Did the Pirates Play It Too Safe in the 2026 MLB Draft?

It always felt like this draft class had a bit of an Everest decline.

In 2023, the Pirates took Paul Skenes in the first round.

2024, Konnor Griffin.

2025, Seth Hernandez.

Obviously, there's a lot to be written about all three of their careers.

But you've got a Cy Young winner, you've got the holder of the largest contract in franchise history, and you've got arguably the top pitching prospect in the game in three consecutive years.

It's the best three-year run they had on draft picks ever.

And whenever all is said and done, it could end up being the greatest three-year stretch of draft picks in the game's history.

So whenever I look at this 2026 draft class, I feel underwhelmed.

And I don't know how much of that is I'm just not as jazzed about this class, and how much of it is I'm comparing it to the last three years, and it's suffering from that recency bias.

Good morning, and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine, presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

We have to state the obvious first.

You cannot judge a draft class right now.

First of all, you judge it years from now, whenever you see who became a big leaguer, who fizzled out, who maybe got traded for a player that really helped out the team.

There are a lot of ways to evaluate how good a draft class is.

You don't do it on July 12th or July 13th.

So keep that in mind through this whole podcast.

You also can't judge it until you see who actually signs.

Because you could say, this person was a reach in round seven.

Why on earth would they take him until you realize that they spent that money elsewhere later in the draft?

They spread it around.

They weren't exactly just taking a normal first rounder, a normal second, a normal third.

It's like, no, you take a first, a fifth, a fourth, and then a second and a second.

Let's see who all signs.

So with that in mind, it is way too soon to judge this draft class.

But I don't see like a Seth Hernandez or Konnor Griffin here.

And yeah, that wasn't a guarantee.

That's why Konnor Griffin is so special.

If there was always a Konnor Griffin in the draft, man, would we be as excited about Konnor Griffin now?

But whenever you have a top five pick, they had that competitive balance A pick.

They had four of the top 51 picks early on until they traded pick number 34.

On Friday night.

In return, they got left-handed reliever Bryden Eisert and infielder Jacob Gonzalez from the White Sox.

I don't know how much more there is to say here that I didn't put on Book Rule Bucks.

But just to give you the quick skinny, they're projects.

And the trade was probably fair-ish, maybe a slight overpay on the Pirates part.

But they get players who lower ceiling, in my opinion, but can make an immediate impact for this team.

And given how obvious there is, this pressure of you have to win in 2026, I could see why they flipped the draft pick for help right now, rather than just taking someone and hoping that in a couple years, he could be really good.

But that set a weird pace, I feel like, for this whole draft class in general.

Because I see some stretches here.

The most notable being taking Derek Curio with the fifth overall pick.

Now, I'm going to start off by saying he did a Zoom with media.

I think he is, I got a very good impression on the character of this young man.

And that is a big part of the draft process.

You're going to be investing millions of dollars into a kid who's either 18 or in his very early 20s.

You want to make sure they have a good head on their shoulders.

Before you do that, I think he checks that box.

And there are parts of his game that are good.

He's a good runner.

He plays a good outfield defense.

Konnor Griffin told a story about how they were on Team USA together.

And it's like, oh, so Connor, you in center.

He's like, nope, he was in center.

I was in right.

So you get a sense right there of like, okay, good defense.

I'm not crazy about the bat, though.

Like six home runs with a metal bat is a bit of an eyebrow raiser.

For a top five pick for me.

The offensive profile, the comp, the scenario comp I got was like a Stephen Kwan.

And Stephen Kwan is a really good baseball player.

He has earned those gold gloves.

He has earned those all-star nods.

I don't know how I feel about that being a ceiling.

Like Konnor Griffin even brought up like, hey, he, his game reminds me of Jake Mangum's.

And Jake Mangum has been a good addition to this team.

But fifth overall pick, let's see if he can overshoot that.

What type of player he can be.

This really struck me as a collegiate hitter who has traits that maybe could have him be fast-tracked to the major leagues a little.

Than some other players.

But maybe is not as high a ceiling.

We'll see how he develops.

We'll see how it goes.

Aiden Ruiz, one of the best high school defenders in the second round.

Chris Rembrandt at the end of the supplemental round in the second round.

Jason DeCaro in the third.

A pitcher.

And then an outfielder, Andrew Giles in the fourth round.

And, yeah.

I'm going to talk on, after the break, in a little bit about some players who I'm higher on and some I'm not exactly as jazzed about.

Two guys I'm not as jazzed about are in that list.

Right there.

And those are the day one picks.

And that's usually where you have to make the biggest impact.

I'm not as crazy about it.

That said, day two I see some intriguing picks.

They swung, they're taking a couple big swings from picks 11 to 18 of high school players.

