The Pirates’ Pitching Factory Has a Problem

The last two winners, the Pirates made their big move by trading away a starting pitcher.

In the 2024-2025 offseason, they sent Luis Ortiz to Cleveland and they acquired Spencer Horwitz.

They signed a couple free agents to eight-figure contracts in 2025-2026, but I think we could all pretty uncontroversially say that Mike Burroughs for Brandon Lowe, Mason Montgomery, and Jake Mangum was the move of the winner.

The Pirates are, once again, staring down a pretty important offseason.

And in years past, they have had the starting pitching depth to trade a guy away and get someone back who was significant.

Are they in position to do that again this winter?

Good morning, and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

I'm looking at the five, six guys who are penciled in for those top five, six spots right now.

And Paul Skenes is not going to be traded this winter, obviously, no matter what.

The asking price for Braxton Ashcraft and Jared Jones would be so astronomically high that even though, yeah, they have the injury history, they're not trading him.

Either one.

Put Bubba Chandler in that tier as well.

I know his rookie year had some highs and lows, but I think he set a good foundation for himself.

Yeah, the ERA could have been lower.

Yeah, he was candid that he was down on himself at times, but I saw a lot of growth.

I saw a lot of maturity.

I think he's going to be in a good position for 2027.

The Pirates have no interest in trading him.

Their top four guys are going to be coming back.

And honestly, the last couple of years, their top four guys came back again.

The Spencer Horwitz trade, whenever Luis Ortiz was dealt, he was the number five starter, effectively.

There's not an official label next to the guy, but I think we could have all agreed he was probably the number five, number four at the highest.

Last winter, Mike Burroughs and Yohan Oviedo were probably the guys vying for that fifth spot in the rotation.

And both were trading.

And yeah, the Justinian Garcia trade hasn't really worked out for either one.

And yeah, Mike Burroughs had a rough year in Houston.

I think that I'm attributing a lot of that to the change in scenery.

Like if something would have happened and none of those trades happened and the Pirates would have gone into opening day last year with Luis Ortiz and Mike Burroughs and Yohan Oviedo as their 3-4-5.

I don't think a lot of people would have complained.

Now, obviously, there's Luis Ortiz's trial case.

We're assuming that wasn't going to happen here in Pittsburgh.

We're assuming Yohan Oviedo would have stayed healthy in Pittsburgh.

There are a lot of asterisks and question marks that surround it.

But those are three viable major league starting pitchers that the Pirates traded who were probably the number five guy in Pittsburgh who were not going to be the number five guy with their new team.

I look at the two guys who were probably the number five starter or in line to be right now this year.

And it's Mitch Keller and Karim Majenski and we both talked about them.

We both talked about exploring a trade because Mitch Keller is due to make $18 million and cash is tight.

And there is an argument to be made that, yeah, you trade Mitch Keller and you free up cash and you sign Brandon Lowe or whoever else.

I would need to have Brandon Lowe sign before I start doing that.

I'm not trading him away just to salary dump and hope to spend the money.

And I'm against it in general.

I wrote about it for Bookroll Bucks.

We brought it up here.

Like, I don't know if the juice is worth the squeeze of having to bring in another starting pitcher.

Karim Majenski, it's a different case in my opinion.

Because he's never been a full-time starter here.

There's just a different opportunity there that maybe you could get it overpay.

Because he is controllable, he has upside, he is cheap.

I think that's just a good trifecta for a potential trade.

But in either case, you have to look down the depth chart and see who are your other options.

Because this is a Pirates team that for two years, pretty much, we heard about the pitching factory and all these high upside guys.

The depth options, I do think they're major league quality, but they're not at the same level as Oviedo or Ortiz or Burroughs were at this point in their career, in my opinion.

And you don't use just five starting pitchers over the course of the year.

You use, normally, eight to ten.

You have to plan for eight to ten.

And I'm not going to, say the sky is falling.

The Pirates have eight to ten.

Out of those top six, exclude them, I look at that next tier of starting pitchers, including, in no particular order, Khristian Curtis, Hunter Barco, Wilber Dotel,

and Antwone Kelly.

Thomas Harrington is still on the 40-man roster, but that was a real rough year.

Prospects don't always pan out, and I think he's shown in his brief major league cameos in his time in AAA that he doesn't have a real out pitch.

I don't know if you can count on him to be part of your starting pitching plans.

But the Pirates have ten guys there.

Each of them, I think, comes with a bit of a question mark or an asterisk, and it does raise the question, do the Pirates have the depth that they could feel comfortable to make a trade like they did for Horwitz, like they did for Brandon Lowe?

Before we get into that, I'd like to thank today's sponsor, Larine Co.

We all know nicotine pouches are popular, and part of it isn't so much the nicotine as it is the routine.

Larine just launched a pouch that keeps the routine but leaves the nicotine out.

Larine Co pouches swap out the nicotine and give you clean focus and support your enamel the whole time they're in.

It works like the pouches you've seen before.

Just tuck one in and go about your day.

Each pouch has a half cup of coffee's worth of caffeine, plus L-theanine and alpha-GPC for a smooth, steady focus with no energy crash, and it gives your teeth daily enamel support in between brushings.

It comes in mint, cinnamon, and mango, and it's nicotine-free, always.

