Can the Pirates Afford to Wait on Ben Cherington?

On Monday, the Astros announced that they mutually parted ways with general manager Dana Brown, who was clashing with their team owner, but at the same time had a pretty good track record of success.

The Astros won a World Series. They were competitive for pretty much every year, and even this year, they are in first place in a very bad AL West.

But it was clear that he was not going to be the GM moving forward. The owner, Jim Crane, let him know his decision in mid-August, and they agreed to part ways.

It's a surprising move, one that maybe doesn't make a lot of sense at first glance, but whenever you look at what's going to happen to this sport this winter, it makes sense why the Astros would make the move now, to try to buy a little more time for a GM search,

and for that new GM to have an opportunity to do something before the lockout.

It's an interesting set of circumstances, and one that makes you wonder how difficult would it be to theoretically change general managers this winter.

Good morning, and welcome to OffBeat, here on North Shore Nine, presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

Now, I'm going to start off this podcast by saying I have no insider information to share about Ben Cherington standing with the organization.

And I'm even going to go one step further and say this podcast is not calling for Ben Cherington to be fired or for him to stay on for next year.

This is a very neutral ground.

I just want to look at some factors that make this such a peculiar winter.

A winter where it's going to be as pivotal for the history of this franchise, in the recent history of this franchise.

There's no other way around it.

2027 needs to be a very successful season.

There's just been too much building up to that point.

And this last year has been a disappointing year.

And in a lot of circumstances, whenever your team underachieves on expectations, you wonder how hot everyone's seat is.

Especially so for Cherington.

This is year seven.

And the Pirates went into Monday with a 1% chance at the postseason.

After coming into the year, literally the first day of the offseason last year, Travis Williams gave that period full stop quote.

There were a very clear set of expectations for this year.

And the Pirates underdelivered.

And for a variety of reasons.

Some of which you can't really put on.

Cherington or coaching or management.

The amount of injuries this team has suffered.

They've been tough.

And they've been players in impact positions.

Losing Konnor Griffin for as long as they did.

That really was a blow.

Because they figured this is our shortstop.

He was going to take as many reps as he could as a rookie.

Whenever he gets called up.

He was playing well.

Rehab's going well.

We might see him in early September.

But season probably will be over by early September.

Oneil Cruz.

It was an injury that initially the x-rays were good.

And then it was supposed to be minor.

And then he missed 70 games.

70 days.

Excuse me.

Spencer Horwitz's injuries.

Ryan O'Hearn's injuries.

It's been a tough year on that front.

And if I was Ben Cherington.

Whenever I'm sitting down at the end of the year.

Make it a case to come back for next year.

Not to go straight to excuses.

But that was a big reason why this team did not live up to expectations.

There are other reasons.

The bullpen for two-thirds of the year is one.

The starting rotation not delivering on its very high promise is another.

This was a disappointing year.

And this has been one of the rougher months in recent Pirates history.

After being in a postseason spot less than a month ago.

That's a pretty drastic drop to be down to 1% or sub-1% playoff odds.

In a lot of cases, seven years on the job.

No postseason spot.

You change GMs.

Because after seven years.

Fans justifiably.

Want heads to roll.

And so far.

In seven years.

The only head that has really rolled.

Outside of assistant coaches.

Has been Derek Shelton.

And Shelton at the moment is managing the Twins.

Who could end up sneaking that last playoff spot in the American League.

It's a weak American League year where, 81-82 wins might get the job done.

And the Twins have that in them.

It would be very interesting to see what happens then.

But this is a...

I'm thinking back to 2019 also.

In 2019, the Pirates fired Clint Hurdle on the last day of the season.

And they were planning to go with Neil Huntington moving forward.

And it wasn't until much later that they finally decided to dismiss him.

And by the time that they did have Cherington in place in mid-November, and he immediately has to go into, I've got to find a manager.

I've got to do this managerial search.

Landing Shelton.

There was then just this period of, okay, that was a lot of off-season we missed.

And it ended up being a very quiet off-season.

One where they couldn't reshape the front office.

