Pirates Midseason Report Card: Who’s Passing and Who’s Failing?

What's going on, everybody?

This is the North Shore Nine Podcast presented by FanDuel.

You're watching NS9 Live.

I'm Jim.

With me tonight is Tyler.

How are you doing?

I might be battling some internet issues here tonight.

We just had a tornado warning roll right through a little bit of hail, but we're still here.

We're still here, both of us.

There you go.

The two of us, we're here.

No DiNardo today.

Like Giga Monster says here, DiNardo's had the DiNardi curse, Tyler, which to be fair, DiNardo did not play Bucko Mike's voicemail last week.

That contributed to the Pirates dropping two or three to the Rockies.

But nice little bounce back series.

We're at the midway point.

So we got a lot to talk about today.

Nice bounce back series against the Mariners.

They take two out of three.

We're 41 and 40 at the halfway point.

Yeah, I feel like a couple times throughout this year, or at least not even this year, just the last two weeks, I feel like I've said it's about to get bad.

And to their credit, they've bounced back and been able to tread water here.

Getting yourself a game over 500 at the midway point.

they're still in it.

They're definitely still in it.

Again, 41 and 40.

They are, I think it's nine and a half back in the division.

So the division's pretty far out of reach.

The Brewers just running away with this thing.

The Brewers are 20 games over 500 right now.

Just stupid stuff.

But when it comes to the wild card, the Pirates are, they're right in the mix of it.

They're right in the thick of it, two and a half games behind the Cubs right now for that final wild card spot.

So, yeah, there seems to be, the Phillies, Cardinals, Cubs, Padres, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Pirates, Nationals.

Those are the teams that are still hovering right there in the mix about midway through.

You got the Reds who are a little bit farther back, the Mets, Giants, Rockies rounding out the rest of the NL.

But we're halfway through the year.

They're 41 and 40.

They're on pace to win 82 games, which at least if they can continue this pace until the deadline, it at least puts them in a position where they can buy, they can add a few things.

And if you add the right things, maybe that propels you to the postseason.

They're certainly still in the mix.

For sure.

I guess that's all you can ask for at this point is still being in the mix, especially with the injuries they've dealt with.

If you lose Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz, that's going to hurt anybody, especially this ball club.

So, all things considered, it hasn't been the prettiest of 81 games, but.

I don't know if it's that much different than where we expected them to be.

I think we figured they were around the 500 team if plus or minus maybe four or five games.

So, yeah, they're probably right where we expect them to be.

Yeah, they're not too far off.

And I think what's frustrating and we'll get to it this episode is, you get the sense that they could they could be in a much better position if some things if some things, just trickled the right way here and there.

So we've got a we've got a really big show today.

Want to talk about a lot of things again because it's the midway point.

We want to address a few things.

We want to we want to hand out some midseason grades.

So we're going to do that first.

We're going to go through the different position groups.

We're going to go through the coaching staff.

We're going to go through the front office.

We're going to do all that.

And we're going to hand out some midseason grades to those guys.

After that, we're going to be joined by Alex Stumpf at around 20 after or so, as long as we get through this first segment in the time that we have allotted for it.

And we're going to dive into because one thing that it was made apparent and if you've been watching games all year, you know and you see it.

But this team just they suck at ABS challenges like God, are they awful.

So we're going to dive a little bit more into that.

Like, how bad do they suck at it?

And we're bringing Alex in because he's around the team.

He's in the clubhouse.

So maybe offer a little bit of insight in terms of like, what does this team even have a strategy when it comes to ABS?

What does it look like?

What are players saying?

What are coaches saying?

So we're bringing Alex in to talk a little bit about that.

Then we're going to revisit, before the season started, we did predictions.

Right.

And so we're going to look and see who's on pace right now, whose predictions look bad, whose predictions look good.

So we're going to we're going to take a look at those.

And then also there was some CBA news that came out today where Major League Baseball and the Players Association met Major League Baseball, released a few more things that they're proposing in the next CBA, MLBPA.

They came back with remarks on it.

So we're going to we're going to talk about that, too.

So we've got a jam packed episode for you.

So let's just dive right in, Tyler.

Let's do it.

All right.

So we are at the midway point.

We're going to go through each position group.

Oh, yeah.

And I forgot.

Yeah.

USA place tonight.

10 o'clock.

So once we're done here, yeah, we got we got World Cup.

It's a it's a meaningless game.

The men's national team of Zara has already clinched first place and the one seed in their in their group, whatever you want to call it.

But yeah, that's it.

That's a 10 o'clock.

So let's jump in here.

And if you're watching along to this and we're doing our grades, like throw your grades in the chat.

We'll share them on the screen here.

I really want to get a sense of, what you guys think about, how successful these players are doing, how successful the coaching staff is doing.

So as we go from group to group, feel free to chime in.

But.

Let's start with the let's start with the catching group, Tyler, you want to start with catchers?

Yeah, that'll work.

OK.

You can go first.

I can go ahead and get my grade first on this one.

OK, yeah, let's do it.

So the catching group, I don't know if we thought it was going to be a strength of this team at all.

And.

To this point, it has not been.

I think Endy Rodríguez is saved them a little bit.

We did see Henry Davis have a really nice day today.

But with all that being said, makes Joey Barton there as well, who has been traded.

