North Shore Nine

The Pittsburgh Pirates have announced their starting rotation to begin the season and there were two surprises. The first was a very pleasant surprise; Jared Jones not only made the rotation but was announced as the 3rd starter going into the season. This also means he is slated to throw the Home Opener on April 5th, which feels intentional. On the other side of surprise, Bailey Falter was announced as the Pirates 4th starter. It was expected by some, far from all, that Falter would make the team though most, if not all, expected that to be as a bullpen piece. As expected, Mitch Keller, Martin Perez, and Marco Gonzales were announced as the other starters. Each of the five starters comes into 2024 in different stages of their careers with different expectations for the upcoming season.

Mitch Keller:
Expect Mitch Keller to continue to improve as a pitcher. Over the last three seasons, Keller has consistently improved his game which culminated last year with an All-Star appearance. In each of the last three seasons, we have seen Keller lower his FIP, WHIP, H/9, and BB/9 while increasing his SO/9 and SO/BB. If he can continue this trend, he will begin to pitch more like a true Ace than “The Pirates Ace.” Furthermore, other statistics have continued to improve with Opponents’ batting against stats of BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and BAbip have all gone down in the last three seasons. Add all this to the fact that the Pirates’ defense appears to have improved across the infield as well as in the outfield. Adding these variables together should be a recipe for success for Keller this season. Also, look for him to start to take on the presence of a veteran as the young pitchers start to come up, which could be a massive added benefit to the Pirates organization.

Martin Perez:
This will be the 13th season for Perez in the big leagues, and the first where he pitches in the National League. Perez made the All-Star game in 2022, having his best season to date. In 2023, he pitched well but much closer to his career average, which is that of an average MLB pitcher. Over his career, his pitching ratios are near or below that of his MLB brethren. His walk ratio is at league average and his strikeout ratio is 5% lower than the league average, though his home run ratio is roughly .5 points under the MLB average. The one stat that also stands out is that his GB rate is about 5% over the league average, sitting at 48.6%. The improved defense across the infield, except at first base, could assist Perez in pitching closer to his 2022 season. Now, the likelihood that Perez is able to again pitch at an over 5 WAR rate is low. But if he can manage to obtain a WAR in the 2-3 range it would be a huge boost to a rotation with a number of question marks.

Jared Jones:
The Pirates, The Pirates and Jared Jones, they’ve got a thing going on. The first Pittsburgh Pirates prospect to be on the opening day roster without previous MLB experience since Kris Benson in 1999. In said year, a quarter of a century ago, Benson went 11-14 with a 4.07 ERA. He put up a 4.14 FIP with a 1.358 WHIP striking out 139 batters and walking 83. He ended the season with a 2.4 WAR and a 4th place finish in Rookie of the Year voting. Pirate fans would be ecstatic with this type of production from Jones this year. However, at the same time, they should not expect the same number of innings Benson threw in his rookie year: 196.2. There is a lot to like about Jones; he showed a lot during camp and everything others have said about him has been highly encouraging. He will be limited to how many innings he pitches this year, but with J.T. Brubaker and Mike Burrows back in July or August, that could help make up the difference.

Bailey Falter:
Outside of Pirates management, there are very few who understand why Falter is starting in the rotation. He pitched well in small doses last year, coming into the spring outside looking in for the rotation or even the team. But he is the Pirates 4th starter therefore he must have had a good if not great spring, right? Wrong! While he did manage to strike out 15 batters over 16 innings this spring, that was countered with 14 earned runs and 6 home runs. While he did not walk many batters (only 3), he struggled in nearly every outing. The only reason to start Falter over Luis Ortiz or Quinn Priester is that you expect Domingo German or Eric Lauer to be ready by mid-April and expect to DFA Falter at that time for one of them. The only other way it makes sense is if this is the piggy-back situation Derek Shelton mentioned a few times in camp, where Falter will start and pitch once or twice through the lineup then be replaced by Ortiz or Josh Fleming to pitch through once or twice more themselves. Unless Falter suddenly cuts down on the gopher balls and increases other statistics, he will not be long for the rotation or the roster.

Marco Gonzales:
Gonzales was seen by many as the 3rd starter throughout the spring, so to see him announced as the 5th starter came as a surprise to some. However, he is coming off a very serious injury and he was less than sharp this spring. His stats this spring look very similar to that of the Pirates 4th starter; however, Gonzales has a much better professional track record and, as always, spring training numbers do not really matter (hopefully!). Gonzales is only a 40% GB pitcher, meaning 60% are line drives or flyballs. With a tall shortstop, a wizard at 3B, an apprentice wizard at 2B, and a much stronger defensive outfield this could assist him greatly. If worse comes to worst, one of the many younger pitchers the Pirates will be relying on in the near future pushes early. If that happens, and Gonzales falters (pun intended) he could be moved to the pen or elsewhere with little to no trouble.

Potential Rotation Pieces:
Paul Skenes: Jason Mackey tweeted a bit of jest this morning, stating that Skenes could be called up after 15 days in the minors which would be 4/12. It was in jest and nothing more, so do not get your hopes up. However, if the Pirates really wanted to catch their own piece of what happened in New York to the Knicks with Lin-Sanity, that would do it. The likelihood it would happen is about the same as you winning the Powerball at any given jackpot. But boy oh boy would it cause a national commotion in the best of ways. Much more realistically, Skenes will be shown in the Pirates clubhouse in late June or after the All-Star break. That is, of course, as long as all goes well, which there is no reason to think it won’t.

Quinn Priester:
Priester did not have a good season last year and did not have the best spring either. If there is an early season scuffle or an injury, he could be next up if the other, more experienced pitchers are not yet ready. However, it is also completely possible we do not see him at all this year in the Majors. A full season at AAA could allow him to work on the parts of his game that were not working at the major league level and prepare for next season when guys like Perez or Gonzales may not be with the Pirates.

Domingo German:
German will be pitching for the Pirates by mid-April unless a few things happen. There have been reports recently that have brought worry to Pirates fans in regard to the off-field issues German has dealt with. However, if he is able to keep free of the off-the-field issues, and can ramp up physically, then he will be slotted into the 4th rotation spot sometime around tax day.

Eric Lauer:
Much like German, Lauer needs time to ramp up for the season as he signed late and did not get a lot of innings in spring training. It is unclear how much of an option the Pirates view Lauer. At best, they hope for him to be a part of the pitching staff at some point before his opt-out day, at worst, he is organizational depth who will be allowed to leave on opt-out day, much like Chase Anderson was. Regardless, it will be interesting to see how he pitches when the AAA season begins.

Jackson Wolf:
It is unforeseen at the moment if Jackson will start in AA or AAA this season. Based on his age, AAA might make the most sense; however, he only pitched one inning this spring, which begs the question of how the organization views Wolf. He was relatively effective last year in AA: between San Antonio and Altoona, he threw 124.1 innings striking out 135 while walking only 32. He should be given the chance to show what he can do at AAA. If he pitches well, he could end up as an option for the Pirates if they are in need of a starter as the season drags on. Or, at worst, to build value as a trade asset for if the Pirates are in a place to add at the trade deadline.

There are other players who could see their way into the Pirates’ pitching staff this year: Wily Peralta, Sean Sullivan, Michael Plassmeyer, Brent Honeywell, etc. However, many of them have opt-outs, and might not be as high on the Pirates’ shortlist as the others mentioned. Regardless, the rotation is set and the season begins, so only time will tell how the rotation will perform and who will pitch out of it this season.