North Shore Nine

Welcome to the weekly Scouting Prospects; The Top 30 series. Each week we will take a look at a different one of the Pirates Top 30 prospects, with a few bonus “double drop” weeks. The format of these articles will highlight and discuss the following.

• Scouting Score
• Performance
• Expectations
• Projected Debut
  
  When it comes to scouting grades, the scale used is 20-80. So, a 20-30 grade would be considered well below average. A 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is above average (Also called Plus) and 70-80 is well above average (or Plus Plus). For prospects the overall grade is where scouts expect the player to perform once in the majors. For example, a 65 grade would be an All-Star caliber standout player, whereas a 50 would be an everyday player and a 40 would be a bench player.

Bubba Chandler:
Bubba Chandler was drafted at 72nd overall in the third round of the 2021 draft. A 1st round talent who was skipped by many due to sing ability concerns. This was due to him planning to go to Clemson to play football and baseball. But just like with the player selected before him, Anthony Solometo, the Pirates were able to go over slot with taking Henry Davis at 1:1. Chandler was drafted as a 2-wayplayer as a starting pitcher and a shortstop. However, in 2023 he decided to focus only on pitching and stopped spending time at SS. Which is why he only has a scouting score for his pitching.

So Chandler’s most recent scouting report has him with a plus fastball, a near plus slider and average curveball and changeup. His scouting profile is very similar to Jared Jones, who rated slightly better with the fastball and curveball, same with slider and change, worse on control and same on overall. Chandlers’ fastball currently sits comfortably in the mid 90’s and it can get into the upper 90’s at times. If like Jones, and Paul Skenes, he can even get another MPH on that fastball he could become even better than what he has already shown. His secondary pitch of choice has been his slider with comes to the plate in the upper 80’s. Continuing to work on these pitches, as well as his curve and change, will give him a proven effective four pitch mix as he progresses toward the Majors. So far this season in AA Chandler has been making good progress.

In five starts and one relief appearance, due to rainouts effecting the schedule, Chandler has been quite effective. In 20.1 innings he has given up seven runs off of 14 hits. He has struck out 23 batters which while not Skenes level is quite good, the issue is he has also given up 10 walks. Though his WHIP is a good 1.180 and he is averaging 10.2 strikeouts per nine. Accomplishing all of this while only 21 years old. It is a very encouraging start after being promoted end of last year from high A. It is also reminiscent to what Jones did at 21 in AA before getting the bump to AAA and then to the show the following year. If Chandler can follow a similar path, then the Pirates will be in a very good situation. But it does bring into question what fair expectations are to have for Bubba Chandler.

Expectations are high on Chandler; he is 5th on the Pirates top prospect list just behind pitchers like Paul Skenes and Jared Jones. To further bolster that he was also on the Top 100 lists of Baseball America and Major League Baseball before the 2024 season got underway. With the graduations that have and will occur from those lists he will easily climb them into the mid and final season versions. Expectations are high for him across baseball, high for him within the Pirates organization, and even higher for Pirates fans. However, expect at least another half season at AA. If he continues to pitch as he has so far this year then he could be promoted to AAA toward the end of the season. For more futuristic expectation, it is expected for him to be a mid-rotation arm, a guy to fit in behind Skenes, Jones and Mitch Keller. However, that isn’t to say he will pitch worse than them, he is pitching very similarly (and scouts very similarly) to what Keller did at 22 the year before his call up. So if that is the expectation, or fingers crossed, likely result then Pirate brass are probably salivating at the future rotation. Which brings up when to expect Bubba Chandler in the black and gold of the Pirates.

2025 is the projected ETA by most pundits. If all goes right then mid to late 2025 is not out of reach, though early 2026 would be a more conservative approach, with the potential for a 2025 cup of coffee. With Jones, Keller and Skenes already in the rotation, and guys like Quinn Priester, Bailey Falter, Domingo German, Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows ready or in the wings. It would be hard to crash the rotation in 2025 for any significant time, unless the injury bug does something awful to the Pirates. Or unless Chandler forces his way onto the team like Jones did this year. Regardless of when exactly he arrives, when he does it will be a good day for Pirates fans.