Where Does Nick Gonzales Fit for the Pirates in 2027?

A year ago today, Nick Gonzales was coming off of a really bad twenty twenty five campaign.

And you didn't know how he fit into this club moving forward.

The Pirates were always clear that he was going to be part of their twenty twenty six plans.

But for someone who's worth negative zero point seven war had a sub three hundred on base percentage and a well below average OPS plus.

It wasn't exactly clear.

where he would fit into this club.

In twenty twenty six, Nick Gonzales was one of the Pirates most consistent hitters at the plate.

He hit over three hundred.

Was it above average hitter?

Showed a lot.

And yet here we are a year later, and it's not exactly clear how does Nick Gonzales fit into this team moving forward?

Good morning and welcome to Offbeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

Nick Gonzales had a good year in twenty twenty six.

Going by baseball reference marks, he was worth one point six war, which for someone who is worth negative zero point seven war, that's almost a two and a half win turnaround in one year.

He put in a lot of work this winter.

And it showed and he produced.

And whenever I say, how does he fit into these plans in twenty twenty six?

It's not Indianapolis.

And that really did cross my mind after twenty twenty five of like.

Is he really going to be part of this plan?

Is he going to be a starter?

How does Nick Gonzales fit into this team?

And those thoughts were only heightened whenever the Pirates trade for Brandon Lowe.

It was clear that they were trying to add left-handed infield help.

But with Hayes gone, you thought, okay, it would be a third baseman first.

No, they took Brandon Lowe.

And that trade obviously was tremendous.

That was an A-plus acquisition.

But it also gave you a second baseman who was going to stick at second base.

The Pirates weren't going to be cute and bounce him around the diamond like the Rays did.

It was like, look, just focus on one position.

See what you can do.

Boy, did he show exactly what he can do.

Offensively, defensively, it was great.

The Pirates didn't end up acquiring another third baseman.

So Nick Gonzales was given an opportunity there.

And yet bats, like I said, they were good at bats.

If you have a couple men on base, a base hit brings home a run.

And that's a spot where you're going to get a lot of opportunities with men on base.

And he did a good job.

It was a good season.

Offensively.

Defensively, he was worth negative ten fielding run value, according to Baseball Savant.

And he was worth eight batting run value and one base running value.

And it's like, okay, you add that all together and that's a wash.

He was a good hitter who averaged out to be an average Major League Baseball player, more or less.

So there's something to be said of if he could just not be in the third percentile of fielding, that would be big.

Like if he could just get to being a below average defensive third baseman, even without that power, this is a two point something war player.

If you're looking for ways of how does this team get better in twenty twenty seven, I think Nick Gonzales is a candidate.

He is someone who can get better next year.

He is someone who is going to be part of these twenty twenty seven plans.

But right now we don't know what position.

Honestly, the only person in the infield who should feel confident about where they're going to play next year is Konnor Griffin.

He is their shortstop.

Even first base with Horwitz, with O'Hearn, I think it'd be wise to play O'Hearn more at first base this year.

I think that would do a lot to help him stay on the field, get him back to a workload that he's more accustomed to, what he had done in his major league career up to this point.

Still play a little outfield, but I think once a week is probably the sweet spot there.

And if that means that he's going to DH more or Spencer Horwitz is going to DH more, that's fine.

Figure it out.

But first base is a little in question.

We know the characters of who are going to be there most of the time.

We just don't know the division of labor.

Konnor Griffin will be at short.

And now you've got Nick Gonzales at second or third.

And for someone who was worth negative nine fielding run value at third base, you'd think send him over to second, but he was also in a much more limited sense worth negative two fielding

runs.

And he was someone who up to this point in his career was graded average, if not slightly above average.

He's not an elite defensive player, but he could play second base.

And that wasn't the case this year.

I think it might have been a case of trying to ask a little too much, focusing so much on third base that you get out of the routines at second.

I think Nick Gonzales would definitely benefit from focusing in on one position.

I don't know if he is going to have the opportunity to do that this winter.

Because whenever this lockout happens...

Unless the Pirates have an answer in the infield and acquire someone before December one, man, it's going to put them in a position of how do you prepare for next year?

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Obviously, the best thing that could happen for the Pirates this winter is Brandon Lowe.

Re-signs.

I'm not exactly optimistic it'll happen.

Never say never, obviously.

He seemed happy here.

It seemed like he liked being in a spot where he was respected so much.

And maybe that does play a factor in any negotiations here.

But I...

I'm not exactly optimistic.

