Does a Winning Record Actually Matter for the Pirates?

One of my favorite stories I've ever written is the 2013 oral history and talking about that team.

And that story really began, if you talk to Clint Hurdle, back on Clemente Day in 2012.

That team was collapsing, it was an ugly finish, and on the field, the Clemente family and the late Vera Clemente were being recognized, and Vera talked to Clint.

The Pirates were on their way to their 20th straight losing season, and Vera said, you have to win next year.

We can't have Roberto's 21 be associated with that many losing seasons.

It's something that really defined this franchise for a millennial growing up in Pittsburgh.

It was a losing team that had this legendary losing streak.

That franchise was defined by losing the longest streak in the history of North American professional sports.

On Wednesday, the Pirates beat the White Sox 4-2 and got to 73-73.

And while their playoff odds are low, their odds of finishing 500 or better are decently high.

Does that count for anything?

Good morning, and welcome to OffBeat, here on North Shore Nine, presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

I checked the FanGraphs playoff odds going into this podcast after the win.

They have the number at 1.2%.

Apologies if that slightly alters before or after this podcast drops.

They're still in that milk range.

They're still in that 1%, 2% range.

So, playoff odds are still not very good.

And honestly, if you want to come up with a map, here's what it is.

The Padres and the Diamondbacks play each other to wrap the season.

The Pirates' best odds of making the postseason is A, most importantly, taking care of business.

Controlling what you can control.

And trying to rack up as many wins as possible.

Simultaneously, they need either one, or both, but one will do, of the Padres or the Diamondbacks to falter down the stretch.

But then lock in that final series and screw over the other team.

It's not a great chance at the postseason.

And that was the goal coming in.

It was stated by President Travis Williams that the goal was to make the playoffs.

Quote, period, full stop.

End quote.

And failing to make the playoffs is, depending on how you want to use the language, it is either a disappointment or a failure.

This is one of the more talented Pirates teams that, speaking again, as a millennial who grew up in Pittsburgh, who grew up watching this team, this is one of the more talented squads that we have seen.

And honestly, if you want to look towards the future, I think there's reason for optimism in 2027, even with not knowing what's going on with Brandon Lowe.

Even with not knowing exactly what the future holds with this rotation, there's still enough talent here.

There's still enough optimism that, yeah, 2027, they can make the playoffs.

And while I'm fairly pessimistic about a postseason push here at the end of them actually getting to October, I've stated here before, until there's an E next to your name, you're still in it.

But if the postseason is not reasonable, is 81 or 82 wins a good enough consolation prize?

Because, like I said, this is a franchise who, for decades, they were associated with losing.

They did not finish with as many wins as losses for 20 years straight.

And honestly, it extends beyond that.

If you look at the history of the Pirates, recent history, you have the three-year window from 1990 to 1992, where they won three straight division titles, probably should have won a pennant,

heartbreak in 92 and 91.

Three really good teams.

And then you have that 2013 to 2015 stretch.

Again, teams that were good enough to compete for the World Series, especially that 2013 and the 2015 team.

Those teams were good enough to be serious contenders.

They did not advance, but those are special years in Pittsburgh baseball history.

Outside of those years, since 1984, the Pirates have only had two other years where they finished with a winning record.

In 1988, they won 85 games.

And then in 2018, they won 82.

That, 1983, is the last year that Dave Parker played for the Pirates.

So this side of Dave Parker, they've had eight years where they finished with a 500 record or better.

It's been a rough couple decades, honestly, bordering closer to half a century at this point.

And it's at a point where I look at it's like, again, the stated goal was playoffs period, full stop.

But I think 82 counts for something.

I don't say that as in, well, be happy that they won 82, be satisfied that they won 82.

I am not saying that, but it's not nothing.

Because this is a franchise that, at the time of this recording, has had losing seasons in seven straight years.

That's far enough away from, threatening 20 in a row.