One where they didn't make a lot of transactions.

You don't want to say it was a wasted off-season, but they were definitely starting behind and playing catch-up the entire time.

And you look at this winter.

There's going to be a lockout starting December 2nd.

And that doesn't leave a lot of time to do everything you want to accomplish.

We don't know how long this lockout is going to last.

I am an optimist.

I think they will be playing baseball in April.

Even then, you don't know when it's going to end.

The last lockout, it ended in like within 48 hours.

Everyone was at spring training.

There were still some signings.

There were still some moves happening.

But it was pretty much gun strain to, you have to get going.

You have to start getting ready.

So that makes the front half of this off-season so important.

That's really the end of what you can control.

And in this case, there are some things this team needs to accomplish.

They need to get their pro scouting.

They need to get that in order.

They need to head for the next amateur draft.

They need to figure out what's happening with Brandon Lowe, what's happening at second base.

They need to figure out coaching.

They need to figure out their front office.

There's a lot of things to do and not a lot of time.

And if you want to make a case for Ben Cherington to return, if you're looking for a new GM, that's a lot of valuable time being spent to just get to getting someone to run this office.

Time is not a luxury.

Time is not a luxury.

That's why the Astros made the move now.

It's why the Athletics made a move earlier this month.

It's why America's team, the Los Angeles Angels, made a move in July.

There's not a lot of time.

And really, if you are starting the offseason, first day of the offseason, if you theoretically clear a house, you're probably behind everyone else again.

In another very pivotal offseason.

Paul Skenes is going to be going into arbitration for the first time.

Oneo Cruz for the second time.

Jared Jones for the first time.

Like, it's a long list where, yeah, a lot of these guys are back in 2027 or under contract.

Brandon Lowe is pretty much the only major exception.

So you still have a core here.

But guys are hitting ARB.

They're getting later.

They're getting more expensive.

You wonder how much longer some of these players are going to stay in Pittsburgh.

Would 2027 be, theoretically, Oneo Cruz's or Paul Skenes's or Ryan O'Hearn's or, like there are a lot of guys who make an impact.

It might be their last year in Pittsburgh.

It probably would be their last year in Pittsburgh, at least some of them, if they have another losing season.

2027, they need to do something.

They need to take that leap.

They don't have a lot of offseason to do it.

And, again, I'm not advocating one way or the other for Ben Cherington's, future here.

But it is a predicament.

Because if you wait to the end of the season and then you start a manager, presumably also maybe a, or general manager, maybe a managerial what also.

Whenever you have that journey, you have that start.

But if the Astros already have their new GM in place, they could start molding.

If the Athletics already have their GM in place, they can start molding.

You'd be finding yourself behind the rest of the league again.

And that's something you can't really afford to do.

I think it's pretty common knowledge at this point that Ben Cherington is still under contract for 2027.

And I don't think that's going to make a big impact on, would he keep his job.

Not that I would imagine, Bob Nunning would be exactly thrilled if he did, perchance, fire Ben Cherington, hire a new GM, and then the lockout happens.

And now he's paid two general managers to not general manage.

I can imagine that's not exactly the most enticing offer.

But he did show with Huntington and Hurdle eating those two years at the end that if he doesn't think that they're the right fit for the organization anymore, he will make the change.

I don't think the fact that Ben Cherington is under contract for 2027 is going to sway one way or the other here.

But it is another factor here.

You don't have to squint to see how close this is to being a competitive club.

If these guys stayed healthy, if this rotation was able to piece it together and maybe rebound in some case in 2027, this could be a contender.

But we've heard a lot of could-haves over the last seven years.

In a lot of cases, I think there would be some pretty wholesale changes, but this is not a normal offseason.

And like I said, I don't have any – I don't want to give an impression one way or the other if I know how this is going.

This is, still early.

It's still quiet.

But it's a big winner.

And the longer they make – they take to make a decision, the more it steers, I think, to maybe you stay in your lane and just hope that this team really is that close.

Because some stuff needs to be accomplished this winter, and they are not going to have the time they usually do to have it.

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