The Pirates Can’t Afford to Wait on Brandon Lowe

I've maintained on this podcast and writing for Bookroll Bucks that the two most important things for the Pirates this winter are to, one, retain Brandon Lowe, and two, make moves early in the offseason.

That lockout is coming after December 1, and there's only X amount of time before then, and the Pirates have a really bad track record of signing players once February rolls around.

They need to make moves early, they need to retain Brandon Lowe.

It looks like those two might be in conflict with one another.

Good morning, and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

General Manager Ben Cherington talked to Assembled Media at the GM meetings in Las Vegas on Tuesday.

Those quotes were available everywhere.

I'm going to borrow a quote here from Colin Beasley at the Post-Gazette, where he was asked about, Do the Pirates have flexibility for improvement?

Because last year, they went in knowing they had tens of millions of dollars to spend, something that they don't always have.

They created some flexibility by trading Ben, Norrin, Hayes.

They had some extra flexibility just in general.

Money was coming off the books, and they spent it.

They took some bigger swings.

They signed Ryan O'Hearn, they signed Marcell Ozuna, and the Brandon Lowe trade happened.

All those moves were moves that added eight figures to the payroll.

So this is another year, this is another winner, are they in the same spot?

Ben Cherington said, quote, I don't feel like we're hamstrung or constrained, but it is a different offseason.

He continued, there are different commitments on the books and a different arbitration class, and I think some of that will affect how we approach getting better.

But that part's not changing, that's our priority, end quote.

Now the Pirates have a very obvious commitment on the books and an offer on the books.

They gave Brandon Lowe a qualifying offer.

And like I said earlier this week, I don't think it's a slam dunk, no, he won't take it.

In a normal offseason, yeah, I think he would.

He'd say, hey, I'm still on board for returning.

We can talk other contracts, but if you want me, I'm going to get a multi-year deal.

This is just a bad, could be a bad market in general, and just the vibe I got is the chances of him taking it aren't zero.

Now he has talked to other teams.

There have been reports this week that the Blue Jays are interested.

The Rays have apparently reached out.

I don't know if the Yankees are officially interested, or if it's just speculation.

They have a clear need for second base.

But we don't know how much they're going to spend.

We don't know how those teams are going to operate, what type of offers they're going to give.

Brandon Lowe also was really liked in Pittsburgh.

And that means something.

It doesn't mean zero.

Brandon Lowe has to accept or decline the qualifying offer by November 17th.

So next week, we're going to have our answer.

We're going to do an episode off that, regardless of what that answer is.

But until then, hearts can't, from what it sounds like, maybe they're not, hamstrung, as Cherington put it, but that's a big commitment on the books, potentially.

That's over $23 million offered.

That would be the, what, the fourth largest free agent contracted franchise history?

Just as a qualifying offer?

It would be big.

So, until we get an answer then, or until they get an answer then, like, it's, they might be a little hamstrung, whether or not Cherington wants to say it or not.

Now, they can still talk to teams.

They can still talk to agents.

They can still float different trade ideas, signing ideas, express interest to free agents.

But all those moves, it comes, I'm sure, with that unspoken, we don't know what we can offer you.

Like, we have a shopping list, even though Cherington, again, wouldn't say officially that they have a shopping list.

But there is so many clear areas of need, and he expressed his desire to make the roster better.

Whether it's, an area of strength and proving that more than, just taking an area of perceived weakness and trying to improve that.

But they have question marks.

They need to get better.

And look, if they're waiting to see if Brandon Lowe says yes or no to a $23 million offer, I don't know how much you can commit.

I don't know how deep you can get into those talks.

They will still have time.

They'll still have time to, negotiate whether he says yes or no.

But it'll be two weeks.

And we were looking at, like, a one-month free agency anyway.

And not only that, vibe I got around the league is there are going to probably be a lot of moves in those days coming up to the lockout.