It's doing something good for your teeth, and it gives you smooth energy and focus without those jitters.

Every other pouch out there makes you pick between something that helps you focus and something that's actually good for your teeth.

This is the only one designed to do both, and it comes from a brand that's leading the way at supporting your oral health.

Give Larine a try.

Right now, Larine Co is offering our listeners up to 50% off at buylarine.com slash North Shore.

That's buylarine, L-A-R-I-N-E dot com slash North Shore for up to 50% off.

Of those four guys, Hunter Barco has had the most major league experience, and I believe it was spring training 2025.

It might have been 24, but I'm pretty sure it was 25, where I saw him pumping 96 miles per hour in Bradenton.

I was like, oh, okay, this could be big.

He did not hit 96 miles per hour on the gun once in AAA Indianapolis this year.

He was used as a starter, and he did not get that high up.

Barely touched 95.

And was really sitting more like 92, 93.

Obviously, not an absolute deal breaker.

Obviously, the Pirates have had success with softer tossing left-handed pitchers, and this rotation in general could use a lefty.

But, I don't know.

I look at this guy who was at one point regarded as a top 100 prospect.

Back end of the top 100, one of the last guys, but still top 100 nonetheless.

And I don't get that vibe right now.

I need to see the fastball velo.

I need to see how he's able to attack right-handed major league hitters.

His cameos in the bullpen have not gone particularly well.

I get it's a different role.

Different prep.

I'm not holding a shaky bullpen appearance in the major leagues as proof that he could not start in the major leagues.

It's a bit of an apples and oranges type deal.

But, if you don't like fruit, if you're not a fan of vitamin C, I don't know if changing is going to make that big a difference.

He does deserve a chance to start.

He is part of that starting pitching depth, in my opinion.

But, you're not going to get top 100, value if you do float to trade him.

Wilber Dotel, I thought was their breakout in 2025, under the radar, took another big step in 2026.

Had some Jekyll and Hyde.

Whenever he's working and he's pounding fastballs and cutters, it's like, I get Luis Ortiz pitching vibes.

I get that.

But, there is also just this, we saw a couple times where he just pitched a bagel.

And, he did not have it on a given day.

And, as a starting pitcher, you can't afford that.

Khristian Curtis, I really like the cutter.

Out of these guys, I think he is my personal, whatever that would be, the number seven guy on the death chart.

I really like the cutter.

But, we also saw him falter at the end of last year.

Whenever major league teams got a little look at him, it is a September call-up.

They are September stats.

You can't put all your eggs in that one basket.

But, it is, what is it?

April and September stats, you don't regard as in high esteem.

But, still, it is enough that I raise a bit of an eyebrow.

And, then, Antwone Kelly, love the fastball below, really looked like he was coming in flat.

I also always thought that he was probably more destined for the bullpen.

But, they're still giving him a chance to starter.

Good, that's what you should do with these guys.

Give them every opportunity to prove it.

And, he also showed that if there is major league opportunity or need at the major league bullpen, he will go in the bullpen.

Those four guys, I don't have to squint too hard to see them becoming a number five starter.

Especially if they're filling in for injury.

I like Dotel's stuff.

I like Curtis's cutter.

I like Barco's makeup.

I like Antwone Kelly's, whenever the fastball velo does rev up, like, there's something there.

These guys are worthy of their 40-man roster spots.

But, I look at the depth.

Outside of Conor Reekreif, I don't know who else, who isn't on a 40-man roster right now, could be in the mix for next year.

Like, Seth Hernandez, I know his goal is to make the major leagues next year.

That's a good goal.

I'm hesitant.

Maybe he can at the very end of the season, but he needs some time still in AAA.

I don't see a lot of help coming from the minor leagues right now.

Most of the top prospects right now are hitting prospects.

And this team needs hitters.

I, look, I have reservations about just salary dumping Mitch Keller.

I am not in favor of that.

I get the appeal of, if you get, quality starter price tag for Karin Mlodzinski exploring that trade, but I'm not trading him for pennies on the dollars either.

But those weren't the type of guys the Pirates were trading, the last two winners, to make these impact deals.

It was this tier of pitching.

And right now, I just don't think any of them, by themselves, could command a huge haul.

Maybe they could headline a package.

But how many prospects do you want to give up at that point?

This is a team that needs help, needs to take a step forward.

I think it might have to be internal growth for this starting core.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

If you haven't already, be sure to subscribe to RoV5 Podcasts or check us out on YouTube if you want to see my smiling face.

Thank you so much for listening.

We will talk again tomorrow.

All right, that wraps up this episode of North Shore Nine.

Thanks so much for tuning in.

Whether you're listening on the podcast or catching us on YouTube, if you enjoyed the show, please give this video a thumbs up.

And don't forget to hit that subscribe button if you haven't already.

It really helps us grow.

And if you're listening on the podcast, a quick review goes a long way in helping others find the show.

Plus, be sure to tell a friend about us.

There's always room for more here in the NS9 community.

And for those looking to support us a little more, consider joining our Patreon.

Become an MVP member and get exclusive perks while helping us continue to bring you more of the Pirates content you love.

Thanks again for all your support.

And Let's Go Bucs.

Thank you.