North Shore Nine

Jeff Passan has reported that the Chicago White Sox will be entertaining offers on several high-value targets, including Luis Robert Jr. Since this report came out—and for a fair amount of time before—Pirates fans have clamored for Ben Cherrington to pick up the phone and get a deal done. But what would that deal potentially look like? And has there been a more recent deal that could be used as a comparison? Furthermore, would Pirates fans be able to stomach a deal and what it takes?

There is one trade that occurred just two seasons ago that is a good comparison. That would be the trade that sent Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres for Luke Voit, MacKenzie Gore, C.J. Abrams, Robert Hassell III, James Wood, and Jarlin Susana. This was a blockbuster of the highest order as the Padres gave up their #1, #3, and #15 prospects along with Gore and Abrams. Gore had been a top prospect before losing his rookie status the previous year, as had Abrams (who had been their #1 prospect the previous season). Now, we can ignore Voit as part of the returned value as he was added after Eric Hosmer refused to be traded and was pretty much a money dump (being paid $5.45 million that season). It also needs to be acknowledged that Hassell III was the 21st overall prospect in baseball and Wood was 88th. No matter how you slice the deal, the return for Soto was significant and included two Top 100 prospects and another good prospect and young piece. This brings us to the next question: what could this mean for Luis Robert Jr.?

The above image is a comparison of Robert Jr. and Soto. Robert Jr.’s statistics are from 2022 through May 2024 and Soto’s are from 2021 through 2022—the former is the two seasons before and two months of the current season and the latter represents Soto’s last full season with Washington and the season he was traded to San Diego. While Robert Jr. is about three years older than Soto was at the time of his trade, their statistics are nearly identical, and if you were to equalize the amount of PA each had, more than likely many green lines would switch sides. This would indicate the value could be nearly identical, especially when considering Robert Jr. is locked up for three seasons based on this one at 15, 20, and 20 million per. So, what type of package would the Pirates need to put together to bring Robert Jr. into the fold?

In 2022, Abrams had an overall scouting score of 60, Hassell III 55, Gore 55, Wood 55, and Susana 50. So, who could the Pirates send in an offer of similar value? Termarr Johnson (55) and Bubba Chandler (55) might need to be the starting point. Two pre-season Top 100 prospects and the Pirates’ 2nd and 3rd best Prospects (soon to be 1st and 2nd). Other options in the top billing spots could be guys like Anthony Solometo (55), Thomas Harrington (50), and Mitch Jebb (50). In addition to them, the Pirates would likely need to include one or two of the following as well: Tsung-Che Cheng (45), Zander Mueth (45), Hunter Barco (45), Michael Kennedy (45), Yordany De Los Santos (45). The Pirates could also offer guys that have just fallen off the top prospect list, meaning Quinn Priester (55), Liover Peguero (50), or Ji-Hwan Bae (45) all could be options if the White Sox were interested. A lot of this would depend on what the White Sox are after in a trade, and how young they would be looking for on prospect return. For example, Johnson, Solometo, Jebb, and Cheng have all had slow or bad starts to the season, whereas Chandler, Harrington, Mueth, Barco, Kennedy, and De Los Sandos have all had really good years to date. If the Pirates were lucky, and the White Sox front office decided to do their best impression of the Bucs, then they would only pick guys off that second list. However, that seems very unlikely.

Prediction: to ensure a deal is done, the Pirates would likely need to offer Johnson, Chandler, Cheng/Peguero, and Barco/Priester. It is a trade that many Pirates fans would have a hard time swallowing. However, when taking a step back and looking at the Pirates’ needs and strengths, it is one that should be able to go down like a spoonful of honey. The addition of a bat and glove like Robert Jr. would be a difference-maker for the Pirates. At 26 years old, he is also perfectly aged for the Pirates’ potential window. If the Pirates are serious about winning they should do this trade regardless of cost.