I'm giving them a D.

OK.

I think they've been terrible.

Like, I don't have many positive things to say.

And the only thing keeping them from being an F to me is Endy Rodríguez coming up and playing pretty good baseball.

They're a D to me.

OK.

All right.

I see the logic there.

I think for me, I would put them at.

I would put them at an F or a D.

But Andy saved.

Andy saved the day here.

Just some quick numbers.

They are 16th right now in Major League Baseball in war.

The catcher group.

They're 12th in Major League Baseball and weighted runs created plus at 92.

So, like, they're as a unit, they've been slightly below average offensively.

And again, like, this is mostly saved by what Endy Rodríguez has done in the last, seven-ish weeks or so.

So, my grade, had it not been for Andy, this would be bad.

Like, this position group is terrible.

Henry Davis has made no progression whatsoever.

He had a good game today.

But, like, overall, Henry's been bad.

Bart was bad.

But Andy saves the group.

And I'm going to go with a C here.

I think Andy has done enough to propel them into, like, they're an average catching group right now for the year.

And I think they've got the potential where if Andy can continue this, like, they could get even better.

So, I'm going with a C just to go through the chat here.

Nate, C-.

Zach, C-.

We've got Progies in that.

C.

Yenzer, D+.

Cody, C.

Yeah, that's what we're showing here.

I just think C is so much high.

Buckle Mike with a D-.

I think that's a little, I think that might be a little harsh.

Buckle Commiss here with a D+.

So, I think we're all around that same, like, C to D range.

There's another one, C+.

But they've been underwhelming.

That's for sure.

But, like, they have been god-awful.

And it's just because of Andy.

Yeah, they're in negative 0.1 war without Andy with Joey Barton, Henry Davis.

Yeah.

And he's played 28 games this year.

That's not even half of the game.

So, going forward, I have some higher hopes for them, I think, throughout the rest of the year because of Andy and what he's done.

But just based on the midway point and what they've done, I think they're a below-average group.

Yeah.

numbers say they're average, right?

They're 12th offensively, 16th and more.

That's about as average as you can get.

So, I'm willing to give them the C.

Fair enough.

All right.

Infielders.

Infielders.

This is, I think it's a tale of two halves here.

If you look at the right side of the infield, they've been just incredible.

First base positions at a 123 weight runs created plus.

Second base is at 124.

They have the third highest weight runs created plus among second basemen in the league.

Brandon Lowe's been awesome.

Spencer Horwitz has been awesome.

Third base, even with Nick Gonzales there, like, the 12th best offensive third baseman so far.

This year, shortstop 21st.

I think a lot of that just has to do with Jared Triolo getting a lot of playing time there.

Konnor Griffin's been good.

Gonzalez has been fine.

I'm going with a B here.

I think I would, I think I'd go B plus if it hadn't been for this Konnor Griffin injury that he's missed three and a half weeks.

I think someone's agreeing with me in the comments here.

Like that has forced them to play Jared Triolo a whole lot more than I'm comfortable with.

And Triolo has been awful.

He's been awful.

So I'm going with a B as a group carried by Brandon Lowe and Horwitz with that left side average, when it's full strength, but when it's not full strength, it's subpar.

I'm completely with you.

I'm giving them a B and really the only thing keeping them from an A is the fact that Jared Triolo has had to play so much and have to play so much at shortstop where there's just not nearly as much defensive value, not to mention as bad as just, he's swinging a

pool noodle.

It's bad.

so yeah, Jared Triolo keeps them out of that a territory.

I also think Nick Gonzales's defense throws a wet towel on some things, but he's still been good enough that if he's your worst infielder and he should be with Konnor Griffin back, that's a pretty good group right there.

Brandon Lowe obviously just, Spencer Horwitz just really strong first half of the season.

Yeah, I've been, I've been, you can't ask for more out of, Brandon Lowe or Horwitz really.

but like third base specifically though, like last year, Pirates third baseman, Tyler had a 57 weighted runs created plus was worst in baseball and it wasn't even close.

this year it's 97, like it's based like they've got league average hitters that they're trotting out at third base and they're 12th in baseball and hitting over there.

It's been a big improvement.

And then like I said, the injection of Brandon Lowe in this lineup has been huge.

just to get to a few of the comments here, we've got, we've got a B, from Zach.

We've got a B plus from, your captain, buckle Mike with a B buckle.

Mike giving out B new York Yenzer B, but Triolo gets an F, Nate B minus progies, B minus.

Oh, Nate's changing out, going back to the B minus there.

Nick with a C, I think, buckle commission a minus a lot of, a lot of that has to do with wow.

So I think, yeah, most hovering in that B territory, but like I said, you can make an argument for going a little bit higher.

It's been a good group.

they could still have Ke'Bryan Hayes in this 10 way to runs, create a plus plan third base.

So yeah, good God.

That would, that would be terrible.

all right.

Outfield let's go there.

This is a, we'll start with you here, but go ahead.

This is my most impressive group.

I'm with you.

it's the, probably the strength here.

I'm giving them an a minus.

And the only reason they're getting a minus is just because the corner outfield spots are not terrific defensively.

That just keeps them out of that a to a plus territory at the plate.

They've been unreal.