That it will take presumably a lot of money for them to forego college.

But if they do land them, you've got a raw young player, but someone who has a high upside.

And if Curiel being taken fifth overall, I'm assuming it will be an underslot deal.

Spreading that money around lands a couple of those guys.

Then you view this draft class maybe a little differently.

I still don't know if it's going to be as exciting as what we've seen the last three years, though.

And whenever you know you're not going to be eligible for a lottery pick next year, I guess I was thinking it might have been a bigger swing.

We're going to take a quick break.

Whenever we come back, two guys I like, two I'm not as excited about from this draft class.

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Okay.

Two guys I like based off just the eye test, reading some stuff on them, just having some chats, with people I trust across the league.

Spencer Evans, the 11th round pick.

Lefty, he's pumping 95, 96.

It's exciting.

I think there's some control issues that he could hammer out.

I know he's a raw project.

I imagine it's going to take a pretty significant signing bonus to have him forego Louisiana State.

I think if there's one guy from these 11 to 20 rounds, it's probably him.

If it's not him, it's Grant Cavell, who hasn't really grown into fastball velocity, but I think he has the bulk to add a little more.

If he does and gives himself an out pitch, I think he could be, a good guy.

But, like, Spencer Evans, I see a high upside.

I see reliever path if the control doesn't pan out.

But, that's still a serviceable player at the end of the day.

I just see enough about his game that I'm very intrigued to see if the Pirates can land him.

The other guy I'm interested in, the 9th round pick, Trey Phelps.

And I got a pretty rave review about the bat speed.

just quick hands, quick bat, able to catch up to high velocities.

It reminds me a little bit of Murf Gray last year, who has made an impact in the Pirate system.

a sleeper, could take off at some point.

Not too far, but like a college bat.

See how he can develop.

Plays the hot corner.

Maybe we'll one day have to go over to first base.

But right now, I like the bat speed.

The mechanics need some work.

He is very much a work in progress.

But I am a sucker for raw tools.

Like, whenever I'm evaluating players, if that has never come through in my writing or my podcasting, let me just flatly state it.

I like raw abilities.

I like raw abilities.

I like, give me something that can be molded.

and I think with Spencer Evans and with Trey Phelps, there are traits that you can grow.

You can continue to develop.

I don't know if they'll be able to fully recognize, what their ceilings are, but how many players actually do.

There's stuff I like here.

Phelps, I'm a lot more confident, will end up signing with the Pirates just because, collegiate hitter, ninth round.

There's actually a slot value attached to it.

Maybe he needs to go over slot.

I don't know how it goes.

But, like, that's the pick I really like.

I think that was a solid mid-day two pick.

The two I'm not as excited about, Aiden Ruiz, their second round pick.

The bat is concerning to me.

I don't know if he has that impact the baseball ability that maybe you would hope for, even at shortstop.

Like, he's a good fielder.

I think he could probably bounce around the infield, but I just see utility infield type here.

Unless the bat can continue to develop.

And then Jason DeCaro, their third round pick.

I'm not really hyped.

Like, whenever he went to college, it was like, yeah, he's going to be the next big thing.

But then he just platooned there.

Like, he just plateaued.

Like, not what he...

He didn't take that next step.

And I got a pretty unflattering review on him.

So, we'll end up seeing with him.

Maybe I'm wrong.

And maybe he just needs to go into a system like Pittsburgh.

Like, I think Josh Hopper, the pitching coordinator, is a terrific pitching mind.

Maybe the team that has been assembled here can help him take that next step.

But normally, whenever you take a guy out of college, they have at least progressed.

I don't know how much he has.

We'll end up seeing.

And we'll end up seeing, whenever this is all said and done, how impactful this draft is.

Like I said, I've been just chatting with some people across the league.

And I've been floating that.

Like, hey, is it bad that I'm underwhelmed by this?

And nobody's really said, no.

This is a great draft.

I had one person who just didn't really like it all that much altogether.

It's...

I like the day two picks, I think, more than the day one.

I think there are some real guys in this day two that have an ability to develop, to maybe become top 30 prospects, to maybe become Major League Baseball players one day.

And if not, be flipped for players as part of trade packages.

We've seen that the last couple of years.

So we'll end up seeing, whenever this is all said and done, got to see who signs.

That's really going to determine.

If they come out of here with Evans and Gavelle, who is the outfielder that they took in the 18th, around another high school, Malachi Washington.

like, if they get those type of guys, this draft could be deep.

With the prep players that have the untapped upside to make it also an impact draft.

But, all in all, right now, on July 12th, I think they need to sign a good chunk of these for this to be a really good draft.

Like, I think they need to come out of here with maybe 20 players.

Which could happen.

Which could happen.

We'll have to see how this goes.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine, presented by FanDuel.

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