Either players want to just grandfather their contracts in the risk that there will be a cap and floor brought in, teams signing players, grandfathering in.

Hey, we signed them before this went into effect.

You can't really punish us here.

We don't know how that's all going to go.

Brandon Lowe would seemingly be a candidate for that.

He is someone who, in a normal year, would get a three or four, maybe even five-year contract.

He had a really good year.

He is a good player.

He is one of the elite hitters at his position.

And he was a gold glove nominee on top of that.

And he was a great clubhouse guy.

There's not a lot of ways you can knock Brandon Lowe's contributions this year.

He was one of the game's best second basemen, and he was the best player on the 2026 Pirates.

The best performer.

Losing him, it's going to be tough recreating him in the aggregate.

Especially if you have an abbreviated version of an abbreviated offseason to make those moves.

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I don't want to say that the Brandon Lowe contract is qualifying offer or bust, because it's not.

Cherington shared with media that, yes, the qualifying offer decision will give, as he put it, clarity.

But he and the team and Brandon Lowe's agent have still been talking.

I would speculate that Brandon Lowe's best path to returning in 2027 would be just taking the qualifying offer, taking the bird in the hand, and trying offseason next year whenever there's not this cloud of uncertainty.

But he could take a variety of different contracts.

He could take a multi-year deal with an opt-out.

He could take a back-loaded deal.

There are ways that he could return, and it fits within this perceived budget.

But it's not the only need.

Cherington listed left-handed relief as, or just left-handed pitching in general, as an area that they want to look at.

Katie Wu and Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic reported as much.

So it's a good question of how do they improve whenever they don't know how many resources they have.

If those are going to be free agent dollars, if it's going to be you have to make a trade, you have to find someone like Lake Bakar, who is on a pre-arb contract.

There are a lot of questions that are unanswered right now.

It's good that they are having these conversations with Brandon Lowe.

And it's not just hinging on the qualifying offer.

If for no other reason than having these discussions expresses to him and the agent how important Brandon Lowe is to this team.

And he is very important.

This team does not have a winning record in 2026 without Brandon Lowe.

And candidly, any path towards the postseason in 2027 becomes a lot harder without him in the equation.

I'm not saying it can't happen.

I'm saying it's a lot tougher.

And Cherington has maintained any time he has been asked about Brandon Lowe is like, it would be a great outcome if he is on the Pirates in 2027.

And it would be.

He would be the number one free agent signing.

Jared Jones said that after his last start of the year.

It's like, we've got good bones.

Keep Brandon Lowe and I think we have a ball club.

Paraphrasing a little, but that was the gist of what he was saying.

That would mean a lot if they could just retain their top player.

And if they do retain him and they are presented with two weeks of question marks.

Of not knowing if they are getting more revenue sharing.

If, a capital floor is coming up in the not so distant future.

And it's question marks.

Look, you take that.

I think you take that certainty of having a really, of having a great ball player back in your fold.

If he leaves, or if he even just declines, then you're in a spot of like, how earnestly do we put all our eggs in this basket.

As the Schwarber situation last year, there was a general understanding, like, Schwarber was probably going to sign by the winter meetings.

And the Pirates made an earnest effort.

They put it together, a real offer.

But it was, whatever he got turned out, it's like, okay, well, now we still have over half of the offseason to operate.

They don't really have that this year.

They don't have that time.

And, yeah, you can make moves after the deadline, but you want to make your impact moves beforehand.

Look at the acquisitions they made before the midpoint of the offseason last year.

Brandon Lowe, Soto, O'Hearn, and the ones they made after the midpoint.

Yurkiti, Ozuna.

This is a team that needs to take a step forward in 2027.

They need to improve the roster.

Brandon Lowe would be the best way, in my opinion, to improve the roster.

But they don't have a lot of time, and they're going to need a decision by next week.

And if it's a no, they have to decide how earnestly they want to fully pursue Brandon Lowe if it means that they can't do other moves.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

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