Oneil Cruz, we know what he is defensively.

Bryan Reynolds, we know what he is defensively.

O'Hearn's been a pleasant surprise out there and right, but he's still not a plus defender by any stretch.

Mangum's held his own a decent bit, some ups and downs there, but I'm giving him an a minus.

There's still some room to grow.

I think though, they're definitely the strength of this team right now.

And I didn't think I'd ever say that.

Yeah.

I'm even going higher.

you look at, you look at the outfield numbers specifically.

They're third in baseball and hitting one 21 weighted runs created plus as a group like the outfield one 21 weight runs created plus they are the sixth highest war in major league

baseball at 4.4 F four, just an outfield group.

And this is just as outfielder.

So like when Reynolds is DH thing, he's not even counting towards these numbers.

Like this is a really solid group right now.

There are not many outfielders producing like this in major league baseball.

I'm giving them just a straight up.

Hey, Tyler, like they've been great.

Oneil Cruz is having a great year.

Jake Mangum when called upon here, this lot, these last few weeks, like Jake Mangum's hidden 400 in the last month.

Like he's really stepped it up.

He does some dumb things every now and then, but he's holding his own.

Oh, Hearn's been solid.

Bryan Reynolds having the year of his career of his life.

Right.

yeah, I'm giving these guys an a in the outfield.

They are in my opinion, it's, they've been the most productive group that we're going to go through here.

So, I think that's fair.

Yeah.

Some comments here.

We got an a minus, we've got a B got a B plus borderline a minus B plus B plus.

We got an a plus, would be an a, if crew stayed healthy, a minus a minus from, Mike a and around the good grades.

Yeah.

it's a really, again, they're the, they're the third best offensive outfielder outfield in baseball.

you look at the other two, it's Cubs, Yankees, pirates.

That's top three.

Just how we drew it up.

Yeah.

All right.

Let's shift over to pitching here for a bit.

we're going to, we're going to break it between starting rotation and bullpen.

I think I have an idea of how this is going to go, but, actually, no, hold on before we go to pitching designated hitter, Tyler.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Forgot about the pirates signed a designated hitter over the off season for $12 million who can't even crack the lineup.

When Spencer Horwitz, Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz are all on the IL, as a position, the pirates designated hitter spot has an 84 weighted runs created.

Plus that's good for 22nd and baseball.

I'm going with an F here because they dedicated a lot of resources to this spot.

I'm grading it on a curve a little bit because it needed to be, it needs to be a lot higher than this.

It's an F for me, Tyler.

I've been going back and forth here between like a D minus and an F and I, you know what?

I'm going to give them an F plus.

They're not quite a full on F and that's just because of days that Marcell Ozuna is not in the lineup.

Yeah.

They're not terrible.

That's true.

Yeah.

You're right.

I'm with you though.

Like you have to grade this on a curve.

They committed $12 million of payroll to the DH position and they've gotten absolutely nothing out of it.

It probably should be enough, but just because those days that Marcell Ozuna is not in the lineup, which is more often than not anymore, I'll give them a little bit of a plus.

Okay.

All right.

F plus.

I don't know if that's a thing, but we'll count it.

We'll go ahead.

We'll go with it.

Let's see here.

Just some comments.

Nate, he's going with an F.

He said he would go with a G minus if he could.

Ginzer is just a minus, just not even a letter.

Zach D minus D minus F D F plus is fair.

You got a nice little F plus there.

There's fair.

So now, and then here's another D.

Yeah.

I don't know, man.

The D's that seems too high for me.

That seems too high.

all right.

Pitching, starting pitchers, Tyler, what do you got?

I'm going to also grade them on a curve.

I agree.

I'm going to give them a little curve too.

And I'm grading them on a curve in the way that I expected more out of them.

There's still a top 10 staff in baseball.

So I'll give them a B minus here.

Okay.

That might be a little high on them, but Braxton Ashcraft's been so good.

Paul Skenes is still a sub three ERA.

Mitch Keller, not having the season we expected is really hurting this grade.

I think, and Jared Jones, maybe not be coming back as strong as we had hoped, but he's still been fine.

There's just, it's still early in the process.

I'll give them a B minus any normal, like if this was last year, I might've given them like a B plus with the same results here.

Okay.

Just cause it wasn't expected this year.

I expected an a, it hasn't been an a.

Yeah.

I'm with you.

Like they haven't been as good as they've needed to be.

Right.

but you look at the overall numbers, they're ninth in staff ERA, like the pitching, the starting rotation is a 3.93 earned run average.

That's ninth best in baseball.

They're fifth and war there, but like, if you look at the negatives, they're 16th in innings pitched.

And when we get to this next group, maybe a few more innings here and there could contribute to a few more wins.

and at the end of the day, like wins are what matters, right?

I know we're talking about pitcher, like starting pitcher wins here, but pirates starting pitchers are 19th in baseball and wins Tyler.

And like, I know you can look at all the other stuff, but this part, this starting pitching staff was supposed to win you baseball games and they're not really doing it right now.

So I'm going to be a little harsher than you.

You went B minus.

I'm going with a C plus here.

Like they've been, they've been good.

They've been fine, but they have not been good enough.

They've not been good enough.

So I'm going C plus, just going through a few comments here.

