North Shore Nine

Roughly a quarter of the way into the 2024 baseball season and the Pirates are hovering near .500. They have ridden an amazing start by Jared Jones, they have seen struggles with some of their bigger name players and Pau Skenes is on his way to Pittsburgh to start his career. The team has some obvious holes that will need to be addressed, and for one particular position free agency is the potential best way to do that.
Positions that will not need to be addressed. Shortstop is locked down for the near future, as is Centerfield, Leftfield, third base, second base and catcher. Right field could be up for debate if Michael A. Taylor if not retained. Catcher will be debated depending on how Henry Davis comes back from AAA like and how Endy Rodriguez looks after his injury. DH might be up for debate as well depending on how certain players finish the season. However, the biggest issue is once again first base. There are no prospects anywhere near ready to help at the position in the minors. Meaning Free Agency will be the best path forward to add at 1B.
Rowdy Tellez will no longer be employed by the organization. Furthermore, guys like Martin Perez, Aroldis Chapman and possibly Marco Gonzales will all be gone likely. Replaced by younger less expensive options like Paul Skenes, Quinn Priester, Mike Burrows and Kyle Nicolas. Just Tellez, Perez, Chapman and Gonzales give the Pirates roughly 24.7 million in free agency spending. The Pirates might be unlikely to spend all of that on a 1B, but they should, it would get them the level of talent they desperately need. This brings us to the crux, who will be available for the Pirates to take a swing at in the offseason.

Unrestricted Free Agents:

Pete Alonso:
It appears he will be on his way out of New York at seasons end. If that is indeed the case the Pittsburgh Pirates should pull out all of the stops to make him come to PNC. A lefty masher who has hit 40 home runs or more the last two years and is on pace to do so again this year would be more than ideal. Especially when you consider that Clemente Wall in RF. Alonso could put up career numbers coming to PNC. Now, baseball savant says that PNC would turn a few of those homeruns into doubles due to the height of the wall. Which might be the case, however it does not take away from what he can do, or the fact that the other NLC parks all track him to him more HR than he hit elsewhere. Now as one of the premier FA on the market it is unlikely the Pirates will be able to make him a better offer than the large market teams. Also, chances are he will get in excess of 25 million a year in the deal he signs. However, if the Pirates are serious about winning making him a 3 year 75-million-dollar offer might not entice him, but it will show they are ready to win.

Christian Walker:
Walker does not have the homerun power that Alonso has, nor potentially the name recognition. However, he is very much a guy that would fit perfectly for the Pirates. He puts up the type of numbers that Pirates fans want to see out of Oneil Cruz or Jack Suwinski. The problem is just three years ago in 2021 he was nowhere as effective or had as much power as he has shown over the last two full seasons and this year. Also, there is a question if the Diamondbacks do not work to retain him at years end or before. But if they do not then this would be a good target for the Pirates to grab. He currently makes half of what Alonso does, and based on his track record and age, chances are he would not net the type of salary that Pete would. For example, Rhys Hoskins was coming off of a very similar career path when he signed for 17 million this past off-season. Home run wise PNC is actually rated 5th lowest for Walker over his career. However, Cincinnati is highest followed by Milwaukee, two places the Pirates play quite a bit. To spell it out better Baseball Savant says that the 33 HR he hit last year would roughly equate to 28 in PNC. Again, much like Alonso it would be right to presume that Pirates fans would be grateful for 28 HR first basemen who hits almost .250. Pirates could offer him a 2-year deal worth 35-38 million with some incentives, more than they are typically comfortable with but less than the Alonso cost, and for just slightly worse production.

Players with Opt-out Options:

Cody Bellinger:
Not going to happen. As in no chance that even if he opts out the Pirates would have snowball’s chance in hell of signing him. He would first of all cost too much, and second of all would not be interested (more than likely) in a middling franchise. That all aside he would be a great fit for the team. He played in the NL his whole career and consistently puts up good power numbers with a good triple slash and OPS. Like many of the other players in this list he does not expect to play better at PNC (HR wise) then other places he has played. Once again, Cincinnati and Milwaukee are higher on the list therefore it could end up a bit of a wash. However, his tendency to hit heavily to RF could be good at PNC. Even if balls don’t carry over the Clemente wall careening off of his with his speed could cause havoc. Regardless, if he opts out of his contract it will be because he expects a large increase in years and salary over what is owed. His first option for 2025 is at $27.5 million, with the 2026 option being at $25 million. Therefore, it would be safe to assume he would be looking for $30 million plus a season. So, unless the Pirates suddenly want to offer a 3–4-year contract worth north of $30 million a season, Bellinger will not be playing in the black and gold.

