North Shore Nine

The National League Central is one of the closest divisions in terms of talent level between the five teams. The division is also easily one of the worst in the entire sport. While the current Pirates squad is flawed, if there is a division where they could win, this is the one. This will be a breakdown by each team in the order I believe the division will pan out. All projections for lineups and rotations came from Fangraphs’ Roster Resource page.

#1: Cincinnati Reds

Major Off-Season Acquisitions: 1B Jeimer Candelario, SP Frankie Montas, SP Nick Martinez
Major Off-Season Departures: 1B Joey Votto, OF Nick Senzel

Projected Record: 84-78

Projected Lineup:
1. CF TJ Friedl
2. 2B Matt McLain
3. LF Spencer Steer
4. 1B Jeimer Candelario
5. DH Jonathan India
6. SS Elly De La Cruz
7. 3B Noelvi Marte
8 RF Will Benson
9 C Tyler Stephenson

Projected Rotation:
1. Hunter Greene
2. Graham Ashcraft
3. Frankie Montas
4. Andrew Abbot
5. Nick Martinez

Even though the Reds are my current pick for division winners, it’s not because I think the Reds are even that impressive of a team; they just have the most upside out of the Central teams as they’re currently constructed. The Reds are in a full youth movement, looking to be led offensively by 2023 rookies Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and of course, their own freak mutant athlete, Elly De La Cruz. Those players are easily an offensive core a team can build around, as all 5 showed flashes in 2023 of being very capable MLB-level players. They also added Jeimer Candelario via free agency after his 119 OPS+ season in 2023. While their offense did over-perform most metrics—which suggests regression in some capacity next season—they also employ very good depth pieces in TJ Friedl, Jonathan India, and Jake Fraley.

Pitching is where it somewhat falls apart for the Reds. They addressed the rotation in free agency, inking both Nick Martinez and Frankie Montas to deals this winter. There are upsides in arms like Montas, Lodolo, Abbott, and Martinez going into 2024; however, like another NL Central team’s pitchers, there is a lot of assumed risk. Hunter Greene has been a mid-4 ERA pitcher his entire career and currently anchors the staff. Lodolo was very good in his rookie campaign but missed almost all of last year with injuries. Frankie Montas can be good but he hasn’t shown the ability since he played in Oakland. Abbott is my personal favorite arm in the rotation but the question marks will remain unless we see changes this season.

The bullpen isn’t all that great either. Alexis Diaz is an electric closer that any team would be happy to employ and Brent Suter was a nifty free-agent signing; however, looking over the rest of the guys in the bullpen, you can’t find many impact guys. The offense will have to play as advertised so this bullpen is not relied on to win many games.

#2: Chicago Cubs

Major Off-Season Acquisitions: SP Shoto Imanaga, 1B Michael Busch, RP Hector Neris
Major Off-Season Departures: SP Marcus Stroman, OF Cody Bellinger, 1B Jeimer Candelario

Projected Record: 81-81

Projected Lineup:
1. 2B Nice Hoerner
2. LF Ian Happ
3. RF Seiya Suzuki
4. CF Cody Bellinger
5. SS Dansby Swanson
6. DH Christopher Morel
7. 1B Michael Busch
8. C Yan Gomes
9. 3B Nick Madrigal

Projected Rotation
1. Justin Steele
2. Jameson Taillon
3. Shoto Imanaga
4. Kyle Hendricks
5. Jordan Wicks

I always think the Cubs are better than they are until I look at their projected roster. The biggest issue the Cubs face is that they haven’t really gotten better since last season. Chicago struck gold with Cody Bellinger last season—in which he had a career renaissance—and is looking to recreate that same success after bringing him back for 3 years. The Cubs employ some good position players, anchored by Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson; however, they lack any real impact hitting talent throughout the team. Nico Hoerner is a solid baseball player but is a league-average bat. Christopher Morel has fun power but has major contact issues that cap his ceiling. Pete Crowe-Armstrong is a Ke’Bryan Hayes-level defender but his bat is very shaky and you would be happy if he ends up with a wRC+ around 100. The lineup is very much like the Pirates’ where they have 5 or so guys you would slot into the lineup but they’re not players you would want carrying the team. The Cubs will end up having an average to slightly below-average offense, and with how the pitching staff is assembled, I am dubious if it’s enough to win this division. The main problem I see is that the offense is basically identical to last year which looks to have some regression to the mean.