We got a B minus, we got a C plus, we got a B minus C B plus, B minus B, a disappointing B.

Nate's breaking his up.

You can't do that.

Nate, there's a whole group.

and then we got a C plus.

So yeah, I think we're all in that same range.

Like we're a little underwhelmed.

Yeah.

Disappointing, but still not bad.

It's passable.

Right.

They're not losing games because of these guys, but they're also not winning because of them either.

C's get degrees.

I got a diploma to show it.

C's gets you one game over 500.

I guess.

Yeah.

Which brings us to the bullpen.

Tyler.

4.37 earned run average 19th in baseball.

19th and when probability added their 18th and war, but these are the two numbers I'm going to throw out here for you.

They've got 15 blown saves.

That's tied for fifth in baseball.

and then this is the kicker, 66.8% left on base percentage by the bullpen.

They are letting inherited runners score.

They aren't getting out of jams.

That number is third worst in major league baseball.

This bullpen, when they allow base runners, they come in the score at the third highest rate in major league baseball.

And when you're playing in close games like they are and you're relying on them like they are, it's leading to losses.

It's leading.

how many more games would we, this team have in the bag?

If this bullpen was just average across the board, it'd be probably at least five.

And then you're talking about you're a while you're squarely in the wild card right now.

I'm going F like this is an F like they're not the worst bullpen I've ever seen, but they fail to get the job done when they need to.

And that's what matters.

when you don't turn the work in school and the teacher just gives you a zero.

That's it.

Yeah.

That's his bullpen.

It's an F with a zero grade.

You get zero points.

It's been awful.

I'm with you.

They would have probably five more wins if they had a competent bullpen.

And you're probably sitting pretty comfortably second in the NL central with, a little bit of wiggle room there.

Yeah, they've been atrocious.

They've been plain and simple, God awful.

And it's not just that they're not the most talented group because there is some talent here and some guys that you expected some things from, but they're underachieving

as well.

Like they're not talented and they're underachieving.

I don't know how you can do that, but they're doing it.

So two Fs.

I gave them a zero.

They didn't turn their work in.

Incomplete.

Incomplete.

No, they're not getting an incomplete.

That was not finished.

Yeah.

Getting to some of your all's grades.

We got an F minus.

That's the first F minus, I think, of the day.

D plus, D minus, D minus.

D.

F plus.

D minus, D.

Man, we got someone with a C minus.

Doug with an F, as in F off.

Zach with a D minus.

Yeah.

So, you know what?

I'm surprised with the Ds.

I expected more Fs.

It is the worst part of this team.

It's the single biggest, worst part of this team.

That's a group I didn't even have to think about a grade for.

It was an F.

Yeah.

All right.

And then real quick, because we've got somebody waiting on our next segment, but coaching staff.

They're sitting one game above 500.

It's been ups and downs.

Pitching staff has underachieved.

I think hitting-wise, they've overachieved to this point.

So, that evens out a little bit.

I'm just going to give them a flat-out C.

I think they're just an average group right now.

Yeah.

This was tough for me, because I feel like they haven't...

It's hard to really know what effect the coaching staff has on a team anyways.

But the fundamentals still aren't there.

But is that really on the coaching staff?

These are adults.

You learn fundamentals in Little League.

At some point, the players just have to know which base to run to, right?

What are we doing here?

But then also, there are little things, and we're going to get to this.

The ABS is a piece of this, and why I'm dinging this coaching staff a little bit.

Because it seems like whatever strategies they're doing, it's just not working.

And yeah, they're one game over 500, but they should be higher.

I think we all agree that this team, especially with the way this offense is rolling, they should be higher than one game over.

You're going C.

I'm going D+.

These guys haven't failed completely, but I don't think...

I think they've done a good job of making sure that this team is always in it, and they're trying.

But I'm just not seeing the little things being done well.

That's a thing I'd never see this team do.

So I'm going with a D+.

Just some other ones here.

It seems like the Cs are going to take this one.

We got a C.

We got a C.

We got a C.

We got a C+.

We got a D+.

We got a C.

We got a B-, C+.

A, C, and F.

So yeah, I think everyone's pretty much just like, yeah.

They're average.

Yeah, it's just a meh.

Yeah.

All right.

Last one, then we'll get to our next segment here.

Front office.

I'll start.

I thought the front office did a really...

this is basically Ben here, right?

But did a great job of reconstructing this lineup.

I can't say enough good things about this offense.

I was not expecting them to go from 27th to 5th.

I was hoping to go from like 27th to 12th, somewhere in that range.

But they've gone from 27th to like 5th.

The problem is that they completely failed on the Ozuna front.

And that has led to some issues because, whatever they did there, they didn't go out there.

And they went out there and acquired one relief pitcher.

One.

And they were like, we're going to trot out the entire bullpen of guys who have been DFA'd four times each.

Like, that's essentially what their strategy was.

And it has backfired immensely.

So, in my opinion, this season, it's playoffs or bust.

If the Pirates don't make the playoffs this year, the front, like Ben Cherington, the whole, like the Ben Cherington regime should be over.

And right now, if the season ended today, they wouldn't be in the playoffs.

So, I cannot give this front office a good grade right now as things stand.

So, I'm going with a D plus just because I think there's still, like, it's not maybe all on them.

