How soon is too soon to discuss Opening Day rosters? And do Spring Training statistics matter? The answer to the first is “never,” and to the second is “no.” 23 games into Spring Training with a 10-13 record. We are now at the 3/4-way mark of Spring Training. With only 7 games left on the slate after the win on 3/17 against Tampa Bay, the roster picture has become much clearer. So, what—if anything—has changed since we last looked at the Pirates roster? As with last week, each position will be looked at and the players within will be discussed as we move closer to Opening Day and the finalized 26-man roster.

Catcher(2): Yasmani Grandal, still has not played since it was reported he had plantar fasciitis. It has been reported he has begun some baseball activities but is not yet able to run. As predicted last week, it seems increasingly likely that Grandal will begin the season on the IL. It should also be assumed that he will need a week or two in AAA once he comes off the IL to get up to game speed. Fortunately, Henry Davis has continued to impress this spring. Rotation hopeful Jared Jones had this to say about Davis recently: “I’ve always loved him behind the plate for me. He’s a bulldog back there. We kind of have that same mindset of ‘eff you’ to the hitter. That’s the type of guy I like behind the plate with me.” Davis will be the opening day starter; the question is who the backup will be. It will be Grandal once he is ready, but until then, it will likely be Jason Delay. Delay has MLB experience and familiarity with many of the Pirates pitchers. Chances are he will be a true backup spelling Davis occasionally with spot starts. Delay has been less than impressive this spring, but he knows the job and will be good enough until Grandal is able to return.

Prediction: Davis and Delay are your Opening Day catchers due to Grandal being on the IL.

First Base(2): Rowdy Tellez has a reported back injury that the team is being “overly cautious” with. Due to this, he has not seen the field since 3/14, so the question becomes: what happens if Tellez is on the IL to start the season? J.D. Davis signed with the A’s so he will not be the answer, nor likely will any other outside help. Connor Joe will likely become a bigger part of the lineup if Tellez misses any significant time; however, with Joe’s lack of success against RHP, there is a good chance that an IL stint for Tellez would open the door for Billy McKinney making the roster to play 1B against RH. He has played 11% of his games at 1B over his career, not a lot of time but enough to bridge the gap until Tellez returns.

Prediction: Tellez is still your starter, with Joe playing some against LH. If Tellez hits the IL to start the year, then Joe and McKinney are your platoon.

Second Base(1): Liover Peguero might be out due to the Flu that has been ravaging the Pirates’ clubhouse. But he is still on track to be the Opening Day starter for the Pirates at 2B. Jared Triolo will also be in the mix and plans to get a healthy amount of playing time at 2B this season. Triolo could easily win the Utility Gold Glove this year, considering he will be playing all over the infield. Termarr Johnson made the most of his time in the big league camp and showed casual fans what to expect from him in the next few years. Nick Gonzales has continued to be less than impressive with his opportunities in the big-league camp. He will be the starter at Indianapolis this year and will need to really work on some things if he wants to crack the Pirate roster at some point.

Prediction: Peguero is your starter, with a healthy amount of time also going to Triolo at 2B; no changes from last week.

Third Base (2): Ke’Bryan Hayes, that is your starter. He continues to look like an All-Star-level player this spring. The only question remaining for Hayes is how high his talents can go this season. Triolo, as mentioned, will also see some time at 3B to give Hayes some rest. Jack Brannigan, Jackson Glenn, and Sergio Alcantara have seen a lot of playing time this spring as the Pirates assess their organizational depth at 3B. Brannigan is more than likely going to start the season in Greensboro and Glenn in Altoona. Considering Alcantara’s age, he will get a look at Indy, but appears to be more of an organizational depth piece and bridge for the Jacks.

Prediction: Ke’Bryan Hayes and Jared Triolo. No change from last week.

Shortstop(1): Oneil Cruz, has the shortstop job locked down. He will get days off with Peguero or Triolo stepping in to spell him. Cruz showed this spring why Pirates fans are so excited to see him back and healthy. If he remains healthy, it will be a very fun team to watch this year.

Prediction: Cruz will be the primary SS this year, with the other guys filling in as needed.

Left Field(1): Jack Suwinski. Suwinski decided to enter one of his hot streaks here after the midway point of ST. In his last four games, he has gone 8-13 with 2 doubles and 3 home runs. It is ST so it doesn’t matter but it is good to see him smoking baseballs again. With the Pirates adding a new CF moving Suwinski back to LF makes the most sense. He has his best defensive metrics in LF, including a career 4 Defensive Runs Saved above Average.

Prediction: Suwinski is your new starting LF.