The Cubs rotation also has several large question marks heading into 2024. Justin Steele is incredible and is approaching ace territory at the top of the Cubs rotation. After Steele, however, it is not nearly so certain. Jameson Taillon is poised to pitch significant innings for Chicago after an abysmal 2023 campaign. Kyle Hendricks continues to beat Father Time and has been an effective starter but the days of pitching more than 140 innings a season seem to be past him. Jordan Wicks is a fun rookie with a nasty changeup that I like, but pitching prospects are so volatile that you cannot pencil him in as a bonafide starter (even though I think he will be). They do have top pitching prospect Cade Horton knocking on the door who should debut in 2024, providing major support to a pitching staff that desperately needs it.

#3: St. Louis Cardinals

Major Off-Season Acquisitions: SP Sonny Gray, SP Lance Lynn, SP Kyle Gibson
Major Off-Season Departures: SP Jack Flaherty, SP Adam Wainwright, C Andrew Knzier

Projected Record: 80-82

Projected Lineup:
1. DH Brendan Donovan
2. 1B Paul Goldschmidt
3. LF Lars Nootbar
4. 3B Nolan Arenado
5. C Willson Contreras
6. 2B Nolan Gorman
7. RF Jordan Walker
8. CF Tommy Edman
9. SS Masyn Winn

Projected Rotation
1. Sonny Gray
2. Miles Mikolas
3. Kyle Gibson
4. Lance Lynn
5. Steven Matz

The Cardinals aren’t a good baseball team but it’s accurate to say that last year was underperforming from almost every important piece on the roster. The Cards boast the best and deepest lineup in the division and it isn’t particularly close. Even if Nolan Arenado is on the downtrend with age, bats like Paul Goldschmidt, Lars Nootbar, and Jordan Walker are all going to be major threats at the plate. The Cardinals will score lots of runs; barring another big injury bug like the one last year that saw many of their hitters go down. It would not be surprising if their offense wills them to a division title in such a weak division, and most projection systems have them winning the Central.

The reason I put a team with the best group of hitters in third place is the pitching. The pitching staff is still a nightmare, even after adding 3 starting pitchers in the offseason. Sonny Gray is an elite talent, easily a top 15 pitcher in baseball even if he is on the older side; however, he simply slots in as Jordan Montgomery’s replacement, leaving the team lacking in sizable improvement. The additions of Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn would’ve been terrifying if the year was 2019, but now they were some of the worst-qualified pitchers in the entire sport. Combined with the return of Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz to the rotation, you end up only having one pitcher you feel comfortable giving the ball to every 5 days and getting a good performance. The Cardinals took the approach of getting as many inning-eaters as possible, at the expense of getting talented pitching. The hope is that Lynn and Gibson provide more value than Adam Wainwright and Jack Flaherty.

The bullpen is pretty mediocre, as well, even after trading Richie Palacios to the Rays for Andrew Kittredge and signing Kenyan Middleton—a move I really like—for not a lot of money; however, there is a dearth of impact arms in the bullpen which will not help out the lackluster rotation.

#4: Pittsburgh Pirates

Major Off-Season Acquisitions: SP Marco Gonzales, SP Martin Perez, 1B Rowdy Tellez, RP Aroldis Chapman, C Yasmani Grandal
Major Off-Season Departures: 1B Carlos Santana, C Austin Hedges

Projected Record: 76-86

Projected Lineup:
1. SS Oneil Cruz
2. LF Bryan Reynolds
3. 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
4. DH Andrew McCutchen
5. CF Jack Suwinski
6. 1B Rowdy Tellez
7. C Yasmani Grandal
8. 2B Liover Peguero
9. RF Joshua Palacios

Projected Rotation:
1. Mitch Keller
2. Martin Perez
3. Marco Gonzales
4. Luis Ortiz
5. Bailey Falter

