The Pirates dropped tonight’s game 5-4 after trying to recover from a rough Mitch Keller start. The Nationals attacked Keller early, scoring a quick three runs off of him in the first. The Pirates tried valiantly to make a comeback from 5-1, including yet another Brandon Lowe home run and Marcell Ozuna finally waking up and driving in a run. The bullpen did their job shutting down the Nationals offense for 4 innings but ultimately going 1-for-9 with RISP tonight prevented the Pirates from accomplishing the comeback. The Pirates are now 10-7 and are tied at one game a piece in this current four-game set with the Nationals. And don’t forget to check out the NS9 Postgame Show on YouTube as Jim and Doug broke this one down here. Now, let’s get into my three takeaways from this game.
Mitch Keller’s Bad Start is an Outlier for the Rotation
Mitch Keller was quite bad tonight after starting off the season with a 1.00 ERA over his first two starts. Over four innings of work, he gave up 6 hits, walked 4 batters, and left the game with 5 earned runs to his name. Instead of ragging on Keller, I want to use this to show just how absurdly good the Pirates starting rotation has been since the season started. Keller became the first Pirates starter to give up more than three earned runs in a start since Paul Skenes‘ catastrophic opening day start, where he was chased from the game in the first inning. This is only the 5th time the Pirates have let teams score more than 4 runs against them in a game. Checking in on the score and seeing them give up 3 runs in the first inning was jarring because our pitchers have been performing at an elite level so far. Mitch’s struggles do lead into the familiar problem of walks that have been plaguing the team, but overall things are looking good for the pitching staff despite Keller not having his best stuff. It is also important to note that the Nationals offense has been quite good to start the year. The Brewers know this too well, as the Nationals averaged 6 runs a night against them.
Pirates Offense Deeply Unlucky Tonight?
The Pirates offense did a commendable job battling back from a 5-1 deficit but could not complete the job despite threatening with base runners in the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. The Pirates registered a staggering 17 hard hit balls in play according to Baseball Savant, compared to the 7 from the Nationals. This includes 2 from Cruz, 2 from Reynolds, 3 from Ozuna, 2 from Gonzales, Mangum and Griffin. It felt like the entire Pirates lineup was seeing the ball well. Despite this, the Pirates were able to only plate 4 runs and lose a close 1-run ballgame. The most heart breaking moments of this was Nick Yorke‘s double play with the bases loaded, a ball that was smoked 101 mph. The second was Ozuna in the 8th hitting a ball 100 mph to left field and still resulting in an out despite a high xBA. There were lots of moments that the Pirates became very close to tying and winning this game, so I am more calm about a brutal 1-for-9 with RISP tonight. Baseball is a cruel game, the Pirates offense continues to mash, and unfortunately the balls did not drop into play like we needed them to.
Stick with Your Best Players
From a logical standpoint, pinch-hitting Brandon Lowe against a left-handed pitcher with the bases loaded in the 7th inning makes sense. Nick Yorke has been hitting well, and Lowe has been pretty terrible against left-handed pitching this season. Don Kelly made a logical decision, and it almost worked out as Nick Yorke scorched the baseball. Unfortunately, his ball ended up starting a rally-killing double play, and the Pirates never scored the tying run. However, Brandon Lowe is a very hot and cold hitter, and he is in the middle of a heater. He has 4 home runs in his last 3 games, had already hit a home run earlier in the game, and had reached base twice tonight. He is our best hitter, and on principle I believe you need to trust your best hitters to deliver in clutch situations. If we were still running Tucupita Marcano or Ji Hwan Bae out there in the infield, playing matchups makes a ton of sense; unfortunately, it doesn’t play nearly as well as pinch hitting for the second best offensive second baseman of the current decade. It is far from a decision that cost the team the game because they had ample amounts of opportunities to secure another run, but it meant they were not allowed to use their best hitter with runners on base in both the 7th and 9th innings, which is not a situation you want to be in down one run.
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