2026 MLB Playoff Predictions: Upsets Are Coming

I have done, by my count, a hundred and forty-five episodes of Offbeat.

And in just about every single one of them, I said that this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

I've got to admit, we're changing it a little bit, okay?

It's the postseason.

It's the offseason.

We're going to have a few episodes dedicated to larger things going across the league and what is bigger than the MLB postseason.

Let's talk about some of these matchups and who I like.

Good morning and welcome to Offbeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates and sometimes Major League Baseball.

The playoffs start on Tuesday.

It's a good slate of games.

I'm going to preface this by saying that of the four teams playing in this wildcard round, three of them are really good stories and one of them is the Houston Astros.

I think it's disgusting that eighty one and eighty one could get you into the postseason.

Maybe a Pirates fan, maybe it could be argued, the Pirates.

Oh, they would have won the West.

Well, they're not in the West.

And I just solely out of principle.

This team.

That made the postseason.

once with a sub-five hundred record in twenty twenty was a game away from the World Series.

How disgusting that was.

Here they are, but so much worse.

Their pitching is atrocious.

They're starting with a bullpen game to start the postseason.

It's a terrible team that is driven by the MVP.

I think Yordan Alvarez will be the AL MVP.

He is a capital D dude.

He is having an outstanding season.

He's the only reason why we're still watching the Astros here taking their last gasp of their semi-quasi, semi-legitimate dynasty.

He's the only reason why they're still kicking.

And honestly, I really like the White Sox here.

Because just the optics of it.

You've got a young upstart that is exceeding expectation.

They are flawed as hell.

I am not, going to champion the White Sox all the way through.

But this is a team that's stuck together.

They learned together.

They won together.

And whenever you have guys like Vargas at the center of it means a lot.

Facing that versus decaying dinosaurs, I'm taking the White Sox.

I think they are the better club here.

I guess I should preface these are solely predictions.

These are not endorsements.

But this is just talking ball ahead of one of the best parts of the season.

I just don't look at this Astros team and see much here.

I don't see much reason for optimism.

Another team that I look at and I just don't see a lot of reason for optimism is the Phillies, who had a real ugly collapse.

They barely snuck into the postseason.

There are a lot of issues surrounding them.

I can't help but wonder Could they stick around?

Could they shock people?

It's a short series.

In Atlanta, I'll be totally honest, I don't know how sold I am on them.

They made some good deadline moves.

Everyone was complaining about their deadline.

You check what they got production-wise, it worked out great.

There's still a lot here, but this team in the second half just hasn't had the same fizzle, in my opinion.

And now I'm prefacing this by saying the Phillies were terrible.

They barely hung in down the stretch.

And you don't know what you're going to get out of Luzardo.

You don't know if Wheeler's going to be able to... what would the students he could pitch be?

Game three on short rest, maybe?

Aaron Nola has not been great this year.

There are a lot of question marks here, but you know what?

There are enough heavy hitters that you just have to be good two games out of three.

Kyle Schwarber is the type of guy who can take control of a series.

Bryce Harper, I know he's been up and down.

I know Trea Turner in particular has really slumped of late, but these are guys that can catch fire.

They can figure something out.

They can...

Deal a game or two.

So I look at Philly.

I'm like, I think this is my upset here.

I'm not basing them how they got in.

I'm looking at them solely as one of the twelve teams still dancing.

And I think it's as talented a roster as anywhere in baseball.

Well, this Braves team, I know they won a World Series in twenty twenty one, but they don't have a ton of the same pieces here.

still obviously Acuna, even though he wasn't there, for the.

Actual postseason in twenty twenty one.

You still have all these, you still have.

Sale.

There are still big pieces here, but I don't know something.

It's not logical.

It's not logical.

That's why you shouldn't take any of these as endorsements.

This is just someone who has watched way too much ball over the years being like, Philly's got a little something here, and I want to see what they can do.

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Yankees Red Sox is the toughest to predict.

In my opinion, because one, this is such a Jekyll and Hyde Red Sox team.

They should have the pitching.

They should be talented enough to just take on any team.

And they were as hot as any team in baseball the last hundred games of the season.

But they have that ugly uncertainty aspect around them.

Meanwhile, the Yankees.

Is Aaron Judge going to play?

Not having that bat in any capacity, even if it's just DH, it's crippling for this team.

