North Shore Nine

Reports have been surfacing for a week or two that Pete Alonso might be switching teams by the deadline. The New York Mets have been unable to tie him down with an extension, and they stand 16.5 out in the East, though only 3 out of the Wild Card. However, looking down the barrel at a great player unwilling to re-sign, they may be resigned to having to trade him. Would Alonso be a good fit for the Pirates? And what would a potential deal look like?

In 2023 Josh Bell was traded to the Miami Marlins for former 16th overall selection Kahlil Watson. Watson was the #1 prospect in the Marlins’ system in 2022 but had fallen to 13th in 2023 before he was traded. In 2021, the Giants acquired Kris Bryant in a trade with the Cubs for Alexander Canario and Caleb Kilian, their then 9th and 30th best prospects. Bryant was having a very similar year in 2021 to what Alonso is having so far this season. In the Bell trade, the return as stated was a previously very high draft pick who had been given a 50 overall scouting score in 2022 that dipped to 45 in 2023 before he was traded. In the 2021 Bryant deal, the players sent in return had an overall of 50 and 45, respectively. While the market has changed over the last few years, the Bryant trade is likely the best comparison, so let’s compare Bryant and Alonso.

This compares similar seasons for the two players, 2019-2021 for Bryant and 2022-2024 for Alonso. These seasons also happen to be when each was 27-29 years old. What stands out is the Home Run and RBI difference between the two players. Even when you consider that Alonso had nearly 300 more plate appearances, he would still likely lead in both HR and RBI based on the differential. However, the Hits would likely swing to Bryant, though it is impossible to determine what it would do to BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, and OPS+. Regardless of how the stats could have shaken out, it points toward a similar—if not slightly higher—return package for Alonso.

So, what would a Pirates package look like? The Pirates’ current 9th and 30th best prospects are Jack Brannigan and Charles McAdoo, who are currently rated as 45 and 40 overalls at the moment. To give a similar 50 and 45 package, it would involve one of Thomas Harrington, Braxton Ashcraft, or Mitch Jebb. It would also mean including one of Tsung-Che Cheng, Brannigan, Mike Burrows, Lonnie White Jr., Zander Mueth, Huner Barco, Michael Kennedy, Shalin Polanco, Yordany De Los Santos, Jun-Seok Shim, or Garret Forrester. Alonso is absolutely worth one of those first three players and one of the bigger secondary lists. It is possible that the Mets would want one of Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo, or Termarr Johnson for Alonso, but based on his remaining contract length, it is impossible to believe Ben Cherington would include one of those three in a trade.

It is hard to imagine the Pirates giving up big-time prospects for a player who is a pure rental with a nearly 0% chance of re-signing. This means the likelihood of an Alonso trade is very small.

However, the one thing that could work in the Pirates’ favor is one thing that might be unexpected: money. There have been recent reports/speculation that the Mets might need to eat the rest of Alonso’s salary to get their best package. The Pirates could attempt to flip that script and require no money to be attached to Alonso in a trade. This could be very important if it means the Pirates do not need to tap into their high-end prospects for a rental. However, it takes two to tango; if the Mets put the emphasis on talent and not on money then the Pirates may not be the best partner. In the end, it is unlikely the Pirates would use a top prospect to get a rental, even one as good as Alonso. If the price to acquire him is reasonable, then he would be a great addition to the lineup and would get even more fans coming to the ballpark.