Like, but they did not do a good job of constructing a full team this year that was going to go to the playoffs.

And, yeah, I'm being a little harsh here, but I'm going D plus.

I thought I was going to be harsh here by going with, like, a C minus.

But, like, I can fully agree with you on it being a D plus.

And the reason being that I think you did a good, like you said, a good job of reconstructing the lineup.

But also, all the issues that are here right now are issues that you could see right in front of your face coming into this year.

Like, the bullpen was a problem.

Also, I think you have to tie in that you're seeing the lack of depth pop up here.

And, like, that's because Ben Cherington didn't acquire any useful hitters over his last, I don't even know how many years we're into this, bad boy.

But way too long.

Yeah.

There's no hitters here.

And when Oneil Cruz goes down, you have to call up a Tyler Callihan who, yes, he's played okay, but, like, you don't have.

Single-handedly run a game.

Yeah, but you're right.

He did, but, like, Jared Trill is playing shortstop every day because you just refuse to sign anybody who can play shortstop.

It was Konnor Griffin or bust.

There was no backup plan for anything.

You came into this year with hopes and prayers that Isaac Mattson would continue to just throw a 92-mile-an-hour fastball past everybody and lock up the seventh and eighth inning, and Dennis Santana would continue to just dope his way through an entire season.

It was a better offseason, wasn't good enough, and they had to spend so much money on the lineup that there wasn't really much wiggle room anywhere else because there's no depth here

because he just failed for so long.

Yeah.

So it probably should be a D+.

So what are you going with?

I'll give him a C-, I'll give him a C-, just because Brandon Lowe exists and they signed Konnor Griffin.

But also, I should knock him for this whole Carmen Mlodzinski thing, but that's a song for another time.

This one has the most volatility, it looks like, in the comments, because we got a B+, we got a C-, we got an A, we got a C, we got a B-, we got a C-, we got a C-, A-, A-, B-,

and then Doug gives us an A+, Tyler.

That's the only thing I care about.

Yeah, there you go.

All right.

Well, I think, so far, it's a mixed bag.

There's some that have been really good, there's some that have been bad, there's some that have been average.

It's exactly what you would expect from a 41-40 team.

I think there's room for improvements on some of these.

I also think there's maybe some regression candidates that are thrown in the mix here, too, so we'll see.

But, yeah, I think to add, before we move to our next segment.

It all adds up to a 500 team.

All adds up to a 500 team.

Yep, it really does.

All right.

We're going to hear from Cody real quick, and then we're going to bring Alex on, and we're going to talk some ABS.

And why are the Pirates so freaking terrible at it?

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All right.

Let's bring on from the BookRollBucks sub stack and the daily morning podcast right here on North Shore Nine, Offbeat.

Alex Stumpf, how you doing?

Sorry for making you wait a little bit there.

Oh, good.

I do have an issue with everyone.

Not everyone.

There are too many F pluses in those grades.

Too many F pluses.

Fully commit to an F.

Nobody cares if you've got a 59%.

It's still an F.

I'm with you.

I didn't give out any.

Yeah.

That was Tyler.

I saw at least two F pluses.

Yeah.

The comments, I think, had a couple F pluses.

Yeah.

Yeah.

So Alex, and again, if you don't already, make sure you're subscribed to Alex's sub stack.

It's BookRollBucks.

And then make sure you're checking out his daily podcast too.

But I want to talk about the ABS system here, Alex, because it's new.

It's the first time that it's been in the majors.

It's like, it is something, it is a skill, right?

It's a skill.

It's something that teams are using to their advantage and or disadvantage.

And the Pirates are a team who should be looking and trying to cut corners and, win an extra at bat, win an extra run here and there.

And this is a new thing that they're just terrible at.

they're awful at it.

And so before we dive in here, I just want to share the numbers, right?

Like let's look at what it actually looks like with the Pirates ABS challenge system compared to everybody else.

First off, when it comes to hitting, when the Pirates are batting, they have a 38% win rate on challenges.

they are 32 for 84.

That's the second worst win percentage in baseball only behind the Atlanta Braves.

if you look at how many times they've challenged, they've challenged right up there.

It's in like the top 10.

But if you look at how many they've won, it's one of the worst.

It's a seventh worst in baseball.

And that all contributes to just an awful winning percentage.

All right.

Well, but when they're pitching and you've got Henry Davis back there, Joey Barr, Endy Rodríguez, well, the Pirates have won the least amount of challenges out of any defensive team.

They are 29 for 63.

they have a win percentage of 46%.

That is the worst in baseball.

So they are the second worst team in baseball at challenging when they are hitting and they are the worst team in baseball.

When they are challenging as, fielders.

And what that ends up coming up to is they have, the least amount of overturns of any team in the major leagues.

they've got less than half of what Derek Shelton's twins have.

Alex, 61 total overturns for the year.

And a cool thing you can do here is, the net runs that this has contributed to, negative 4.2 net runs, in,

in, I don't know how you get a 0.2 run, but this is how they're doing it.

But overall, it's been bad.

It's been pretty bad, Alex.

And I wanted to bring you on here because, you're around this team.

you're in the clubhouse, you're talking to coaches, you're talking to players.

And I don't know, like what is this team strategy when it comes to ABS?