Center Field(1): Michael A. Taylor, your new Pittsburgh Pirates CF. For the majority of the offseason, many have called for the Pirates to sign Taylor. He set a career-high in home runs last year and is a Gold Glove-winning CF. He sold out his average last year for the increase in power, something he stated he worked to balance this offseason. Regardless, either bat will work for the Pirates and the glove he provides will help immensely for the defense and for the pitchers who are put in front of it.

Prediction: MAT is your CF.

Right Field(1): The Battle for Right Field is officially over and, as predicted, Bryan Reynolds is your winner. Reynolds continues to have a ho-hum spring but he will be ready for opening day.

Prediction: Reynolds is the starter.

Outfield(1): With the addition of MAT, the Pirates have a set starting OF and will need a 4th OF to help rest the starters. Joe will make some starts in RF, but they will need another, more true 4th OF to help. The options appear to be Edward Olivares, Joshua Palacios, and Billy McKinney. Olivares and McKinney have the most MLB experience with 3.055 and 3.087 years of service time, respectively. Palacios has just over a year of service time, though he has the most experience with the Pirates; however, he seems the odd man out at the moment as he is coming back from an injury and has not played well in the limited playing time he has seen. Between Olivares and McKinney, it is a toss-up. Most fans would argue potentially for Olivares, even as he has shown less offensive prowess this spring compared to McKinney. It will be interesting to see who the Pirates go with; however, if Tellez sees time on the IL to start the season, both will be on the OD roster.

Prediction: Olivares, by a slim margin.

Designated Hitter(1): No change from last week this is Andrew McCutchen‘s position.

Prediction: Cutch.

Rotation(5): The top 3 remain the same as they have been: Mitch Keller, Martin Perez, and Marco Gonzales. The question remains: who are the 4th and 5th starters? It’s the same question as the whole offseason. Let’s start with the out-of-options folks, Bailey Falter and Roansy Contreras, neither of whom have had a good spring. The case for Falter is that while he has given up more home runs than any other pitcher, he has also struck out 11 while only walking 2. If you were to play revisionist and take out those home runs, Falter would have his ERA go from 8.03 to 4.46. Sadly, that is not the way real life works, so we have to judge Falter on what has actually happened, and ultimately, he has not done enough to make the rotation, and possibly not enough to make the bullpen. Contreras has only given up 2 home runs this spring, but he has also been very inconsistent with his pitches. He leads the team with 10 walks this spring and has only managed to strike out 4. His lack of options and performance in 2022 makes it slightly more likely that he will make the team with his velocity back to where it needs to be; however, that will not be as part of the rotation. NRI guys, Chase Anderson, Wily Peralta, Josh Fleming, and Brent Honeywell. All four of these options have pitched well this spring, and all are still in the running for a spot on this team; however, it is hard to say who they would get a spot over. None will make the rotation at this point, but it is possible one or two make the back end of the bullpen. Luis Ortiz, Jared Jones, and Quinn Priester all have options available, making it possible for them to start the season in AAA. Of those, Jones has stood out this Spring and has been told that he is in the mix for a rotation spot. In the 11.1 innings he has pitched this spring, he has yet to give up an earned run. His strongest showing was on 3/16 when he faced a mostly complete Braves lineup, going 4 innings, allowing two hits, one walk, and striking out 4. Ortiz had a similar last outing versus the Yankees on 3/15 going 4 innings, allowing 4 hits, one earned run, walking 2, and striking out 4. These two, even with options available, are the clear 4 and 5 starters, with Jones sliding this week into the 4th rotation spot. However, enter Domingo German into the equation. German signed a contract this past week; it is technically a Minor League contract with an invite to ST, and an option for next year. There has been a lot said and written about German and his signing with the Pirates; that will not be covered again here. What will be said, though, is that German will be in the Pirates rotation at some point in April. As long as he can ramp up to pitching in MLB games, and as long as he can continue to prove he has moved past his off-the-field issues. Once he is ready, he will replace one of Jones or Ortiz in the rotation.

Prediction: Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Jones, Ortiz. With German replacing one mid-April.

Bullpen(8): David Bednar, Aroldis Chapman, Colin Holderman, Carmen Mlodzinski, Jose Hernandez, and Ryan Borucki will make the bullpen. All have had an issue or two on the field, or on Instagram; however, none have done anything to keep themselves off the team. We have discussed Contreras and Falter already; it will greatly depend on if the Pirates think they can help the team win, and if they are too afraid to test them on waivers. If they are afraid, then more than likely there are your two final bullpen pieces. If not, then it opens the possibility for some of the NRI pitchers to be added to the roster. It also would allow an internal option like Hunter Stratton to make the bullpen.

Prediction: Bednar, Chapman, Holderman, Mlodzinski, Hernandez, Borucki, Falter, Contreras. No change from last week; however, Falter is very close to losing this predicted spot to an NRI (Anderson).