North Shore Nine

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected Zander Mueth, one of the top prep arms in the 2023 MLB Draft, with their competitive balance pick. In an underwhelming draft of under-slotting ceiling collegiate pitching, Mueth was the rare exception of using the Paul Skenes savings on an intriguing young arm, much like Bubba Chandler and Anthony Solometo back in the 2021 draft. Along with being among the highest-rated prep pitchers, he has one of the most unique deliveries of any pitcher from that draft.

Mueth’s Pitch Mix

Mueth runs a classic 3-pitch mix of fastball, slider, and changeup. His fastball sits at 93-95 but has been seen to top out at 97. Considering his age and his frame that has yet to fill out, it’s not unreasonable to assume that he can add a few ticks in velocity as he grows and plays professional ball. What I like most is the combination of deception he brings from the 3/4 arm slot (we will go deeper into this later) and his fastball’s sinking motion. This makes the ball seem faster than it is and has the movement to confuse hitters. However, until he can consistently dot fastballs in the 95 range, this won’t be as effective as you would like it. Again, though, he has plenty of time and room to grow there. He stands 6’6″ and only weighs 190 pounds. Bulking up is inevitable and should result in more velocity of development correctly.

Mueth’s most intriguing stuff comes in the form of his breaking pitches. He hasn’t been able to throw it for consistent strikes, but I absolutely love the movement on his changeup. It has a similar sinking motion to his fastball providing deception and making it really hard to hit when he finds the zone. You would like to see some more velocity difference between his change and his fastball to achieve better results with the pitch. Overall he lacks general command with his breaking pitches but this is fairly normal with young high school arms.

His third pitch is the Pirates special, and probably a major reason why they wanted Zander in the first place. His slider sits around 81 mph and I would generally classify it more as a sweeper. It breaks the opposite way of his fastball and has a ton of break to it. You can really see this becoming his finishing pitch, even if development-wise it’s not there yet. It is common with young guys who have a slider with lots of movement to be inaccurate, and Mueth is no exception. Sometimes it breaks so much that it ends up deep into the opposite batter’s box. When the slider is anywhere near the zone the result is usually devastating stuff.

The key takeaway from looking at Zander Mueth’s raw stuff is that you have a pitcher with the upside of carrying 3 plus pitches, the talent is already there. It is now up to the Pirates to take this talent and transform it into someone who has the pitching control to truly weaponize those pitches. Mueth already has pretty good fastball control for his age so now it’s time to see how he fixes his breaking stuff that can make him a truly special pitcher.

Mueth’s Delivery and Player Comps

Mueth has a very unique 3/4 arm slot delivery. Despite looking a bit funky it’s very smooth and Zander has no problem using his long arms to get the extension and to put a real zip on the ball. The comp Mueth usually gets is to Tanner Houck of the Boston Red Sox, as they’re both 3/4 slot guys who depend on their slider to get outs (and they’re both from Illinois). However, I think one of the best Mueth comps is currently in the Pirates organization, another 3/4 arm slot pitcher who uses his arm like a whip to deceive hitters with his extension. That pitcher is Anthony Solometo.

Their deliveries look almost identical, with great extension with an emphasis on trying to confuse the batter with what pitch is coming out of the hand. What I like about Mueth here is that he already has the velocity on hand. You have guys like Solometo Bailey Falter or Jackson Wolfe who rely on an extension to make their 89 mph fastballs seem faster than they are. Mueth is applying this to his fastball which already sits 95 and can top out at 97. Solometo has proven to have better-breaking stuff so far but in terms of ceiling, I see Mueth as much higher than Solometo, since he is never going to have to worry about velocity and depend on the extension to get his fastball up to speed with the rest of the league. Instead, you have a guy who can sit 95 and make it look 97-98.

Conclusion

It’s hard to come to any real conclusions about a guy who has yet to pitch in pro baseball. However, Mueth is one of my picks for a prospect I expect to break out as he navigates Bradenton and his first year of pro baseball. I am interested in watching how the Pirates approach the development of his slider and change-up because those two pitchers are going to determine whether or not Zander has a future in the big leagues or not.