North Shore Nine

Welcome to the weekly Scouting Prospects; The Top 30 series. Each week we will take a look at a different one of the Pirates Top 30 prospects, with a few bonus “double drop” weeks. The format of these articles will highlight and discuss the following.

• Scouting Score
• Performance
• Expectations
• Projected Debut
  
  When it comes to scouting grades, the scale used is 20-80. So, a 20-30 grade would be considered well below average. A 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average (Also called Plus) and 70-80 is well above average (or Plus Plus). For prospects the overall grade is where scouts expect the player to perform once in the majors. For example, a 65 grade would be an All-Star caliber standout player, whereas a 50 would be an everyday player and a 40 would be a bench player.
  
  Termarr Johnson:
  
  Johnson was drafted in 2022 at 4th overall, as the draft approached there was rumors he could potentially go #1 overall. He was also called one of the best of the class when it came to pure hitters. Furthermore, some scouts stated Johnson was one of the best high school hitters in recent drafts. To start the 2024 season he is ranked as the 2nd best Pirates prospect and the 40th in MLB, at only 19 years old. A lot of expectations for someone so young so, where are his scouting grades moving in the 2024 season.

The grades are not as high as you see with a player like Paul Skenes or even a player like Junior Caminero of Tampa Bay. But folks have to remember that he is younger than many prospects out there and has spent less time in the minors. He rates similar or better than Ronny Mauricio who is having a solid start to the season with the New York Mets. He also rates nearly identical to Noelvi Marte of the Cincinnati Reds, who is three years older and raking in the Show. So Johnson’s scouting score could continue to increase as he ages, which should excite fans, especially when they see what he can do at the plate and in the field.

Pirates fans got a small taste of Termarr Johnson during Spring Training. In those 15 games he played he hit .348/.400/.652 with a 1.052 OPS and 2 home runs. It excited even the most casual of fam and had rational and irrational alike clamoring for him to play in Pittsburgh already. Why that did not happen has become evident for those that have looked at his numbers in high A, as of May 6th. So far this year in Greensboro he is hitting .188/.383/.263 with a .646 OPS and only three XBH in a double, triple and a home run. Though it should be noted this was due to a frigid start, and that he has really started to turn it on after April 12th when his average had dipped to .083. So his ST performance is what Pirates fan want to expect out of him, and his current numbers are not ideal. Therefore, what do pundits expect out of him moving forward?

A lot is the simple answer. Not only is he rated as the 40th best prospect in baseball, he is ranked as the best 2B prospect. He had the expectation coming into the Pirates organization as a high contact hitter who could battle for a batting title. Last season he sold out that average to focus on power hitting 18 homeruns. While he still had a solid average he was not using the field as he had previously in his at bats. His ability to find the right mixture of power and contact will be very beneficial for him. Though many argue that at 19 he should focus on the contact and let the mature come as his body matures into its final form. Regardless of what track he is put on, the expectations for his young man are very high. Which means folks will continue to ask when they will see him in Pittsburgh in the black and gold.

Scouts and Pundits think 2025 is when fan could see Johnson in Pittsburgh. Fans think it is possible to see him at some point this year. It is very unlikely that he make the Pirates this year. Changes are at some point, probably after the draft, he will be promoted to AA Altoona. If that is the case, and depending on how he performs there, he could make it to AAA Indianapolis at some point next season. This is of course considering all goes well and he is able to get his bat going again. If he can, it could put him in line for a cup of coffee call up in 2025. However, it is much more likely that 2026 or 2027 is when you see him with a prominent role for the Pirates. Which would still make him only 22 or 23, about the same age as the next man on our Prospect Watch was when he made his splash debut.