Esmerlyn Valdez Is a Unicorn… But the Pirates Still Need More

I think we can all agree the Pirates would benefit if they got a little more balanced in the lineup in 2027.

This team didn't have that big right-handed bat at the start of the year, but they did find one in season whenever Isberlin Valdez was called up and he emerged.

He is one of the greatest rarities in this game right now, and that's a right-handed rookie power hitter.

But it's still a weird year, and he took a weird path to get to a really good OPS.

Good morning, and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

On Monday, I don't think anyone breathed a deeper sigh of relief than is Esmerlyn Valdez whenever he ran into one in the fifth inning and got the Pirates on the board.

This offense has been wearing it in the second half of the year, and while he was the player of the month in July, the rookie of the month, his August hasn't been great.

He's batting just 200, slugging percentage of 308.

that happens to rookies.

Except, all the while, entering play on Tuesday, he had a 361 OBP in August.

I'm not the first to bring this up, about how he had that really long stretch, like days of not putting a ball in play, but still had a pretty healthy OBP through it all.

He can find ways to get on base.

He has the power that pitchers have to respect him, that they are probably going to pitch on the corners, on the black a little more.

And he has shown that he is willing to lay off a pitch if he doesn't think it's the right swing.

And you look at his season stats, and you're like, yeah, you take that.

You take a 249 batting average, 364 OBP, 541 slug.

That's the reason why you really hang on.

It's a 906 OPS on the year at a 541 slugging percentage.

541 slugging percentage is great in general, but it's a unicorn right now.

We have not seen right-handed hitters take off in this league.

I looked at StatHead, and I pulled up the slugging percentage of hitters the last two years.

Right-handed hitters with at least 100 played appearances, and Valdez's 541 slugging percentage is the highest out of any team, any right-handed hitter.

And you think, wow, that's really good.

It gets even more impressive whenever you look at what's going on throughout the league.

In 2020, the first year after the pretty-juiced ball in 2019, this is closer to what we have today.

In 2020, right-handed hitters slugged 429.

Left-handed hitters slugged 402.

So a slight advantage to the right-handers.

But in years that followed, left-handed slugging percentage went from 402 to 404 to 386 to 416, 404, 410, 405.

It's all been around the same.

Whenever you look at right-handed hitters, they're slugging percentage across the league.

429 in 2020.

415 in 2021.

Then 401, 413, 396 in 2024, 399 last year, and 396 entering play on Tuesday.

I think there could be a variety of reasons why left-handed slugging percentage has been mostly the same.

I think the shift gave them a few extra base hits.

Eliminating shifts helped left-handed hitters more than it helped right-handed hitters.

I think we've seen teams chase velocity a little more, and those pitchers tend to be right-handed.

So if you've got a guy who's throwing 98, 99, maybe you have a harder time.

If you're a right-handed hitter or a left-hander, maybe they run into a few more mistakes.

Whatever the case may be, right-handed power is a scarcity.

And it's something this Pirates team needs.

I think if you ask a lot of people if you could redo the trade deadline, what would you do?

A lot of people would put get a right-handed bat near the top of the list, if not the top.

It's that or get a starting pitcher.

And we have seen this team time and time again get eaten up by lefties.

A soft-tossing lefty just shuts down this offense right now.

Because even with Oneil Cruz, who has pretty good reverse splits this year, Brandon Lowe's not hitting as well.

Guys like Jared Triolo and Nick Gonzales, who usually had good platoon splits, haven't done as well this year.

All the way through the lineup, they just have not been able to produce as much.

That makes what Esmerlyn Valdez does even more important for this team.

He is an important part of the lineup.

It's why, even before he, was the Rookie of the Month in July, he was getting a lot of opportunities because he was taking really good swings.

And it was a team that needed good swings from a right-handed hitter.

Marcelo Zuno wasn't cutting it, so we're going to give it to the kid.

See what he can do.

And it's been a good year, but with a lot of red flags.

I'm sorry, a 43.3% strikeout rate in August is alarming.

I know he's drawing walks, but that means his batting average on balls in play is over 400.

Valdez isn't exactly going to beat out a ton of infield hits.

Yes, I know BABIP is not exactly a perfect stat, but you don't normally see sluggers have a BABIP around 400.

