Why the Brewers Will Beat the Rays in the World Series

I've been given predictions throughout this postseason, and while I will admit I've missed a couple along the wildcard round and the divisional round,

my World Series pick since day one has been steadfast.

It was going to be the Brewers versus the Rays.

And while so much has been made about how great a story this is, that two lower payroll, can't really call Tampa a small market, but effectively small market teams are going to be playing each other.

And we are guaranteed to have a team win their first World Series ever.

The pick, I thought, if anything, was a little uninspired.

These two teams were the best clubs in the National League and the American League all year.

And then they showed that again in the postseason, vanquishing who I thought the second best teams were, sweeping away the Dodgers and the Yankees.

Now they're going to play each other in the World Series.

Let's break it down here.

Good morning, and welcome to Offbeat, here on North Shore Nine, presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates, and today, Major League Baseball.

I will admit, I am a hair early here.

Series doesn't start until Friday, but Fridays this offseason are going to be mail calls, so...

if you have a question leave it in the comments that's called a call to action in case you didn't know and i will be in arizona tomorrow checking out some arizona fall league ball so we'll focus there so let's do it a hair

early rather than too late the brewers and the rays are going to be playing each other in the world series how they got there

We've broken down in a couple episodes here how the Brewers are built on culture, how they're built on coaching and development.

And yes, in both of these cases, analytics, even if Twitter doesn't like bringing that up all the time.

These are the two smartest kids in the classroom.

They are coached well.

They play smart baseball.

They play error free.

There's a reason why they were the best two teams, not through only one sixty two, but in the postseason as well.

And I got to say these two teams match up remarkably well.

I'm going to give the Rays the advantage for starting pitching, especially with fastball Freddy Peralta, what he's been doing lately.

And if he could come out of the bullpen, man, that would be a weapon.

Well, the Brewers, I think it's a lot more Misiorowski and Gasser.

And look, seven-game series, they've had some time to rest.

I think the sweep does create some opportunity for them.

That they could set up like Misiorowski for game one, game five, and bullpen in game seven.

And whenever you're in the World Series and you've got one of the best, maybe the Cy Young winner, maybe the best righty pitching right now, in my opinion.

Yeah.

I want him to throw as many innings as possible.

I want him to be as rested as possible.

And he is in that position right now.

But whenever I look at this pitching, look, the Rays have a really good bullpen.

The Rays have a top five bullpen in baseball.

Even if Baker's fastball velo is going down and it's raising an eyebrow a little bit, this Brewers bullpen, man, they're just unleashing hell right now.

The way that they're able to go to everyone and anyone, it really seems like, yeah, Megill, okay, so you got an all-star closer.

That's pretty good right here.

And then you got Abner Uribe.

You've got Aaron Ashby.

Aaron Ashby going the last three innings in the clinching game.

San Zantella.

JoJo Romero, lefty, coming out of nowhere.

Just quietly in the background, becoming a main character this postseason.

Like, there's just...

A bunch of guys here who not only can get three outs, they can get six outs.

They can get nine outs.

They could be thrown into the middle of jams.

They don't need to inherit a clean inning.

There's just so much in this Brewers bullpen.

The Dodgers had no answer for it.

The Padres, who were the hottest team in baseball, they had no answer for it.

This is... There is no unit...

Either of these two teams have.

Starting pitching, positional, infield, outfield.

The bullpen of the Brewers is the best out of anyone.

Nobody is able to match this.

The Braves cannot counter with, okay, but they've got a better outfield than the Brewers have a bullpen.

No, the Brewers' bullpen is the best in baseball.

And you pair that with a Cy Young contender, I think the Brewers have the edge pitching-wise here.

If these two teams played one hundred sixty-two games against each other, then yeah, I think the Rays' starting pitching depth is greater and they could do more, but you're not playing one sixty-two, you're playing seven.

And you're playing seven where the Brewers are going to be as rested as they possibly can be.

They did quick work of the Dodgers.

They got to stay home.

They got to scout those extra games.

They got to rest.

They got to practice.

They're going to be coming in fresh with a capital F.

And that's important whenever you're going to be asking your relievers, hey, you're going to go two innings today.

You're going to go two and a third.

You might have to go three ups.

They have those weapons in the bullpen who can do that.

I think the pitching is a real advantage for the Brewers in this series.

