North Shore Nine

Who will be the next Bucco Blast? This is a player who, during the previous season, ranked in the bottom third of the MLB top prospects for the Pirates. In back-to-back seasons we have seen a player come out of relatively nowhere to play well for the Pirates. These players are guys that have not been ranked on any of the national ranking systems. They are not highly touted prospects like Oneil Cruz, Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero, Mitch Keller, or Ke’Byran Hayes. To try to determine if we will have a new Bucco surprise this year, we will look at three players blindly. Two will be guys currently on the Pittsburgh Pirates, themselves former surprises. The other will be a player who could make a similar career jump this season.  We will compare these players using simple metrics:

• We will first look at their scouting scores and reports.
• We will look at their last full minor league season.
• We will look at the partial minor league season before their call-up and reveal each player.

 Scouting:

MLB scouts use the 20-80 scale with the standard deviation being 50, this equates to a league average player.  When it comes to our mystery group, the 45 overall players would be considered platoon-type players, whereas the 40 rated players would be considered bench players. There are, “estimated,” MLB statistics that are associated with each grade from a scouting report. For example, Player A with their ratings would be expected to hit .258 with 12 to 15 home runs while Players B and C would be expected to hit .248 with 15 to 18 home runs and .248 with 19 to 22 home runs respectively. The “Run” rating is used to measure how fast it is expected for a player to go from home to first base. In that category, Players A, B, and C are expected to make that trip in 4.35, 4.3, and 4.5 seconds respectively. For “Field” the scale is used to attempt to determine outs above average (OAA). In this, our players grade at 4-6 OAA for Player A, while B and C rate at negative 1 to negative 3 OAA.

The purpose of the grades is to attempt to project how a player will perform. In the case of Player A, we get a player who will be an average hitter with fringe power, fringe running, and plus defense. Player B grades out as a fringe hitter with average power and average running with fringe fielding. Player C grades out as a fringe hitter, with above-average power, poor running, and a fringe fielder. With those grades in mind, we now turn to how each performed in their last full minor league season.

Year before the Call-Up

Player A was 24 years old the year before his call-up and played the full season at the AA level. They had a dominant season at the plate. As seen in the two charts below, he had a good triple slash with a good OPS and had a nice combination of power numbers and stolen bases. Player B also had a good year in AA the year before he was called up. Good triple slash with a great OPS and high-end power output. Player C, the year before their potential call-up, was in AAA at 22 years old. Their stats were not as good as what the other two had put up in AA. A below-average triple slash with a lower OPS, the power numbers appear a bit low as well, even when you try to project them out. Now, in the case of both Players A and B, their play got them up to AAA to start the next season, whereas Player C will start their second season at that level in 2024. In the partial season they had before the call to the show, how did Players A and B perform at AAA?

Start of the Year Before the Call-Up

Player A continued to play well in his time in AAA, generating good numbers across the board before getting called up to Pittsburgh in 2023. Once in Pittsburgh, he played even better than anyone expected, filling in for an injured Hayes at 3B. Jared Triolo was a very pleasant surprise in 2023, playing well above the “platoon level” grading he received as a prospect. Moving into 2024, it will be interesting to see what he can do in his second season with the Pirates and if he can lock down a full-time position.

Player B didn’t have the best stats in AAA before his call-up to the Majors in 2022. What gave fans something to cheer for was the 19 home runs that Jack Suwinski hit. In his second season, Suwinski played even better, spending most of the season as the team’s Centerfielder. If he can make yet another stride this season, he will permanently shake off that “bench player” scouting grade he received when coming up through the system.

Player C will certainly start the 2024 season at AAA once again, hopefully continuing to make adjustments at that level. He will be 23 to start the AAA season, the same age Suwinski was when he made the jump to the MLB. He also plays a position of need for the Pirates. So, if Rowdy Tellez fails to impress, or is dealt, or if no one else steps up to claim the 1^st base position, then we could potentially see Malcom Nuñez this year in Pittsburgh. 

There is no rhyme or reason to how a player will react after being called up to the Majors. Clearly, Triolo came up last season and played surprisingly well with the playing time he was granted. Suwinski came up and struggled a little bit in his first season; however, he played better in his second season and appears poised to break out further moving into 2024. Fans love to see top-rated prospects get called up and make huge impacts; however, most of those who play in the MLB were not top-rated prospects, many were lower-rated or even unheard-of prospects. If the Pirates are to have success—and hopefully sustained success—they will need to have more of the latter type step up and surprise the fans. Suwinski has and Triolo can hopefully follow suit. If Nuñez can be the next player in that vein, then all the better to have a big-time power hitter to fit the need at 1B.  Regardless, it will be exciting for Pirates fans when they see the next Bucco Blast playing in Pittsburgh.