North Shore Nine

Pirates General Manager Ben Cherington said in the winter that he would like the Pirates to have 12 or so starting options that the team can turn to at any given point. When some of the pitchers return to the fold after recovering from Tommy John surgery, he has around 12 pitchers that he can put on the mound and start baseball games in 2024. The 2024 Pirates certainly are not short of pitching depth, both on the 40-man roster and in the minor league system; however, after acquiring 2 starters in the offseason and trading for two others at the 2023 trade deadline, where do the Pirates stand in terms of talent? I have broken down the 9 arms that the Pirates might throw out there into tiers based on their talent, age, and potential.

Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller gets his own tier because, as it stands, he is the only healthy arm in the current rotation who is from the team last year and the only pitcher you feel truly confident about giving the ball to every 5 days. Mitch is also the only pitcher signed to a long-term deal after netting himself a 5 year, $77 million extension this offseason. Keller is coming off probably the best year of his career, pitching 194 innings (top 10 in the majors), punching 200 strikeouts, and putting up a 3 bWAR season. He started the year looking like a genuine ace, carrying a 3.25 ERA and a 2.85 FIP through the end of May. Then, he had some summer blues, as he stopped throwing his fastball as frequently because of his staggering 7 pitch mix. Keller ended the year with an ERA north of 4, which just feels disappointing when you watch him pitch because his stuff is better than that.

Keller will live and die by his fastball, by far his best pitch. If he continues to use his fastball that can have run like a cutter at times, he will take the leap next year from an innings eater with a low 4 ERA to a genuine #2 pitcher that you feel good giving playoff starts to. The Pirates also need to extend this man immediately.

The Veteran Reclamation Projects

Going into an offseason with one trusted starting pitcher is rough, especially when your second trusted pitcher has TJS. To address their glaring holes, Cherington acquired Marco Gonzales in a trade from the Braves and signed World Series champion Martin Perez as a free agent. They are hoping to get a bargain of 2 solid MLB starters for a meager $10.25 million combined. If Gonzales and Perez were signed to anchor the back of the Pirates rotation as their 4 and 5 guys, most Pirates fans would have very little to complain about; however, as it stands, they would slot in as the 2 and 3 starters in the rotation. This simply isn’t good enough for a guy (Perez) who was removed from the Rangers rotation and a guy (Gonzales) who is coming back from serious nerve surgery and an ERA over 5.

Perez is basically the 2024 version of the Pirates signing Rich Hill; a journeyman veteran pitcher who will never put up impressive numbers but can eat 170 innings and not completely embarrass himself. He simply is not good enough for what the Pirates need him to be, though. The hope is that pitching coach Oscar Marin can pull a Jose Quintana-like resurgence out of the hat and make him more like his shocking 2022 campaign.

Marco Gonzales is a much more interesting pitcher, as he has shown continued success as a Mariners pitcher for more than a single season, unlike Perez. He has never lit the world on fire in terms of pure stuff or numbers, but if Perez can even replicate his 2022 numbers that would be a major win for the Pirates. The one thing that gives me pause is his nerve damage. We don’t know a lot about pitchers who had this type of surgery because it’s so rare, but no one has recovered and been the same pitcher they were before undergoing the surgery. It’s hard to imagine you can bank on Gonzales giving you 180-190 innings again when Brandon Marrow was subjected to a reliever’s load for the rest of his career after getting the surgery. I hope this isn’t the case, but it’s yet another uncertainty that the Pirates have not addressed in their rotation needs.

There’s also Bailey Falter, who was acquired at the trade deadline in 2023 for Rodolfo Castro. Falter has yet to prove himself as he got hammered in the majors last year and is continuing the trend in Spring Training in 2024. He has struggled to miss bats and has been giving up far too many home runs as a Pirate. It is speculated that Ben Cherington loves Falter and would like to keep him in the rotation but, at the moment, it’s difficult to see where he would slot in over other options that the Pirates have.

The Burnouts

In terms of pitching, there were few major leaguers who had worse 2023 seasons than Quinn Priester, Luis Ortiz, and Roansy Contreas. All 3 young pitchers hit the majors as top 100 prospects and highly touted throughout baseball. I was genuinely excited to see these guys help anchor the rotation of the future and give a vision of what is to come for competing baseball. Instead, what we got was more uncertainty as none of the three came close to establishing themselves as MLB-level starters, and seeing Ortiz and Conteras take massive steps back from an extremely promising 2022 was even harder to see.