There is a universe where this Pirates team wins 85 games which sneaks them into the playoffs. This team is riddled with unknown commodities that could create success but it would involve almost everything to go correctly for this team to be a playoff team. I like the top half of the lineup quite a bit. Oneil Cruz coming back from his season-long ankle injury is the biggest spark the offense received this off-season. Bryan Reynolds is Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes is looking to build on his success from the last 4 months of 2023, and Jack Suwisnki is looking to take another sizable step forward as a major league hitter. The Pirates’ offensive success will ultimately come from the progress made with the veterans last year and the rookies who debuted to bounce back and be productive major league players. Henry Davis and Liover Peguero are the main driving points here, as both desperately need to establish themselves as big-league talents; not just for their careers, but for the Pirates to win meaningful baseball games. This allows for the rest of the lineup to be filled with league-average bats like Connor Joe and Edward Olivares to contribute without being relied upon. Ultimately, this all can happen but there is simply too much risk around the offense for me to reliably say it’ll happen. This applies doubly to the current pitching staff.

The pitching staff, specifically the internal options the Pirates have developed, will determine if the team is going to be any good this season. Mitch Keller is the only returning starter on this Pirates team that you feel confident giving the ball to every 5 days. New acquisitions Marco Gonzales and Martin Perez are going to be in the rotation, hoping to revitalize their careers after horrible years in 2023. The Pirates’ pitching staff will ultimately be as good as the crop of Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Jared Jones, and Paul Skenes when they are given the opportunity to start. There have been promising signs in Spring Training so far from this group of players and even getting 2 of these guys to be successful would be massive for the Pirates; however, it’s hard to pencil this in as a guarantee considering how poorly Ortiz, Priester, and Contreras all pitched last year in the big leagues. The bullpen should be easily 2nd best in the division behind the Brewers, despite the loss of Dauri Moreta to an elbow injury during the spring. Colin Holderman, Aroldis Chapman, and David Bednar will be a nasty combination to help close out games and shorten them to help our inexperienced starting staff. Carmen Mlodinzski and Ryan Borcuki will serve as great secondary pieces in the pen. I just wish the Pirates had another group of players as good as the bullpen.

#5: Milwaukee Brewers

Major Off-Season Acquisitions: P DL Hall, 1B Rhys Hoskins, C Gary Sanchez, INF Joey Ortiz
Major Off-Season Departures: SP Corbin Burnes. SP Adrian Houser

Projected Record: 75-87

Projected Lineup:
1. DH Christian Yelich
2. C William Contreras
3. RF Sal Frelick
4. 1B Rhys Hoskins
5. SS Willy Adames
6. LF Garrett Mitchell
7. CF Jackson Chourio
8. 2B Brice Turang
9. 3B Joey Ortiz

Projected Rotation:
1. Freddy Peralta
2. Wade Miley
3. Jakob Junis
4. Colin Rea
5. DL Hall

The Brewers are very similar to the Pirates where their success is entirely dependent on how their army of new pieces come in and perform. The current lineup currently has 2 guys who posted a wRC+ over 100 with Christian Yelich and William Contreras; however, the Brewers are adding multiple new talents to this lineup in both the minors and outside the organization. Top 5 prospect Jackson Chourio is all but guaranteed an Opening Day spot after being extended before playing a single MLB game. Infielder Tyler Black also has a good shot of breaking camp on the major league squad. Milwaukee is hoping that newly acquired Rhys Hoskins can return to pre-ACL tear status. Finally, they’re hoping that Joey Ortiz solidifies the infield after he was a main piece in the Corbin Burnes trade. There is a path forward to this lineup being good, but it’ll take lots of things to go right. Especially when Brice Turang, Sal Frelick, and Garrett Mitchell will get significant ABs with not much to show for it.

The starting pitching for this year looks rather bleak after Freddy Peralta. Losing Corbin Burnes to trade and Brandon Woodruff to another major injury was never going to be easily replaced. Peralta is a certified stud, but after him, the rotation falls off. Jakob Junis and DL Hall have good stuff but have found their MLB success as relievers. Wade Miley is competent enough but struggles to get through many innings. The less said about Colin Rea the better. Like the Pirates, the Brewers will rely on guys who have suffered from injuries that derailed their careers and internal prospects such as Aaron Ashby who is returning from injuries, and Robert Gasser and Jacob Misiorowski who are their top pitching prospects debuting in 2024. The rotation is helped heavily by the bullpen which is arguably top 5 in the sport, and will steal them a few wins.