They don't have enough firepower without Aaron Judge to make a deep run.

I know they were the second best team by record in the AL.

Honestly, I think there were only three teams in the AL I would categorize as good.

And these are two of them.

These are two of the best.

This bracket of this wildcard series and the winner going to Tampa is by far the best baseball we are going to see in October from the American League.

NL is pretty stacked in my opinion.

Everyone there deserves a spot.

In the AL, there's only three teams.

And two of them are going to play each other immediately.

I think the Yankees do end up on top here.

I'm not an inside source here, just guts.

Aaron Judge, being very conscious, I imagine, of his legacy, I think he finds a way to grit his teeth and play.

And even if he's not, if your captain is going all out, you play hard.

And I think that makes a difference here.

And then you got the Padres and Cubs.

And you want to talk about gritting through the pain right now.

Alex Bregman.

Wow.

There's no question with him.

That two-homer game on Saturday.

That established, like, hey, I'm going to play, and I am Alex Bregman.

I have had a great career.

I am going to try to add another chapter to it.

And oh yeah, they got that, what's his name?

It's three letters here.

Oh yeah, PCA.

He's pretty good.

He's going to win the MVP.

Forty-forty is dominant a final four months of a season.

We've seen from a pure hitter since, what, Judge in twenty-two and before him.

yelich in eighteen like he's really good but the padres have a one-two punch

at the back end of their bullpen and i think over a seven game series that doesn't mean as much if you could see Morejón and

Adrián Morejón and Mason Miller.

Three or four or five times.

I don't think they're going to be as effective.

I think the hitters will adapt.

See him two or three times.

They'll figure him out.

But in a short series like this, I think having two of the top...

I'll be...

very conservative with this two of the top ten relief pitchers in the game this season probably two of the top five is a difference maker i think especially if

you push miller two innings especially if you push Morejón two innings like there is just ways to do this that you can let your best players make a big impact

And I think that does help the Padres here.

I know there's some bad taste in their mouth.

They got a rematch from last year.

And I can't help but wonder...

how much steam is left in this Padres engine.

This feels like their last great chance.

Maybe they can make the postseason next year, but this is a roster that has been slowly decaying and getting older and getting worse and pieces leave and Machados and Bogaerts produce less and with

big contracts, the longer they go without a championship, the tougher the path comes.

This feels like maybe their last great chance.

And I think they escaped the wild card round this time.

As for the World Series, I'm boring.

I'm taking the two number one seeds.

Give me the Rays, give me the Brewers.

I sang my praises of the Brewers on a offbeat not that long ago whenever they clinched the postseason at PNC Park.

I think they have the best culture in baseball.

I think they have incredible buy-in.

Contreras getting pulled recently.

Last week, getting pulled from a game because he wasn't running down hard to first base.

And then the next day, he hits a ground ball and he's diving headfirst into first base after busting his butt.

That's why the Brewers are great.

Because even when they set the franchise record for the most wins in a season, the entire time they're like, the only way we can do this is because we have

You.

Even Contreras, who's...

I know Yelich is the captain, but Contreras is the guy who fuels that team.

You've got to be one hundred percent, too, or we are screwed.

And if you're not giving a hundred percent, we're going to put in someone who will.

That's just the attitude.

I think getting to the NLCS last year was a big step forward.

But I don't fear these Dodgers.

I think that bullpen will doom them.

Ohtani is...

Not going to make the same impact pitching as he did before.

It's a different Dodger team.

It's a different Brewer team.

I like the Brewers to win that battle of David versus Goliath.

And then the Rays, like I said, that ALDS may as well just be for the pennant.

But they have so much talent, so much.

I think Junior Caminero is going to do something really special this October.

I think this is going to be where if you know Ball, obviously you know him.

But maybe the people who don't know Ball all that well or are just tuning in more for the postseason, I think the whole league is going to know what this guy is about.

We'll see, and I reserve the right to amend these predictions as the postseason continues on, but you're going to have to subscribe to hear that.

So thank you for listening to Offbeat here on North Shore Nine, presented by FanDuel.

If you haven't already, be sure to subscribe wherever you find podcasts, or check us out on YouTube to see my smiling face.

Thank you so much for listening.

We will talk again tomorrow.

All right, that wraps up this episode of North Shore Nine.

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