I don't know if there's like a mission statement that I could give there, but this is something that they have been cognizant about.

They had drills that, we weren't privy to see, the previous home staying to try to address it, to get a better feel for the strike zone or when to challenge, I guess would be the better way of saying it,

but it, is striking for me because, okay, Oneil Cruz.

He's someone who has chased a lot in his career.

He's also really tall and umpires have always had a different viewpoint of what the bottom of his strike zone would be.

I would get why I get why he doesn't grade well in this.

Like it's just a bad recipe.

But then you have someone like Spencer Horwitz who always has a walk rate over 10%.

Was in the 80th percentile in chases last year.

So someone who does know the strike zone and he somehow has a worse ranking in these challenges than Oneil Cruz.

Like just to reiterate that, Spencer Horwitz is three for 11.

And it's like negative 6.2 expected.

So not only whenever he challenges, he's not doing it well.

Like what they deem reasonable challenges.

He's not taking that shot.

And that strikes me.

Endy Rodríguez.

We're seeing him in the walk rates way up there this year.

He's always been a good pitch framer.

You think, okay, he knows the strike zone and he's just not getting those overturns behind the plate.

It's something that I don't know if it's like a sound the alarm type of issue right now, but it's enough that,

yeah, that extra work they were doing that last homestand.

I think that was a good thing to address because if every other team is taking better advantage of this than you, regardless of what it is in the game, you have to look at how do you close that gap?

Yeah.

just to, just to throw out a few here, you use Oneil Cruz is one for six, one for six.

Ryan O'Hearn seven for 14, right at 50%.

Bryan Reynolds is eight for 15.

A little bit.

Bryan Reynolds is pretty much like the best on the team right now.

We already talked about Horwitz.

Ozuna seven for 15.

I figured he would be worse.

Nick Gonzales two for seven.

and yeah, catching wise, Henry Davis is certainly the best, but like, he's like right at 50%.

He's 17 for 15, 17 for 35.

Endy Rodríguez as a catcher five for 15.

Yeah.

Like he's challenged.

That's terrible.

Like you're sitting right there behind the plate.

Andy, he's drawn a ton of walks as a hitter.

He's always been a good pitch framer and he doesn't know the strike zone.

Like what's really going on here.

So it's puzzling.

And one of the things that I don't know if that's showing as well, pitching.

The parts have had only seven balls turn into strike three.

And that's the fewest in baseball.

They've spared themselves only three walks, which is the fifth fewest in baseball.

So not only not getting the calls whenever they do get the calls, at least on the catching side, they haven't been the most impactful.

They're not finishing at bats.

They're not giving you another chance, by preventing a walk.

I think that's the bigger issue with it.

And I get flipping a count minute bat is huge.

Like if it's a one count, if it goes to two, one, the league is betting three 37 with a five 67 slug.

If it goes to one, two, it's a one 54 batting average and a two 33 slug.

So that's a huge call right there.

That only, I think further cements the point of you can't be this far behind the rest of the league in really anything that's semi-controllable.

This seems like a part of the game that is controllable and they're just not doing well at it.

Do you think we're going to get to a point where, and I don't even, I'm just spitballing here.

Like, are we going to more challenge, I guess, in and out because it seems to be, at least like as a hitter, I feel like you can judge that a little bit better rather than up and down.

Like, is there going to be maybe an emphasis on what you're looking to challenge, whether it's going to be in and out or up in it?

Like, maybe we just don't worry about up and down.

We just go, if it's off the plate, that's what we're looking to challenge.

I don't know.

Maybe.

I don't think you can, it's not like hitting where you're going up.

There's like, I'm looking for something high and tight right now.

I'm just looking for something to drive.

You have to know the whole strike zone.

maybe that's a baby step to help get them more back on track.

But as it stands right now, like this is an issue.

This is an issue where you had that chart up there.

The Rockies have what?

9.8 runs.

Yeah.

Two challenges.

That's a whole win.

The Rockies are the best team.

Yeah.

10 wins of run differential is a win.

10 runs scored.

That's a whole extra game.

The Colorado Rockies have won and everyone in Denver is celebrating that they're not going to lose 120 games again this year because of it.

But this is like a real impact.

This is something that could have right now.

The Pirates are on pace to lose an extra game than they otherwise would have.

It's not a good pace to be on.

No.

And let's say I guess what I'm curious on is like going into the season.

Was there was there any like that year that you'd know of like was there any strategy to this?

Was it just like, hey, if you think the umpire is wrong, just go for it.

Or was there more where they use your moments?

I think you have to, you have to be cognizant of the moment.

Like you, if you burn one early in the second inning and then the next one is you're 99% sure that it's gone.

It's like, well, you can't burn twice in the same at bat.

You have to be mindful of that.

I think it was it Baltimore early in the year that they challenged a ball in the ninth inning that they shouldn't have.

And then they couldn't challenge what would have been like a strike three to New York.

And New York gets the walk-off hit.

Like you have to be mindful of how many challenges you have, especially in the first nine innings.

But at the same time, I see, I think it was Esmerlyn Valdez yesterday in a late inning at bat.

There's a ball that from my vantage point, it looked like it was a ball, but they called it a strike and he didn't challenge.

And it's like, it's the seventh, sixth, seventh inning.

You have the two challenges still.