Having even one of these guys rebound and become a good rotation arm would be massive to the competing effort. If I had to pick one that I think has that chance, it would be Ortiz. Contreras has lost too much stuff on his fastball for me to consider him fixable and his four-seam was one of the worst pitchers in the entire league last year (-15 run value in very limited innings). Priester was always extremely limited, with his four-seam being not very fast and very flat. If he does become MLB-caliber, it’s hard to imagine he is more than a 5 starter on a good team.

Luis Ortiz, however, saw some success last year by moving away from his fastball and embracing the sinker (What’s up, Searage?). His fastball was on par with Roansy in terms of being bad (-14 run value) but he saw a 9-run value on his sinker that he developed last season. Hitters slugged only .340 against that pitch and while he keeps getting hit hard, it has turned him into a somewhat effective groundball pitcher. This would be an amusing development if it works because he was advertised as a flame-throwing strikeout machine with a wicked fastball and slider combination. I believe in him more because he has made the most adjustments so far that make me believe he can be an MLB pitcher; however, it’s a long road ahead to entering the goodwill of the fan base for all 3.

Spring Training has presented a new hope in the eyes of many fans for these 3 pitches. All 3 struggled with velocity last year and all 3 have picked up velocity back to normal and what is expected of them. Luis Ortiz has shined the most, dominating batters in Florida with the only runs he’s given up being unearned. An excellent job has been done to avoid hard contact while also generating whiffs. Quinn Priester has gotten back to 95 mph on his fastball and is sitting 89-90 on his slider, which is also a velocity jump. It’s hard to take much of anything from Spring Training in terms of results, but the stuff is majorly improved.

The (New) Exciting Prospects

Any hope of a contending Pirates team is going to be built off the backs of their ability to develop starting pitching. This off-season proved they are unwilling to pay the price for pitching and the farm is devoid of hitting talent outside 1 or 2 players. The 2 starters looking to be pounding on the door of the major leagues are the 2023 number one draft pick, Paul Skenes, and a 2020 draft pick, Jared Jones.

There’s not much I can say about Paul Skenes that hasn’t already been said. Skenes is a consensus top 10 prospect on any reputable prospect site and many consider the LSU grad to be the best pitching prospect in the entire sport. His fastball can hit 103 mph, sitting around 98 on average. He has a 70-grade slider and has now developed a slurve-style pitch to compliment the slider. There are concerns about his fastball shape, which has plagued pitchers like Hunter Greene, despite throwing 100 mph; however, if Skenes can command his fastball consistently, that worry should be put to rest. If Paul Skenes is not good, everyone in the front office and development team should be fired into the sun.

Skenes will not start the year with the major league team which makes sense, even if many believe him to be ready right now. But Skenes has never made starts with 5 days rest, he has yet to pitch more than 10 professional innings, and so sending him to the minors is the smart move to start the year. This is coming from someone who rages against the service time manipulation machine as well; however, there’s another standout pitcher currently in Pirates Spring Training who can be on the Opening Day roster and is currently competing to do so.

Jared Jones was not nearly as hyped or as well regarded after he was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2020 MLB Draft. Jones has taken many by surprise as the Pirates gathered in Bradenton to begin Spring Training. He was recognizable by most prospect-savvy people, being ranked in the Pirates’ top 5 by any prospect site that’s respected. The expectation was that he would debut sometime in 2024, but no one expected him to be a contender for the Opening Day rotation. It’s not hard to see why he’s being considered; his fastball can top out at 101 and sits at 98, and his slider is filthy and generates whiff rates near 35%. While his ERA numbers have never been gaudy, the stuff has always been there. Jones’ Stuff+ in Spring Training has hit 146. Jones’ biggest issue is locating his fastball and walking people, very similar to Luis Ortiz; however, he has the makings of an MLB starter, and it will be fun to see if he ends up on the Opening Day Roster.

My Projected Pirates Opening Day Rotation

1. Mitch Keller
2. Martin Perez
3. Marco Gonzales
4. Luis Ortiz
5. Roansy Contreras

I believe Jones and Skenes will start the year in the minors to get some fine-tuning (and check the boxes until service time manipulation is up). Falter is by far the worst option available and Contreras is out of options, so the Pirates will probably give him one last chance before a DFA over Priester.