How sustainable is that?

And you're like, well, okay, maybe he just took a step back in August.

The peripherals are worse.

Looking at just his whiff rate?

Fastball whiff rate by month.

38.9% in May, 37% in June, July is 39%, and in August, 34.5% entering Tuesday.

If anything, it's a little better now.

He's making better contact now.

Breaking ball.

45.5% in May, 39.6% in July, 40% in August.

Again, if anything, a little better than what we saw.

We talked in the past about how he'll maybe not be as aggressive for periods.

Like, I think that was part of this August slump that he probably has put behind him, ideally.

Where he got, to borrow the Derek Sheltonism, caught a little in between.

He was having a hard time reading fastballs, sitting back for breaking balls, led to a lot of, a lot of taking pitches.

And he is someone who is going to need to swing the bat.

Not just because that's where his OPS lies, that it's going to be very slugging based.

But that's what the team needs from him.

They need that right-handed slug.

Because right now, there's no other real candidate.

Konnor Griffin is probably the second best, right-handed power hitter on this team.

And even then, he's a rookie.

He's still developing.

He's not a finished product.

He's also younger than Esmerlyn Valdez.

So you have to wonder, what could he catch up to being?

One day he could be this great, middle-of-the-order threat.

But right now, he's probably going to be more valuable being that speedy guy.

Stealing bases, providing good defense up the middle.

And he'll just run into 15-20.

Valdez needs to be bigger.

He's at 15 home runs right now.

And honestly, based on how his season has gone, I could see him finishing him with 17.

I could see him finishing with almost 30.

It just seems like he's going to be a feast or famine type of guy.

A lot of power hitters are.

And he has shown that in those famine times, yeah, he could get on base.

But he hasn't shown that he could make consistent contact.

So you wonder how much of that famine is not being able to just put bat to ball.

That was something that was really stressed to him whenever he was in Bradenton.

like, the potential's there.

You've just got to be able to get the barrel to the ball more.

And he's done that.

He's taken that step.

But this is also the highest game.

Highest level of this game.

And he was in Greensboro, 15 months ago.

The game is throwing a lot at him.

I think he's taken a lot in strides.

And I don't want any words to be misconstrued.

This has been a good rookie year.

This has been one of the better rookie years we've seen from a right-handed pirate outfielder since Jason Bay.

Well, Kach, actually.

I'm just thinking more of that type of, archetype.

That type of player.

the corner outfielder who's going to ideally hit 25 to 30 homers for you.

There is a lot to like about his game.

There is a lot that I still am a bit apprehensive about.

That whenever I look at what this 20-27 lineup could look like, I'm on board.

With making Esmerlyn Valdez a starter for next year, penciling him in to right field or left field, wherever Bryan Reynolds plays.

But I think I need another right-handed bat.

Find a way to get it in.

Maybe that's the replacement.

If Brandon Lowe leaves, maybe if you just find someone to do that Marcell Ozuna role, maybe find another outfielder.

This lineup still needs balance.

And Valdez can be part of it.

But I think he's also shown that whenever he gets cold, this whole offense gets cold against left-handed pitching.

And I can't put the fate of the lineup in the hands of someone who's whiffing, striking out 43.3% of the time.

Yes, he is absolutely a force.

Yes, he is absolutely part of this equation moving forward.

But I'm adding a right-handed hitter to the list unless those whiff rates start to go down, the strikeout rate goes down, and he shows something down this homestretch.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

If you haven't already, be sure to subscribe wherever you find podcasts, or check us out on YouTube if you want to see my smiling face.

Thank you so much for listening.

We will talk again tomorrow.

All right, that wraps up this episode of North Shore Nine.

Thanks so much for tuning in.

Whether you're listening on the podcast or catching us on YouTube, if you enjoyed the show, please give this video a thumbs up.

And don't forget to hit that subscribe button if you haven't already.

It really helps us grow.

And if you're listening on the podcast, a quick review goes a long way in helping others find the show.

Plus, be sure to tell a friend about us.

There's always room for more here in the NS9 community.

And for those looking to support us a little more, consider joining our Patreon, become an MVP member, and get exclusive perks while helping us continue to bring you more of the Pirates content you love.

Thanks again for all your support, and Let's Go Bucs.

We'll see you next time.