You can take that shot.

I want the rookie to take that shot right there.

And he didn't.

Obviously, it didn't make a difference in the game.

But it was enough to be, I think they could do a better job communicating of, it's okay to take risks.

It's okay to make these shots.

Take an aggressive swing.

Unless you're Marcelo Zuno.

I cannot believe he is not the worst on it.

I don't know if I've witnessed with my own two eyes him get a call overturned.

I don't question the validity of it.

I'm sure there were some.

I guess I just wasn't watching baseball that night.

Yeah, I guess the good piece of this I'm taking from is it does seem like it's something that they're obviously aware of.

They are doing things to try to make it better.

But yeah, I'm curious on just how much of this is like a confidence thing, too.

Once you blow so many, it's like, do you want to just keep going until you're right?

Because if you're Endy right now, do you have any idea what a strike is?

Because it's just not working out very well.

And you would think with somebody like Endy, he's had a lot of experience with this.

It's been in the minors for years, and you would think that the younger guys would be almost a lot more comfortable with it.

And I'm not really noticing anyone excelling with it outside Bryan Reynolds.

I feel like Bryan Reynolds has used it pretty well.

And I feel like there was like a stretch of games there where like he was turning strikeouts into walks and, strike twos into ball fours.

And like he was using it.

Bryan Reynolds has been the most impressive, I guess, when it comes to using the ABS just from my eyes.

But yeah, it's something they need to get better at because.

Again, like these are real outcomes that come out of this.

You said the numbers there, like the difference between a one, two count and a two, one count is huge.

It's a, it's a big difference.

And they're just not taking advantage of those little things that other teams are taking advantage of.

Got to add on real quick.

I think Ryan O'Hearn also has done a real good job with these challenges.

And I think he's been aggressive with it.

Like I, off the top of my head, I think he has the most challenges on the team, which I don't think a lot of hitters or veteran hitters have.

Like, I think Brandon Lowe has only done one this whole year.

So I don't fault him for just being like, I'm going to play ball like I always play ball.

You guys deal with that.

At the end of the day, losing a challenge, the only risk you, the only detriment is you lose potential opportunity to challenge later in the game.

This is at the end of the day, only a net positive for your team, for what you can control.

Like if the other team keeps challenging and keeps getting overturns, well, that's out of your control right there.

But it's still runs, it's still strikeouts, it's still walks, it's still getting a 2-1 count instead of a 1-2.

In 2013, like whenever they went all in on pitch framing with Russell Martin, it was to control counts to get those extra strikes.

And here we are 13 years later, and this is another way to get extra strikes or prevent, bad strikes and give you a better chance to hit.

And they just haven't seemed to be on the upswing as much this time around.

Yeah.

Well.

You got anything else to add to this one, Tyler?

No, I'm just staring at this list now and in annoyance.

Ryan O'Hearn's 7 for 14, by the way.

Yeah, he is.

And all I keep thinking about is the amount of times I've seen Spencer Horwitz challenge a pitch that is just completely in the zone.

I do wonder, like...

Horwitz is bad.

He's been bad.

Yeah.

I do.

Which makes no sense.

He knows the strike zone.

He doesn't...

Yeah, it's weird when, like, good hitters, you're bad at it.

It doesn't...

It's hard for me to understand that.

I do wonder, and I can't really figure out how to work well enough.

I'm curious where the Pirates rank in terms of, like, innings that they challenge.

Like, how often they challenge early in a game and how...

Whether that hurts them at all.

And then maybe you're a little bit more hesitant as the game goes on to challenge a pitch that might be a ball or a strike.

I can't figure out how to work Savant in that way, but...

But to your point, it does seem like there are a few times where they'll challenge something in the first inning.

It won't get overturned, and they're down a challenge right away.

Yeah.

And it's also...

It's a situation where it was Marcell Ozuna challenging the first pitch up in a bat in the first inning with, like, nobody on base.

Or in the second inning with nobody on base.

And you're like, oh, God.

Yeah.

And that does...

In the first inning, like, in the second inning, it becomes that ball that you probably would have challenged if you're 90% sure.

Well, you've got to be 99% sure.

So maybe that does factor in, but they...

In terms of, like, raw challenges, like, I think they're 11th.

Okay.

I thought they were a little higher.

But that's still a better...

More than average in terms of, like, number of challenges they've done as hitters.

Yeah.

So it's not like they're...

They're using them.

They're using them.

They're just not successful at it.

Yeah.

It's...

Jake Mangum, too.

It's infuriating.

Oh.

It's just one of those little things.

And I know last year's early season field rallying cry was winning in the margins.

But this is one of those things.

This is literally the margins.

It is the margins.

Yes.

They are not winning in the literal margins of the strike zone, Alex.

All right.

Mid-season grade for offbeat, though.

A-plus.

I'm going to say A-plus.

Thank you.

If you haven't made that part of your warning routine, make sure you do.

If you listen to us, make sure you're listening to Alex.

If you watch us, make sure you watch him.

It's just outstanding stuff every day.

It's 15 minutes.

Easy to consume.

It's always good information.

It's good stuff.

I think the trend bars is going up for it.

Oh, yeah.

Like the rolling 15 game average, 15 podcast average.

Bucko Mike gives you a C-plus because he says it's not long enough.