This is someone who I think is going to sign for at the barest of minimums.

This would be my guess, not source, but just guess based off of how previous contracts have worked for middle infielders around his age.

If Jorge Polanco could get twenty million dollars per year, I think Brandon Lowe could get twenty million dollars per year.

And Brandon Lowe is probably going to get a third or fourth year as well.

So maybe never say never, but whenever you look at how many players on this team are going to be ARB eligible and it's going to be jacking that, number up,

Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Carmen Mlodzinski, you wonder, okay, what does that mean?

How much money do they have to spend on free agency on trades?

Another one of those players who is going to be entering arbitration for the first time is Nick Gonzales, who this year crossed over three years of service time.

So whatever the plan is for him, the clock is ticking.

We've crossed over the halfway point of how long he is under team control.

Now he had a good year.

I don't think he's going to have, absolutely break the bank in arbitration this year, but it is going to be enough whenever you have Skenes and Jones and Mlodzinski and raises for Cruz and,

Endy Rodríguez and Henry Davis are eligible.

It's a long list of players who are going to be paid significant money for the first time of their professional careers.

I don't know how much money the Pirates have outside to bolster this roster.

That's what makes a Nick Gonzales so important is you can look at second base or third base and theoretically be like one of these positions is set.

Got to figure out second base or third base.

I don't think you can.

You can't, in my opinion, go with Jacob Gonzalez as your everyday third baseman next year and be considered serious.

You have to acquire someone through some means, this winter for one of those positions.

And you have until December one to do it.

You can make a trade or a signing, whatever the new CBA is resolved.

But if twenty twenty one twenty twenty two is any indicator.

I would guess the very safe money is whenever that CBA is resolved, whether it is in January or February or March or April or beyond,

spring training is probably going to get started right after.

I don't see an outcome where this is resolved on January tenth and spring training is just business as usual.

See you guys in a month.

No, it is going to be CBA is signed.

Get to work.

We've got to get going.

And that's not exactly fair to the front offices across the league who are just trying to assemble rosters.

It creates a challenge.

of what do you want to do?

Do you want to get your bird in the hand, free agent?

Or do you want to wait and see what the MLB financial structure maybe looks like at the end of this new CBA?

Is there light at the end of the tunnel?

Can you spend more?

I think it's wishful thinking to expect a significant overhaul and everyone's just throwing money around in twenty twenty seven.

But it's technically a possibility.

There's a lot that needs to be resolved, a lot that needs to be done.

The Pirates need to find another infielder, assuming Brandon Lowe does not come back.

I break the bank to bring back Brandon Lowe, but I also get that he is going to be very popular.

He is the best left-handed free agent in this hitting market.

He is going to get a big contract somewhere.

And whenever you have a former first-round pick who is a second baseman by trade, who could fill that spot, that's not a horrible replacement.

But is he a second baseman?

Is he going to go over to third?

Do the Pirates decide to really go in on acquiring multiple infielders and we see Nick Gonzales get outfield reps?

It's not out of the realm of possibility.

And it's something that I remember whenever the Pirates drafted him, his Cape Cod coach league was telling me, yeah, I could see him as an outfielder in the major leagues in the future.

I know that's a long time ago, but that's always stuck with me.

Like, hey, he knew him pretty well, and that's where he thought he profiled best.

Time will tell.

Time will tell.

Because this is obviously going to be the most important year in recent Pirates history, and Nick Gonzales can be one of the faces of that club.

This is a team that needs right-handed bats.

I know he had a poor offensive season against left-handed pitching, and I don't see any.

There is no yeah, but.

Like, twenty-twenty-five, bad year against left-handed pitching, but a really good xwOBA.

This year is bad results and bad expected results.

But if you're like, just buy that he'll bounce back there.

For a team that needs to get better against left-handed pitchers, and he was your best right-handed hitters last year, he needs to be part of that equation.

Position's a big part of it.

Last winter, he and Joey Ortiz of the Brewers spent a lot of time together trying to do some work together, trying to grow defensively.

Joey Ortiz is one of the best defensive players in the year, in the game.

This wasn't the first winter they did it.

I don't know this is fact, but if I had to take a guess, I would imagine they would probably link up at some point, especially if there's a lockout going on and they can't spend time with team or going to team facilities.

Maybe something will rub off here because Nick Gonzales needs to improve as a defender.

It'd be a lot easier if he could just focus in on one position.

I think it'd be better for the club and for Nick if the Pirates knew where he was going to play before that lockout.

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