North Shore Nine

Our Sophomore Series continues our look at Pirates’ sophomores, specifically the ones who are the most likely to be contributing to the club moving forward. Each player’s profile will look at the following:

• Where they came from (draft, FA, trade, etc.)
• How they played in their minor league seasons
• How they performed in their first taste of major league experience
• How each player is projected to play this year based on ZIPS projection, Steamer projection, and the Baseball Reference projection
• Some insight/speculation on what can affect the player entering the season

A few quick notes for the armchair quarterbacks: one of the players that is being spotlighted still holds his rookie status for this season, and another is technically entering his junior season, albeit only his second with the Pirates.  Furthermore, one of these players is sadly injured and will be missing the season due to said injury, but as he remains an important piece of the future, he will be covered in this series as a bonus profile in this initial offering.  These profiles will be released weekly, so stay tuned.

Jared Triolo:

Triolo was drafted in 2019 in the competitive balance B round at 72^nd overall. Triolo first made the MLB.com Pittsburgh Pirates top prospects list in 2022, coming in at 20. He was getting a lot of attention for his glove at 3B and “excellent plate discipline.” He never made any national prospects lists during his time in the minors. Triolo played in Low A West Virginia in 2019, making the jump to Greensboro when play resumed in 2021. He then spent the 2022 season in Altoona at the Pirates AA affiliate. Then, in 2023, Triolo began at AAA Indianapolis. While there, he had a triple slash of .287/.412/.432 and an OPS of .844. He also managed to hit 15 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 home runs in the 53 games he spent in AAA. Defensively, he split time at third base (25 games started), second base (9 games started), and shortstop (16 games started). After this start at Indy, he got the call to join the big-league club on June 28^th.

Triolo played 58 games for the Pirates in 2023, starting 6 at 1B, 10 at 2B, and 35 at 3B. He played well in the field, and with 3B being his preferred position, played very well there. He was above the league average across fielding percentage, range factor per game, and range factor per nine innings; however, with arguably the best defensive 3B in the game already on the team, Triolo will not spend a lot of time at 3B in the majors. The defense he showed at 1B and 2B was also at or above the league averages for those positions as well; in the savant ranking, he rated great with his fielding range (OAA).  Adding more to the feel-good Triolo story, at the plate, he complimented his good defensive play by hitting quite well. In his 181 at-bats, he hit .298/.388/.398 with a .785 OPS. Adding to that, he hit 9 doubles and 3 home runs while swiping 6 bases. Triolo did not play enough to qualify for the savant rankings; however, he would have scored in the great category with his sweet-spot percentage and walk percentage as well as above average in his chase percentage. Conversely, he would have ranked below average in average exit velocity, barrel percentage, hard-hit percentage, whiff percentage, and strikeout percentage. The red flag that gets pointed out in the Triolo stats is his .440 BAbip which is well above the typical .300 that is seen across the MLB. This brings us to the “regression” factor that many fans and pundits fear moving into the 2024 season. To try to answer this, we need to look at the projections associated with Triolo.

Both the ZIPS and Steamer projections show regression across the triple slash for Triolo this year which mostly comes from the projection that his BAbip comes back to earth; however, it is projected to remain above the league average, so the “regression” may not be as bad as some folks fear. What stands out from the ZIPS and—to an extent—the Steamer is the power that Triolo shows being more doubles power than home run power. This is also why no one talks about Triolo as an everyday first baseman, though defensively he could be quite good there. He has not shown, nor is projected to show, the power numbers commonly associated with first base. The Baseball Reference projections are kinder to Triolo, showing an increase in his slugging and only a small drop in his BA and OBP. The difference here is BR thinks Triolo will grow in the home run department. The other projection that stands out that is very encouraging is his ISO is projected to improve over what it was last year. Again, this is due to the projected increase in doubles, not home runs; however, it is still good to see. But what are we going to see out of Triolo this year: Regression? Improvement? More of the same? We need to look no further than Jack Suwinski and what he was able to do moving into his second season with the Pirates.

Triolo comes into his sophomore season with a high amount of skepticism and one singular word floating over his head like the sword of Damocles: regression. He was a genuine surprise for the Pirates last season, much like to an extent Suwinski had been the previous year. Now the two are not the same type of player; however, if Triolo can buck his sophomore projection like what Suwinski did in ’23, that could be very good for the Pirates. The questions that remain, however, are twofold: 1. how much/will he regress? and 2. where will he play? If his regression with the bat is minimal or—if the baseball gods are good—nonexistent, then the second question answers itself. If he is hitting, he will find a place in the field to play. Whether that is to spell Hayes at 3B, Tellez at 1B, or whomever at 2B, that is yet to be seen.  Also, if he comes out stronger than Gonzales or Peguero, we could see Triolo starting at second base to start the season. There is a lot up in the air with Triolo, which is no different than many of the other sophomores. The big difference is how he finished the season with his bat. His ability to keep that bat going combined with the defense he was known for in the minors and that he showed in his stint in the MLB last year, will make him hard to not start. He could become a very pleasant surprise for the Pirates much like Suwinski has been over the last two seasons.