You know what?

I know a Bucko Mike C-plus is a lot of people's A-minus, so I'll take it.

Yeah.

A C-plus from Bucko Mike is really good.

I don't know if I've ever gotten a C-plus from Bucko Mike.

You know what?

And also, him saying it's not long enough is a good thing.

He wants more Alex.

Nobody wants more Alex.

We all want more Alex.

All right, man.

Again, subscribe to BookRollBucks, sub-stack.

Check out Offbeat every single morning, Monday through Friday.

Appreciate you hopping on with us, Alex.

We're going to go check out our preseason predictions now and see who is smarter than who.

Whom.

Who is smarter than whom?

You're the journalist here.

Is that right?

I'm going to get out of this stream before I leave this.

All right.

We'll catch you later.

We'll see you tomorrow morning.

See you tomorrow.

All right.

All right, Tyler.

How hard was it to say Offbeat instead of our pet name?

Offbeat.

Yeah.

No, good stuff, as always.

I think the interesting part there for me is at least they're well aware that this is a problem.

And hopefully they can figure something out to course correct.

Because the first half of the year, they were awful at ABS challenging.

And they got to do better at it now.

They have to do.

It's one of those little things that this team can do better.

It's like when the Steelers are committing too many penalties and Mike Tomlin brings in the whoopee old refs to clean it up.

That's what the Pirates have to do right now.

that's what they're doing.

They're bringing the Jumbotron out.

Yeah.

I'm curious on how you like practice that too.

Because you would think as hitters, you would just know the zone, but apparently you don't all the time.

I did see at one point, like the Pirates throw harder than anybody really in baseball.

I saw that too.

I saw that too.

But that would be affecting the catchers.

Yeah.

Right.

And Andy's one of the worst at it.

Yeah.

I don't know.

Hopefully it improves.

You know who else is one of the worst?

DiNardo.

So let's, so before the season started, we did some predictions for the year.

And with this being the halfway point, I wanted to just get like a pulse check on how we're doing.

So you've got a list of all of our questions that we went through and we'll go through this pretty quickly.

But I'm curious on how well we're doing with our predictions right now.

So let's, do we want to roll through this just real quick?

Yeah.

We'll roll through this real quick here.

You started our over unders with the Brandon Lowe question that you continue to bring up there, Jim.

Brandon Lowe, 24 and a half home runs.

DiNardo and I both took the under.

I think we're going to be wrong on that one.

I think you're going to be wrong on that one.

Yeah.

He just hit his 19th today.

So yeah, he's a, he's going to roll right past that number.

Yeah.

He's been quite good.

I don't know if we really need to dig too deep into that one.

No, we don't.

We don't like that.

That one is going poorly for both of you.

Yeah.

That's good for me.

Yeah.

That's a failure.

Yeah.

Is what it is.

DiNardo, his question or his first question was the over under of.

And of course he tried to cheat on this entire thing.

He did over under Oneil Cruz, 25 home runs and 25 stolen bases.

Okay.

I feel good about that.

I think I went over.

We both went over on that.

Yeah.

even with the injury, he's at 14 and 21 right now.

So he's pacing to go over that quite nicely.

So I'm going to give us both a point on that one.

Tyler.

Yeah.

I think we're in group.

Now, granted, I think we were probably pretty close on an over under last year on Oneil Cruz.

And then he just stopped hitting for three months.

Yeah.

I think we're going to be okay, though.

We'll be.

Yeah, I do, too.

Yeah.

My first question had to do with the mayor, Jake Mangum.

And I set the number at 115 and a half hits.

Both of you went under on that.

We're looking good.

He's at 50 hits right now.

So he's pacing for he's pacing for 100.

he's getting more playing time now, so we'll see what happens.

We'll see.

But I'm going to go ahead and give DiNardo and I a point for at least being pacing there.

That's that would be 65 more hits.

Yeah.

hey, we could have a couple of four or five games.

Why not?

Come on, man.

We could.

We could.

Yeah.

Jim, you just boned us here.

I know.

I crushed you guys.

Paul Skenes.

You said his over under a VRA at 2.245.

DiNardo and I both went under.

It will take a lot of scoreless innings to get there.

Yeah, he's a 286 right now.

You guys laughed at me when I gave you that number.

Yeah, you laughed.

Completely laugh.

225.

Like, that's an incredible year.

Paul Skenes at a 225 VRA right now.

I think people would probably still be complaining.

But no, I feel I feel pretty good that I'm going to keep you guys off the board for that one.

Yeah, that one.

Like I said, it's going to take a lot of innings without giving up.

Now, let me let me get this out.

I hope you both get a point here and that Skenes just goes on some generational run the second half.

But it is going to have to be an insane run.

He's going to have to get like a 1.4 ERA from this point forward.

1.5.

DiNardo set the number at five and a half here.

And I believe the question was position groups with a 100 weighted runs creative plus or above.

Okay.

I took the over.

You took the under on that.

Yeah.

I don't know.

That's going to be a close one.

Yeah.

You know what?

I can just do it real quick.

So not catcher.

First base.

Yes.

Second base.

Yes.

Shortstop.

No.

Third base.

No.

Right field.

Yes.

Center field.

Yes.

Left field.

Yes.

DH.

No.