The NS9 Report is the start to your week. Posted bright and early every Monday morning, I’ll break down the three things that I’m looking for each week in Pirates land.
What’s in a Loss?
Yesterday in San Francisco, the Pirates had a two-run lead three different times in the game only to blow each one and end up losing in 12 innings 7-6 to the Giants. It was about the 7th or 8th time we’ve seen so far this season where the Pirates lost a game they should have won. These were very winnable games. After the loss, there were some takes Sunday evening on the Twitter machine:
Nick Gonzales‘s Mustache makes a good point here, fans obviously get frustrated when the Pirates lose a game like Sunday’s game where they had it in the bag and should have been a win. I mean just imagine if they had won 5 of those 7-8 winnable games that they lost…they’re 22-19 right now (not bad), but they could be 27-14 had they locked up some of those wins and it’d be a completely different vibe on the season with that record. But is it true that most of their games are winnable games this season because of the stellar starting pitching they’ve been getting. They’re in nearly every game. Even in Bubba Chandler‘s starts, who’s arguably been our worst SP so far this season, when he has exited the team is either winning or down just one or two runs. They’re in the game still. And the offense is more competent this year than in the past. It’s different from other years.
So are we more frustrated by every close loss as opposed to a just not being in the game at all? If we have our SP go out and get rocked one day for 7 runs and lose 8-2, those losses don’t seem to hit as hard, right? There’s nothing you can really do about a loss like that besides get back up tomorrow for the next game. But so far in 2026, those kind of losses are rare…which to NGM’s point is a good thing…right? The Pirates have only had two losses out of 19 where they lost by six or more runs. They had four more losses where they lost by five runs, but besides those six losses, every game has been close. They’ve played seven extra-inning games so far and are 3-4 (feels like 1-6 doesn’t it?)
With all that said, is every loss equal? They all count for one loss in the standings of course, but wouldn’t you rather lose 5-4 in a tough, last-minute loss then a 10-1 drubbing? In the moment, it’s probably not as good for our mental health or stress levels over the course of a season, but having most of your losses be tough close ones instead of more blowouts, tells me the team overall is good and gives you a chance to win every day. Teams like that should create more winning streaks, they should continue to get good starting pitching and eventually start pulling more of the games out by the end of the season. That’s my thought anyway. What do you think? Would you rather have a standard blowout loss or a heartbreaker in the 12th inning?
Bullpen Help
How could I not talk about the bullpen this morning? Look, the bullpen was a concern heading into the season for sure. Could Dennis Santana continue his magic since putting on a Pirates jersey, can Isaac Mattson continue to get batters to swing over his fastball? Would Gregory Soto be a solid addition to the pen? And who else would step up in the middle relief role? The red flags were there, but then the Pirates bullpen looked pretty good for a lot of April. The Pirates pen was ranked 9th in ERA in April with a 3.73 ERA. They were 5th in MLB in FIP with a 3.62 mark. fWAR? The pen was tied for 3rd at 1.2 fWAR. It was manageable, if not good and getting the job done for the most part, but since May 1? Not quite.
In May the Pirates bullpen has posted an ugly 6.38 ERA (26th in MLB), 4.24 xERA (ranked 22nd), 4.12 FIP (ranked 18th), 5.10 xFIP (ranked 27th) and 0.38 WPA (ranked 18th). Add in April 30 when Mattson was rocked, the Pirates bullpen has an ERA of 7.07 since that day. On Sunday, Isaac Mattson relieved Bubba Chandler in the 6th inning of a 4-2 ball game and immediately gave up two runs on three hits to blow the lead as his ERA ballooned out to 4.67 ERA after two-of-his-last-three outings were poor. Maybe it’s just a bad stretch right now for everyone not named Gregory Soto, but you can’t afford to let this go for two more months. Their starting pitching is 10th in innings pitched. They’re giving you solid innings every game…the pen has to be better.
I’m not sure there are any easy answers here. The team has already given Jose Urquidy, Hunter Barco, Cam Sanders and Chris Devenski a shot in the pen and all four of them had ERAs in in the 7’s or higher. Wilber Dotel came up and pitched great from Indy in a short stint, but the Pirates seem to want him to start as he went back to Triple-A to pitch out of the rotation again. Brandan Bidois was one name that was looking up in spring training and you figured he’d get a shot sooner than later, but he’s been struggling at Triple-A to a 7.20 ERA in 15 appearances out of the Indy pen. Whether it’s Jared Jones or Carmen Mlodzinski going to the pen once Jones is called up likely at the end of May, that’ll help but Ben Cherington better be on the phones ASAP to look for some bullpen help because this is the most concerning area of the team right now. It’s needs upgraded, but I’m not sure they can afford to wait until the deadline.
Time to Get Hot at Home
The Pirates finish May with 13 home games at PNC Park against the Rockies, Phillies, Cubs and Twins. So far the Pirates are doing what you need to do on the road…they’re 11-10 which is much better from last year’s awful road record. Play .500 ball on the road and .667 at home is the plan to putting together a good record at the end of the year, but so far the Pirates haven’t hit their stride at home. They’re 11-9 so far, not bad but they have a golden opportunity beginning Tuesday with the Rockies coming in for three games. The Rockies aren’t the horrendous doormat they were last year, but they’re still not good. They sit at 16-25 and even the Phillies who come in this weekend are scuffling at 19-22 and already nine games behind the Braves in the NL East. No wins are easy or guaranteed, but it’s time for the Pirates to get hot and stack some wins at home. You have Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller and Carmen Mlodzinski lined up to the Rockies this week. Go win the series and don’t be afraid to get home and sweep them at home.
In 2016 when the Pirates won 98 games, they were 53-28 at PNC Park and owned their home ballpark from 2013-15. This is their best team since those three years. It’s time to get hot at home and this would be the perfect week to do so.
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