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Switching focus to the hitters here.

I just want to go positional, quick.

Bang.

Catcher.

I think William Contreras is the best all-around catcher in the National League.

And he has been for a couple years now.

Liam Hicks, Nick Fortes, the Rays get by at catchers.

They do the type of things that, the Rays like their catchers to do.

But William Contreras is one of the heartbeats of this club.

He is really an offensive force.

He handles the pitching staff.

He is an emotional leader.

Yeah, I'm leaning Brewers here.

First base, Aranda for the Rays.

Really good year, really good postseason.

But Jake Bauers, the NLCS MVP, playing like a man possessed right now.

Yeah, I'm going to go with him.

And I'm also going to round out the right side of the infield.

Brice Turang is the better option here, I think.

Richie Palacios.

Big hit in game six.

Good player.

Good season in general.

Can do a little bit of everything, but I think that Brice Turang is one of the game's premier second basemen.

Twenty-one homers.

Nineteen stolen bases.

you're talking twenty-twenty potential with a hundred RBI and really good defense.

Baseball-Reference valued him at seven war.

Yeah.

Yeah, I'm going to go with him.

Right side of the infield is the Brewers.

Left side of the infield, I'm going to give it to the Rays here.

Like, David Hamilton and Cooper Pratt, they're fine, but, those are bottom-thirty-order guys.

While Walls and especially Junior Caminero are two of the best that the Rays have to offer.

Junior Caminero, that homer that he hit in Game Six, and, the pure emotion, that was fun to watch.

He is a great player.

we're talking about someone who's going to hit forty homers, drive in a hundred runs, and he's still just twenty-three.

Like, he's young.

We could see this for years from him.

I really wonder what he's going to do long-term, but yeah, I'm going to give the left side of the infield to the Rays, the right side of the infield to the Brewers, and the outfield, look,

chandler simpson has his appeal Victor Mesa Jr. has been plus cedric mullins has been fine like Jonny DeLuca like there's

Ryan Vilade however he's deployed like there's good players in this Rays outfield but have you been watching Jackson Chourio

This kid is, he's slowly building his way to superstar status.

Like he is close to being there.

And what he did against San Diego, I think we could reflect and be like, that was a little bit of a coming out party.

Tools wise.

Whenever I covered the Brewers last offseason, or last postseason, excuse me, he was the one who really struck me.

Whenever I could watch him day to day, I'm like, yeah.

Yeah, he was even hobbled a little bit, but I see the potential.

I see how he can impact the game.

He is the number one game impactor of any outfielder in this World Series, and Garrett Mitchell is probably second.

So yeah, even though Sal Frelick is not having a good year, I still think the outfield is an advantage for the Brewers.

And then Christian Yelich versus Yandy Díaz.

I have been enamored by Yandy Díaz for a while.

I thought he would have looked great in black and gold.

But...

Never came to be, or at least hasn't to this point.

Yelich, former MVP, I know it's been a rough year.

Anything can change in a seven-game series.

I wouldn't be shocked if he put some stuff together, but no, yeah, it's Yandy Díaz here.

These are two rosters that match up pretty well.

Pick one side of the outfield.

Brewers slight advantage, for, or which side of the infield?

Brewers slight advantage for the outfield, but better DH work.

Catcher probably leans Brewers.

This all just, the way I interpret it, the Brewers are a slightly better club.

They match up well, and with their bullpen and how they can deploy their pitchers, I think they end up on top here.

I think the Brewers win this in seven games.

It is going to be a fun World Series.

I wouldn't be shocked if this is darn near close to seven home games for Milwaukee because I think Brewer fans are going to travel.

I think they are going to represent.

The Trop hasn't had a World Series game since two thousand eight.

There are a lot of Yankee fans in the LDS.

It's not always the easiest sell.

We'll see how they respond to World Series tickets, but I wouldn't be shocked if we hear some cheers if the Brewers do something special in Tampa.

I think they have the pitching versatility, maybe a slight edge on offense.

The Rays, look, if there is any team in baseball who I think could beat the Brewers in a seven game series, it's probably the Rays.

I think the Rays probably match up better over one sixty two, but they're not playing one sixty two.

They're playing seven and I have the Brewers winning this in seven games.

Thank you so much for listening to Offbeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

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We will talk again tomorrow.

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