North Shore Nine

During Spring Training, Mitch Keller signed a four-year team extension and the fan base rejoiced. Now, just two starts into the season, fans are wailing and gnashing their teeth, bemoaning their poor luck. They need to listen to the wise words of A.J. Burnett and “STFD.”

Neither of Keller’s starts have been good. He has given up way too many hits which have led to a number of earned runs allowed. He hasn’t walked too many, fortunately, and his strikeouts grew in his second outing; however, his percentage of strikes thrown was down in the second game and sits at 68% on the season. While still very early, this would be a career-high for him. The issues he is having are his strikes looking is down about 8% and his balls in play is up 9%. Which brings us to the question: what pitches he is using?

So far in 2024, he has increased his usage of his cutter and Sweeper by 3.6% and 4% respectively. Of the 169 pitches he has thrown, 81 have been the cutter or sweeper. The pitch he hasn’t been using as much is his sinker. This would lead one to believe his cutter and sweeper are the issues for his early season struggles; however, opponents are hitting those two pitches the worst off of Keller at .222 and .200 respectively. It is actually his sinker and change that are getting smoked at a .500 and 1.000 clip, respectively. The actual issue, if there is one, is velocity. In the early going, all of his pitches except his sweeper are down .5 MPH, though the fastball is currently down 1.2 MPH. But, early in the season, it’s hard to justify averages versus previous seasons. So while it is something to monitor, it isn’t a cause for concern just yet.

So, where does Keller go from here? Unless there is an injury, which is not evident, then it’s a wait-and-see game. Many good pitchers have early-season struggles. Keller himself was a bit slow out of the gate last season. While it might not have been as slow there is still no reason for concern. There could be a thousand benign reasons for the start. He might have put a lot of pressure on himself after his extension. He might be suffering from a rough(ish) spring. Or one of a thousand other things. The point is that he was given the extension for a reason and there should be no fear he won’t earn every dollar of it. Fear not, Pirates fans. The best is yet to come.