Paul Skenes’ Red Flags Are Impossible to Ignore

So the release of Marcell Ozuna was the big news Wednesday.

So we figured, you know what, let's get that episode out as an emergency offbeat.

The first time we've done that.

Now we have just the regular offbeat.

And after watching Paul Skenes's, I, the word that's coming to my mind is the emergency.

Good morning.

welcome to OffBeat.

Maybe again here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Pirates fell Wednesday 4-2 to the Milwaukee Brewers.

They are two games under .500 for the first time since March.

It's starting to look a little sketchy at the moment.

The deadline, they really addressed the bullpen.

I think that's what they needed to do.

If Marcell Ozuna's roster spot was that in danger, not adding a right-handed hitter, it looks a whole lot worse.

But after the deadline, people were thinking, yeah, okay, they've got some extra pieces here.

Let's see if they make a run.

It's a really good team in Milwaukee.

That team's going to win the division.

I think they might win the pennant also.

I get that.

It's two games.

But it's the time of year where you can't fall too far under .500.

You can't fall too many games back of a wild card race.

And you need to start winning games and stacking wins.

And it should be the starting pitcher who gets the ball rolling there.

The old Jim Leyland, momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher.

And the Pirates had the reigning Cy Young Award winner on the mound.

And he just did not look good all night.

It was just a real bad start.

We started off with that leadoff walk and a wild pitch.

It's like he's just not in it.

He's not in his pitching lane.

He's not in his mechanics.

He didn't look good.

And he was able to muscle through five innings with only three runs allowed.

And even two of those hits came on, like, one of the chunkiest singles you're going to see all year.

But that was a very concerning start for Paul Skates, in my opinion.

Four walks.

And maybe what's more telling for me, 17 pitches, whenever the count was three balls.

The most of his major league career.

He was behind in counts.

And walked some.

Had innings, go longer than they should have been.

That fourth inning, he needed a double play to get out of it.

I wonder how much, leash he had left.

They weren't going to let him throw 40, 50 pitches in a single inning.

Who knows how that outing would have looked if he didn't get that double play there.

Which was far from a gimme.

that 3-6-1.

It was a bad outing.

One where the stuff looked what we've been accustomed to.

this 2026 Paul Skates.

Fastballs, 96, 97.

He's not consistently locating that sweeper.

So, we're seeing him go to the slider instead.

And it's not playing as well.

The splinker is...

It's just not a factor.

And the changeup has really regressed the last two months.

It's just grim.

Looking out there.

Looking out there.

And, yeah, I'm going to point out that this was the first time that Skenes ever threw to N.D. Rodriguez.

I believe ever.

It was the first time this year, if nonetheless.

Henry Davis sits.

N.D. Rodriguez gets the start.

It doesn't go well.

And maybe that played a small factor into it.

But I don't think...

This looked like a bad matchup.

This is what the Brewers want to do offensively.

They want to grind up bats.

They want to get chunk hits.

They want to steal bases.

They want to play small ball.

They want to puttish your starting pitcher and get to that bullpen.

And they did that.

Mission accomplished.

And Skenes just couldn't get in the zone enough to make this a ballgame again.

And this is a team, the Brewers, that Skenes traditionally has had good success against.

One of the best games I've ever seen pitched was him in Milwaukee in 2024.

It was...

There was a lot here where it's like, this could be a get-right start for Skenes, even if this is a really good Brewers club.

Because it's like, okay, he's supposed to be a power pitcher.

Just power through it.

Throw strikes.

I don't know if anyone saw the Foolish Baseball video.

Go watch that about the Brewers.

They don't traditionally do real well against, real power pitchers.

And he just couldn't attack like one.

17 pitches with three balls is concerning.

That's 17 out of 93.

That's borderline one in five pitches he threw had a three-ball count.

That's not counting all the balls that he threw to get to the three-ball count.

Like, it was just a really bad outing.

And it's one of those outings that I'm looking out there.

And I get this.

The box score maybe doesn't reflect what I was seeing.

And yeah, I'm basing this still off of 2024, 2025, Paul Skenes.

But at this moment, I don't see any reason, really, to believe that there's going to be a 2024, 2025 renaissance in season.

Now, that's saying right now, I could feel differently about that at a couple weeks or a couple starts or whatever.

But like right now, I just think this is who Paul Skenes is right now.

Someone who, for a very brief time, on Wednesday, his ERA was over four.

His season ERA was over four.

Over his last 15 starts.

15.

Half a season.

I need to stress that.

15 starts.

Half a season for most people.

He has a 520 ERA.

And in that time, maybe just as concerning, 79 and two-thirds innings pitched.

