North Shore Nine

With the addition of Michael A. Taylor, the Pirates went from a battle for RF to a battle for 4th OF, which is great news for Pirates fans because it means they have potentially the best Outfield since Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, and Gregory Polanco. However, the question remains who that last outfielder will be, as no one has yet jumped to claim the position.

A few players have already shown themselves out the door: Canaan Smith-Njigba, Gilberto Celestino, Matt Gorski, and Ji Hwan Bae. Each had a chance to show what they could do and make an argument for why they should be on the Opening Day roster. Smith-Njigba was waived a few times this offseason, spending a week in Seattle before returning to Pittsburgh. He was not able to do anything with his playing time and was reassigned. Gorski is another player who has not been able to put things together and inches himself ever closer to a post-baseball career. Celestino has played well in the opportunities he has been given; however, as an NRI, he had the deck stacked against him, and with limited MLB experience it won’t be enough to make the roster. Bae has been dealing with a hip injury and has not seen the field since March 5th. He will be on the IL to start the season with a lengthy rehab schedule. That leaves Edward Olivares, Joshua Palacios, and Billy McKinney for the final outfield spot.

The career stats for the three likely candidates are not pretty unless it’s Last Call at the bar, but each brings something to the table for the Pirates, so it comes down to what will be the most useful for the team moving into opening day.

Edward Olivares: Was part of a roster crunch in Kansas City this offseason, causing him to be dealt to the Pirates for Deivis Nadal. The expectation, from the Pirates and the fans, was that Olivares could be the everyday RF or, at worst, part of a platoon. His career splits show him as someone who hits RH pitching better than LH, making him the perfect counterpart for Connor Joe who hits markedly better against LH pitching. In ’23 Olivares saw his most playing time in the majors, amassing 354 at-bats with a triple slash of .263/.317/.452 and a .769 OPS. Most of his good counting stats came in September when he hit half of his 12 home runs and over the last month raised his triple slash from .246/.299/.401 with a .700 OPS. This is a difference of .017/.018/.051 and .069. That speaks to what a great final month he had to be able to make that big of a jump at the end of the season. Unfortunately, he was not able to ride that wave into Spring Training. Again, ST numbers are not something to put too much stock into (just look at Bryan Reynolds), but the data is not good. Olivares has faced pitchers that grade out cumulatively at a AAA level and he hasn’t homered and is hitting below the Mendoza line for the spring. He has spent time in all three outfield positions this spring, which is good, but he has not shown to be a good fielder. For his career, he has proven to be a subpar MLB outfielder defensively. That all said, he has a slight edge in the race based on what he has historically been able to do. So it might come down to this last week of the spring to see where things fall.

Joshua Palacios: Palacios was a nice story, a journeyman Outfielder finally getting his MLB shot after a cup of coffee with Toronto and Washington. He has an infectious attitude and played the part of the spark plug for the Pirates at times last season. He put up solid numbers last season hitting .239/.279/.413 with a .692 OPS and 10 home runs. Defensively, he has been solid, maybe not as much of a liability as Olivares but still not good. This spring, he has been hampered by injuries, has only had 11 at-bats, and is so far hitless in those ABs. He also spent the offseason at Driveline trying to science his bat to the next level. Sadly, Palacios has not done enough to show he is ready to take on the role of the 4th outfielder. Furthermore, his career splits show he hits better off LH pitching than RH, something the team already has in Joe. Chances are he will not be breaking north with the team. Hopefully, he will be able to go to Indy and try to get back on track in case he is needed later in the season.

Billy McKinney: McKinney is a Ben Cherington special, a former 1st round draft pick plucked out of the discard pile. He came over early in the offseason from the New York Yankees for International Signing Pool Money. (No actual money was exchanged; this is the Pirates after all). If we want to break it down further, he came from the Bonus Pool that had been sent to the Pirates from the Rangers for World Champion Austin Hedges. He is in some ways the opposite of Olivares, as McKinney has a solid defensive glove, with a lackluster bat. His splits with his bat favor hitting against RH pitching; however, his career slash versus them is .211/.288/.392 with a .679 OPS. However, this spring McKinney has been on fire at the plate, showing a nice mix of power and contact. He has also spent time at all three outfield positions as well as first base. The downside to his spring numbers is that the quality of pitchers he has faced equates to AA level. This is the lowest rating of all the OFs vying for the final position. Due to this, and the fact he is an NRI and has been assigned already to Indy, he will more than likely begin the year there.

Final thoughts, Palacios has not shown enough progress this spring to break camp with the big-league club. McKinney has done everything the club has asked of him and more. He is deserving of a spot with the club and, had the Pirates not signed Taylor, he probably would have been on the squad. Alas, as it stands, he falls into the “First Four Out” category and will start the year in AAA. This leaves Olivares as the Pirates’ 4th OF. While he might not be perfect, if he can continue to show what he did at the end of last season in KC, he will be a very useful piece of the Pirate puzzle.