North Shore Nine

Bubble Notes

They way I see it, there are currently eight teams in contention for the last four at-large bids. These eight teams are my ‘Last Four In’ and ‘First Four Out.’ All of these teams have arguments for and against their inclusion in the field. Ohio State will join this discussion if they beat Illinois today. All of these teams, except Seton Hall and Indiana State, will play today. I believe today is the last day from which games will be considered by selection committee.

Last Four Byes:

Virginia: should be dancing due to strong metrics and no bad losses

Oklahoma: should be dancing due to strong metrics and no bad losses

Colorado: should be dancing due to strong metrics and no bad losses

Northwestern: the loss to Chicago State weighs down their resume, but I think they will still make the tournament

Last Four In:

Pitt: if they beat North Carolina today, I would feel great about the Panthers’ chances of being in the field

Providence: huge matchup with Marquette today; this might be a must-win, pending other results on the bubble

St. John’s: similar to Providence, the Red Storm’s matchup with UConn might be a must-win

Mississippi St.: today’s matchup with Tennessee might be a must-win

First Four Out:

Seton Hall: need help from other bubble teams losing

New Mexico: despite a big win vs Boise State last night, I believe the Lobos still have work to do to earn an at-large bid

Indiana St.: the Sycamores’ bubble might have popped yesterday with so many bubble teams winning

Texas A&M: must beat Kentucky today; added an egregious fifth Q3 loss overnight due to the loss by Memphis

Next Four Out:

Ohio St.: with a win against Illinois, the Buckeyes could become a contender for a spot in Dayton
Wake Forest: eliminated from at-large contention
Villanova: eliminated from at-large contention
Kansas St.: eliminated from at-large contention

Other Notes

My seed list has two bid thieves baked into it: VCU and South Florida. With Dayton’s loss to Duquesne yesterday, there will be at least one bid thief this year, coming from the A10. If FAU wins the AAC tournament, along with no bid thieves in power conferences, one more spot would open up on the bubble.

North Carolina, Arizona, and Tennessee remain in contention for the final 1-seed, pending the results of their respective conference tournaments. North Carolina is my clear favorite in this race.

With a deep run in the Big Ten tournament, Illinois could replace Duke as the last 3-seed. The same could be said of Alabama if they win the SEC tournament.