But you're over a third of the way there.

You're in a spot that this is the type of team that isn't supposed to go 79 and 83.

This is a team that's supposed to be competing.

And if you go into the off season with, say, 84, 85 wins, or even 82 or 81.

You could go like, all right, well, that was a baby step.

They were supposed to take a big step this year, but they at least are trending in the right direction.

I think 2024 finishing exactly with 76 wins again.

I don't think that, had a great cosmic, effect on this organization, but that was a much more talented team in 2024, and they didn't approve the win total.

And yeah, it just didn't feel like they were taking the step forward that they should have.

This would at least be a definitive step forward in positioning yourself for 2027 and maybe making a more serious run.

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The season is not over yet, and I know I've been a Debbie Downer.

I know I've been, I don't want to say dismissive, but pessimistic about this team's postseason odds the last couple weeks.

But right now, they are 73 and 73.

It's the first time they've been 500 since August 3rd, which is the trade deadline.

This is, believe it or not, the best winning percentage they've had at the end of a day that, like, Luke Weaver has been on this team.

They're playing good ball right now.

They've won five straight series.

You see some pieces come together, and you can have legitimate complaints of being like, were they too complacent in June and July?

Could they have gotten a Luke Weaver or at least a Kirby Yates, in earlier July?

And maybe that would have swung a win in their favor.

Swing and a win against either the Padres or the Diamondbacks, or both.

If they had happened to win just one more game against both of those teams, I think those one point whatever percent playoff odds are, man, you're at least adding a zero at the end of it.

They'd be legitimately, I think, in the postseason discussion.

There are legitimate complaints you can have about how the roster was constructed, the sense of urgency.

They had to add to the team before the deadline.

But at the end of the day, you see the vision.

You see how this team could come together.

And 2027 is a vital year.

I know there's a lot of questions with the lockout.

I am an optimist in that regard.

I think we'll be watching baseball in April because once these owners miss a couple paychecks, miss a couple game checks, everything changes here.

So I think 2027 will be played at the very minimum in part and it is going to be a very important year because you don't know how long you have of Paul Skenes.

Guys like Ryan O'Hearn and Luke Weaver are under contract for one more year.

You don't know how long this offense is going to be together.

It is so, it is going to be perhaps the most important year since 2013 where you just have to win.

And man, would it be a lot more reasonable to expect this organization to take that next step if their winning percentage at least started with a five.

If they could be at least be like, you know what?

There are problems with last year's team but through it all they still won more than they lost and like I said, only eight times since 1983 have they done that.

It's not nothing.

So in answer to that question that you see right here, does a 500 record count for anything?

I would say yes.

It counts for something.

Does it count for enough?

No.

No, it doesn't count for enough because that wasn't the goal.

The team president didn't go out to say go out and say we are going to win 81 games period full stop.

But I think you can build for 2027.

You could set yourself up for future success.

You can be in that mind frame or at the very least a discussion or at the very least whenever you're touting trades

and you're and you're courting free agents.

They'll be like Pirates had a winning record.

They're not too far.

If I want to play for a contender, maybe that's an option for me.

There are a lot of ways that I think finishing with a 500 record or better does better this organization moving forward.

I don't blame you if you think it's a crappy consolation prize or if it's not enough.

I don't think it's enough at the end of the day.

But I don't think it's worthless.

We're going to see how this team comes across.

Maybe the Padres and Diamondbacks will accommodate and this becomes a more thrilling chase to the end.

But that was a good win on Wednesday and it's one of those games where you see a lot of different people contribute in a lot of different ways and you think okay they're not that terribly

far away.

And a good way to position yourself for 2027 is to finish with more wins and losses.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

If you haven't already be sure to subscribe wherever you find podcasts or check us out on YouTube if you want to see my smiling face.

Thank you so much for listening.

We'll talk again tomorrow.

All right.

That wraps up this episode of North Shore Nine.

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