Rhys Hoskins:
Hoskins is arguably the 1B bat that the Pirates should have signed this past offseason. They might have the opportunity to rectify that mistake this offseason. The biggest issue will be if Milwaukee continues to stay ahead in the NLC central and either wins it or is close then me may decide to stay another season. The player option that he holds is for $18 million for the 2025 season. At the quarter way mark on the season Hoskins is looking like he could set a personal best on the homerun front this season. If that ends up being the case it is possible he would opt out and make a play for a bigger pay day. The majority of the hits Hoskins has gone to left field, with the 325 corners in PNC that could be helpful for Hoskins. Baseball savant doesn’t think so ranking PNC 4th worst for Hoskins HR numbers. However, for a team that is in desperate need for a power hitting 1B Hoskins would be a very good fit for a younger Pirates team. Much like Bellinger it is very unlikely that Hoskins would want to come play for the Pirates. Also, when you consider it would take a 2-3 year offer of potentially $23-26 million a season it seems like a match not well made.

Players with Player Options:

Wilmer Flores:
Flores has a player option for next season; however it is possible that he declines it to test free agency with so few 1B scheduled to enter it. The option is for 5.5 million, he could easily get more than that on the open market if a team is desperate enough, enter the Pittsburgh Pirates. Unlike most of the other players on this list Flores is not a flashy option. Also, unlike many of the other he has spent near equal time playing second base and third base. So cheap, plays multiple positions, might not be super wanted in free agency by big market teams, now who sounds like the perfect suitor for him? He is not the home run monster the list is mostly filled with, he splits his power between doubles and home runs. Over his last three seasons in San Francisco he has hit 60 home runs and 66 doubles. While not the upgrade that Pirates fan deserve a guy who could hit 20 doubles and 20 homeruns would be a good boost in their lineup. Of course in Pittsburgh those 60 home runs become 49, but that is still better than they have been getting out of the position. Furthermore, the fact they could get him for less than 10 million, even if it was a 1 year 8.5 million deal. Means he might be one of the most likely on the list to be an option come the offseason, buy only if he opts out.

Players with Team Options:

Anthony Rizzo:
Rizzo is a player with a team option to a club that loves to spend more money than 90% of the other teams out there. He will be 35 years old to start next season, therefore at a club option of $17 million he will more than likely be retained by the New York Yankees. Especially considering the resurgence he has shown this season to date. If he can remain injury free, he appears to be on pace for numbers close to his career average and to play in more games, than he has in a number of seasons. However, it is going to come down to a number of factors for the Yankees, including potential extensions for Gleyber Torres and Juan Soto. If they want to keep Soto and Torres, they do and should, they may need to cut money elsewhere, i.e. Rizzo. While statically Rizzo is playing well this season and using the whole field to get his hits in his rankings on Baseball Savant are not where you want to see them in the mostly average to below average categories. The only category he currently ranks great in at the quarter way point is Batting Run Value. Which brings us to the where the Pirates may be able to take advantage of the situation. If the Pirates are serious about winning and if the Yankees are looking to save money going into the offseason, maybe a trade idea is hatched. To buyout the option the Yankees would be on the hook for $6 million, the Pirates could offer to trade for Rizzo (maybe even getting the Yankees to eat $5 million) and get a good hitting 1B at a more Pirate friendly cost point. Now the Pirates would need to be willing to pay him between $12-17 million next year, as well as move a piece to do so. But if the Yankees are in a position where they need or want to move cap off their books this could be a way to do it and get something useful back. When free agents typically do not want to come to your organization it is time to get crafty, and this might be the right situation to do it in.

Ryan O’Hearn:
O’Hearn should be a player the Pirates begin targeting immediately. O’Hearn has been an underutilized player for a number of years. He played for Kansas City for a number of seasons and has been with Baltimore for the last two years. Last year he set career highs in a number of statistical categories including doubles, home runs (tied career high) RBI and OPS to name a few. This year he is looking to outdo himself once again and is looking very good at the quarter way mark. Baseball savant agrees as he is in the great range for every offensive category except Hard-hit % and LA Sweet-spot %. The best part he only makes $3.5 million this season and has only a $7.5 million option for next, though that could go to $8.5 million based on GP. Either is a very reasonable amount of the poverty franchise Pittsburgh Pirates. The reason why he is a player to target now is twofold. One, the Orioles are stacked offensively and will be looking to get at bats for their young talents like Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo. So as one of the older and “more expensive” players on the team O’Hearn could be traded sooner rather than later. If the Pirates could find a way to match up as a trade partner O’Hearn could slot easily in as the top 1B option for the Pirates. O’Hearn tends to spray the ball around a bit, not as much as Rizzo, but still enough to be useful. His power typically goes to right, right center and center fields, which might not be the best at PNC, though anything would be an upgrade over what is currently being trotted out. It’s possible that O’Hearn is having a flash in the pan season. Even if he is the price point on him to acquire likely wouldn’t be high. If that is indeed the case, the Pirates need to make the call and sooner rather than later.

In the end none of these guys will more than likely end up on the Pirates. For a multitude of reasons, the Pirates tend not to sign “big name” guys or expensive guys. Part of this is because most big-name free agents want to go to better franchises. The other is the Pirates have an owner that is more concerned with the bottom line then the product on the field. However, with two electric starting pitchers just starting to accrue service time and a weak overall lineup it would be the best place to spend money. Furthermore, if Jone and Skenes continue to show up and ball out, then this might slowly start to become a team that bigger named guys want to play for.