji Hwan Bae:

Bae signed with the Atlanta Braves in 2017 as a free agent. Less than two months later, he had that contract voided due to “fraudulent contract negotiations.”  This cleared him to sign with the Pirates in early 2018. In 2021, Bae was ranked by MLB.com as the Pirates’ 14th-best prospect. In 2022, he slipped to 17 on that list. He was never nationally ranked. Bae played in Greensboro in 2018, followed by some time in the Australian Baseball League in 2019-20. Bae spent the 2021 season at AA Altoona and started the 2022 season at AAA Indianapolis. While in Indianapolis, he had a triple slash of .289/.362/.430 with a .792 OPS. Additionally, he hit 23 doubles, 6 triples, 8 home runs, and had 30 stolen bases. Unlike our other offensive sophomores, Bae broke north with the Pirates to start the season, in part due to the previous season in AAA and in part due to his spring training performance. His only time in the minors in 2023 was a rehab assignment.

Bae did not live up to expectations in his first full season with the Pirates. He hit .231/.296/.311 with a .608 OPS and managed to only log 2 triples and 2 home runs over his 111 games. On a slightly more positive note, he did hit 17 doubles and managed to steal 24 bases. Moreover, his exit velocity went up 6 MPH and his strikeout and walk ratios remained close to the league average; however, he was caught stealing 9 times and only managed a dismal .081 ISO. When you look at the savant rankings for Bae, things go from bad to worse. Bae had the worst possible ranking in wxOBA, xSLG, and Sweet-spot percentage, and just missed the worst rating in barrel percentage. Moreover, he had a poor ranking with average exit velocity, hard-hit percentage, and strikeout percentage. He was ranked great in only two categories: baserunning run value and sprint speed, both of which are very useful things if he could get on base. His game did not get better on the defensive side of the ball. He regressed in his defense at second base putting in a subpar performance, as well as failed to impress in games in both center and corner outfields. This leaves Bae as the sophomore with possibly the most to prove coming into the 2024 season. He will not only need to project to play well but actually do so if he wants to stay with the big league squad.

Across the board, ZIPS, Steamer, and Baseball Reference all project Bae to have a bounceback season at the plate. Each one projects improvement in just about all offensive categories: from contact to power, from walks to strikeouts, from triple slash to ISO, and beyond.  The only projected category to remain consistent with what he did in the 2023 campaign is BABIP, where ZIPS projects the exact same number and Steamer projects a mild gain. If Bae is able to meet or exceed these projections offensively, it will give the Pirates potentially a good problem to have, assuming at least one of the other sophomores is also able to show positive progression. The other necessary improvement, however, is his defense. If he is unable to improve at second base or in the outfield, he will be a man without a position even if his bat improves. This leaves Bae in a very tentative position coming into 2024.

Bae comes into his sophomore season being anything but the “Bae” of the Pirates faithful. His 10-game cup of coffee in 2022 gave Pirate fans something to be excited about. He played slick defense at second base and put up a .5 oWAR. Clearly, that small sample size could not extend to the full-time 2023 season. So, what does Bae do this season? Does he adjust offensively? Does he improve defensively? Does he find a position where his speed can be put to the best use? Regardless of what angle you look at with Bae, improvement is an absolute must. Based on the glut of second basemen currently on the roster, the best place for Bae to try to stake his claim is in the outfield, specifically in centerfield. His speed and makeup would be well suited for centerfield if he can work to improve his shortcomings at the position. On the hitting side last season, he began pulling the ball less as well as going the opposite way less.  While not a definitive answer as to why he was not effective, it could be part of the reason. There is not a spot for everyone on the MLB roster. While Bae does have the ability to play multiple infield and outfield positions—something managers demand these days—he will need to start to do better offensively and defensively or else he will be relegated to a semi-useful super-utility man.