North Shore Nine

Our Sophomore Series continues our look at Pirates’ sophomores, specifically the ones who are the most likely to be contributing to the club moving forward. Each player’s profile will look at the following:

• Where they came from (draft, FA, trade, etc.)
• How they played in their minor league seasons
• How they performed in their first taste of major league experience
• How each player is projected to play this year based on ZIPS projection, Steamer projection, and the Baseball Reference projection
• Some insight/speculation on what can affect the player entering the season

A few quick notes for the armchair quarterbacks: one of the players that is being spotlighted still holds his rookie status for this season, and another is technically entering his junior season, albeit only his second with the Pirates.  Furthermore, one of these players is sadly injured and will be missing the season due to said injury, but as he remains an important piece of the future, he will be covered in this series as a bonus profile in this initial offering.  These profiles will be released weekly so stay tuned.

Carmen Mlodzinski:

Carmen Mlodzinski was drafted by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 2020 draft 31 overall. He entered the Pirates’ top prospect list in 2021 coming in at 11 overall. In 2022, he slipped to 14 on the list. In 2021, he pitched in Greensboro making 14 starts, pitching well in those starts. He followed this up by pitching 2 innings at the AAA level with Indianapolis. In 2022, Mlodzinski spent the year in Altoona at the AA level making 22 starts in 27 games. He was not as effective at AA as he had been in A+ the year before but showed promise in a few areas. In 2023, Mlodzinski began in AAA Indianapolis focusing on becoming a reliever working strictly out of the pen. He pitched 26 and 2/3 innings over 20 games with a 3.04 ERA, striking out 32 and walking 12 holding a 1.425 WHIP. This culminated in a call-up to the Pirates on June 16^th, when he pitched 1 and 1/3 innings striking out 2 and giving up a solo home run.

Mlodzinski made 35 appearances for the Pirates over the 2023 season which included some missed time due to elbow soreness.  Over his 36 innings pitched, he held a 2.25 ERA and held a 3-3 record. He struck out 34, walked 18, and had a 1.278 WHIP. Mlodzinski uses a 4-pitch repertoire with a fastball, sweeper, change-up, and curveball. The fastball and change-up were the most useful in his arsenal over the season. They held opponents to a .193 and a .190 batting average, respectively. Mlodzinkski had a 4.03 FIP in his first big league season. So, will he be able to build on a very good rookie season? Or will the sophomore slumps rear their ugly head? The projection wizards attempt to answer that for the fans.

The projection experts are at odds over his potential production; ZIPS and Steamer both project a big dip in his production whereas Baseball Reference (BR) believes the drop will not be as bad. The one thing that all three agree on is that the SO/BB ratio will improve this season. While last year it sat just below 2, this year, all three projections have it over 2 with BR having it as high as 2.44. It comes from the projection that he will have fewer walks per nine this year than he had last year, though only BR thinks his strikeouts per nine will increase. All agree that his WHIP will go up as well, along with the number of innings he pitches this year. That last item alone could account for the projections of a worsening stat line as he will see more batters and many will be a bit more aware of what he is able to bring to the mound. So, as preparations are made for the 2024 season, how does Mlodzinski fit for the Pirates, other than the likelihood he starts as a middle relief option for one of the strongest bullpens in the National League?

Much like Moreta, unless something unforeseen happens, he pitched well enough last year to cement himself in the bullpen to start the season. He undoubtedly will not pitch to the brilliant level he did in his rookie campaign; however, if he manages to pitch anywhere between what he did, and what he is projected to this season, he will be a welcome piece in the mid to late parts of the ball game.  The keys for Mlodzinski will be to continue to limit walks and to develop into a lockdown bullpen piece.  Furthermore, he will need to increase his strikeouts. While he did not pitch enough to qualify, he was low in the percentiles for chase percentage and whiff percentage, according to Baseball Savant. While this doesn’t matter based on how he performed overall, he will need to improve so he is not relying as heavily on the defense behind him, as seen in the difference between ERA and FIP. If these adjustments can be made, we will be talking about another strong season from Mlodzinski, as well as an expanded bullpen role moving forward.