There is a lot here that's just red flags.

And I look at the mechanics.

I look at the delivery.

He doesn't look like he's using his pelvis, his midsection.

He's not generating that force like we saw last year, in the year before.

I saw a tweet going up to the game whenever it was announced that Endy was going to catch him.

And one of the tweets was like, Paul Skenes throwing to Endy.

And it was the 102-mile-per-hour fastball he threw against the Rays as a rookie to get the strikeout and end his night after seven innings.

And it was just one of those times when you look at that, and it's like, that's not the guy we've seen this year.

And it's not just because he's not throwing 102.

That pitch was dotted.

It was right at the top of the zone.

He attacked.

And I have not seen that.

We have not seen that.

Where is he supposed to do damage right now?

As a rookie, it was really up at the top of the zone.

That's where he is going to beat you.

It's there or it's going to be the splicker dropping.

And then last year, we saw the change-up emerge and how that was hitting, that low hand side, just off the plate.

Devastating, ugly stuff.

This year, he just isn't locating the breaking pitches where he wants, it seems like.

The fastball doesn't have the same zip.

The off-speed pitches just don't look good.

Like, it's weird to see Paul Skenes's throw two splinkers in a game.

Just two splinkers, just five change-ups.

He was going in power, fastball, foreseam, sinker, slider, sweeper, attack with the bread-and-butter pitches, and the Brewers laid off it.

They laid off him.

And whenever they did swing, they were pesky.

This isn't a team that's going to hit, five home runs in a game, but they'll beat you the small ball way.

And whenever we've seen Skenes in the past, whenever he did get beat or whenever, I remember talking to Jason Bay last year, the only other part to win Rookie of the Year.

He said, yeah, the way you beat him is you get a home run.

you accidentally run into one and hope that a couple men are on base.

And it's like, that's just not the way that it's been done this year.

It's been longer innings.

It's been men on base coming in to score.

It's a guy who just isn't pitching like a Cy Young.

And honestly, by big thought, the last week or so has been that 24-25 offseason, that winter of 2024 going into 2025, looks even more inexcusable right now.

Because you don't know how long a pitcher like Paul Skenes is going to be one of the best in baseball.

He has not been this year.

520 ERA over his last 15 starts.

That's a number five starter.

That's an inning eater that you just stick at the end of your rotation.

That's where he is right now.

That's the production the Pirates have gotten from him for the vast majority of this season.

And last year, just that ineffective offseason, only adding Spencer Horwitz, really.

And effectively wasting a year of Paul Skenes' prime whenever you don't know how long his prime is.

Maybe he bounces back this year and he has a really good stride and, he just finds it and he is able to run through the bag and he has a good finish.

Maybe this is just a bad year and 2027, he looks like, 2025 Paul Skenes again.

But right now, like, this is concerning.

I don't see the path to him being a number one down the stretch right now.

Not with this fastball velo.

Not with this inconsistent breaking balls.

Not with being able to throw the off-speed pitches when he wants to.

Not whenever he's able to.

Whenever he's throwing this many balls, there are just so many red flags.

One on top of the other.

And we're at the point now where it's like he doesn't even have these immaculate peripherals like he did early in the year.

This is long past concerning.

This is the guy who was supposed to set the pace this year.

And right now, this is a team that just fell to two games under .500 for the first time since March.

This offense, it was another bad outing against a left-handed starter.

We get it.

Only two runs scored.

It's tough to win that game as is.

I totally get that.

But still, at the end of the day, who is driving this team?

It's supposed to be him.

And he's not.

And we're at a point that you wonder if this offense plays well down the stretch.

they finish as one of the top offenses in the game.

And this bullpen's been revamped.

It's like, okay, what's keeping this team under .500 right now?

I look at the rotation.

Yeah, the bullpen's a big reason why they're under .500 for the year.

I get that.

But just these last two months, the rotation is a concern.

Because you don't know how many innings you're going to get at Jones and Ashcraft and Chandler.

And Skenes is pitching to an ERA over five over the last half of the season.

There are genuine concerns here.

And maybe he rights the ship, but I look at the mechanics.

I look at how he's striding, how he's using his midsection.

It's not the same as what we saw in 2024.

There are issues here.

And if Paul Skenes doesn't right the ship, if he doesn't get back on track to someone who resembles that Cy Young form, I don't know what the path to the playoffs is then.

They still need starting pitching.

And he's supposed to be the guy leading this staff.

Momentum is tomorrow's starting pitcher.

And Pirates did not have any momentum on Wednesday.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

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Thank you so much for listening.

Go check out the Marcell Ozuna episode also if you haven't already.

And we'll talk again tomorrow.

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