North Shore Nine

The Pittsburgh Pirates entered the season with a weak rotation and a strong bullpen. But after a few weeks into Spring Training, things are changing. The bullpen suffered a loss with Dauri Moreta going down with an elbow injury. David Bednar has been shelved for some time with an injury, for which we are awaiting an update. To compound things, further potential pen pieces have failed to impress with Colin Selby, Sean Sullivan, Josh Fleming, Bailey Falter, Kyle Nichols, and Connor Sadzeck all failing to meet the grade. Now, it’s spring training, but none of those pitching have looked good this spring, statistics aside. The bullpen was supposed to shorten the rotation; however, with how it is now shaking out it is time to instead lengthen the rotation.

The sixth man. While many know this term as a basketball award, it should be what the Pirates look to for their pitching. By running with a six-man rotation, it could potentially help keep the bullpen in order. Going into the season, it was a 3-5-man competition for the last two rotation spots. As it sits now, there are three SPs that are looking good enough for those last rotation spots: Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, and Jared Jones. While there have been bumps in the road for them, they have all shown good flashes. Instead of picking two, the Pirates should just take all three and run a six-man rotation.

With 4 games in March and 27 games in April, running a six-man rotation would give each starter a varying number of starts depending on what makes the most sense for each pitcher. If they are worried about keeping someone like Mitch Keller or Martin Perez on 5th day starts, they still could. But with the age and health concerns of some of these pitchers, pitching them on extra rest could help them last the full season.

In 2023, Keller threw 194.1 innings, after throwing 159 and 100.2 in the previous two seasons, respectively. Keller, who turns 28 the day before the Home Opener, could pitch over 200 innings this season; however, to do so safely, some extra rest would be beneficial. Perez only started 20 games last year. The year before, he started 32 and was an All-Star. Perez, who turns 33 the same day Keller turns 28, has been relatively healthy the last few years. Nevertheless, he would also benefit from extra built-in rest as he tries to make as many starts as he did in 2022. Marco Gonzalez comes in as the Pirates’ 3rd starter and has had a long history with various injuries. In 2015, he had a shoulder injury and in 2016 he had Tommy John Surgery, causing him to miss the season. He managed to stay healthy for a number of seasons after that, even being named the Mariners’ Opening Day starter three straight seasons (’19-’21). However, in 2023, he had to be shut down due to a decompressed nerve in his forearm. Based on the severity of that injury, he is another pitcher that could helped by a lessened workload moving through the season.

Contreras has been up and down with his outings this spring, as has Ortiz to an extent. They also threw only limited amounts last season throwing 103 innings and 143.1 innings respectively. Jones has looked really good, but he only threw 126.1 innings last year between AA and AAA. With some of the youthful struggles seen in Contreras and Ortiz, and the lack of MLB experience from Jones. Having all three starters pitch on a longer rest schedule would allow them to build up innings, while not overburdening them in the process.

Now there is something to be said about starting every fifth day. MLB pitchers are used to doing that and it becomes a routine for them. While creating a six-man rotation makes sense, to an extent, for the Pirates situation it only works if you get player buy-in and understanding. It is also possible to keep pitchers like Keller and Perez, as mentioned earlier, on the normal 5-day rest, and use the other four on a more variable schedule. Below is an example of how that could work for the first month of the season.

The projected six-man rotation schedule above gives the Pirate Ace Keller 7 starts, while still allowing for extra days of rest between the two of them. Perez would make 6 starts, with the same extra rest as Keller. Gonalez would pitch on average, once a week. Due to the off days, the others would be pitching less frequently than once a week on average. Again, this might not be ideal for the pitchers or the team. However, it does allow for the extra built-in rest for the starters who might need it to get through a full MLB season. In the end, the healthier the rotation stays, and the less taxed the bullpen gets, the better the chances this team performs well deep into the grueling 162-game MLB season.