MLB Division Series Predictions: Who’s Moving On?

We know who is going to be playing in the divisional round this year.

So why don't we make another batch of playoff predictions?

Good morning and welcome to Offbeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates and occasionally the rest of Major League Baseball.

The wildcard round basically went...

how I foresaw the one exception being Philadelphia falling to Atlanta.

That was just two very controversial pitching choices in that game, or in that series.

The one being pushing Duran as much as they did.

Like, I liked bringing him in the seventh inning, and yeah, I get going for the eighth.

They didn't exactly have a lot of great bullpen options to pick from, but you really start to see him waver at the end.

It ends up biting them.

And while I think Philadelphia probably should have won that series, Atlanta advances.

The other three, Houston Astros, look dead on arrival.

The White Sox took care of business.

The Padres, the hottest team in baseball going into the postseason, absolutely took care of business against Chicago.

They shut down PCA.

Real easy series win there.

And, man, the Red Sox just do not show up in October at all, do they?

Yankees advance even without Aaron Judge.

And I think that's where we're going to start in this divisional round preview, is do the Yankees have the firepower to still win without Aaron Judge?

We don't know yet what his playoff availability is going to be.

Maybe he will be on that divisional roster, but whenever you miss the wildcard round roster, I'm skeptical.

If he is available, how much can he play?

If he can play, how good is he going to be?

He is the Yankees' best player, and without him, it's a lot tougher.

It's a lot tougher to navigate this Rays rotation, this Rays bullpen.

And the pitching on the Yankee side is going to be challenged from this Rays offense.

The Rays are just a good all-around ball club.

They can beat you a small ball.

They've got some pop.

They can pitch at you.

They can win in a lot of different ways.

There's a reason why this team won the division.

The AL East was probably the best division in baseball this year.

And the Rays were on top comfortably.

These are the two top teams in the American League.

I feel pretty confident.

you've got to play the games, obviously.

But I feel pretty confident that whoever wins this series is probably going to be playing in the World Series.

What do you do?

Can the Yankees get the pitching?

Can they get offense from people who aren't Aaron Judge?

Getting Stanton back for the wildcard round was a nice little boost.

It does give them that right-handed power.

One of the big X factors in this series for me is what are those environments going to be like in Tampa Bay?

Because we saw the last time the Rays hosted playoff games, They didn't sell out.

I don't think that's going to be an issue this year because there are so many Yankee fans in the area.

Is this going to be a soft home field advantage where maybe they have more seats, but there are going to be plenty of Yankee fans there?

Could the Yankee fans actually outnumber the Rays fans?

It is a wild proposition and one that might dictate How this series is played.

Going into Yankee Stadium, even if it's lesser than its forefather's stadium, is still a daunting task.

But if you're going to be facing an environment even comparable to that whenever you're at home, that could be a difference maker.

Still, I like the Rays here.

And like I said last time, this is not advice.

These are just predictions from someone who likes talking ball.

The other AL series is far less compelling.

You have the Guardians, you have the White Sox.

And Cleveland is a team that, they just find ways to win.

It's ugly, usually most of the way.

But whenever they do win, it is usually with their pitching, their defense, preventing runs.

And the White Sox are an offensive-driven club.

They showed in Houston that they could do damage one through nine.

And the pitching is a real question.

Starting with the bullpen game in game one, it worked out beautifully, but that's far from ideal.

I don't know who the White Sox can really turn to whenever their back is up against the wall, rotation-wise.

Well, that's not an issue in Cleveland.

So what do you bet on here?

Do you say, you know what, I trust my pitching here or I trust the offense?

And honestly, I can't help but think maybe it's the White Sox still.

I'm not that impressed by this Guardians team.

And while this Chicago team is wildly flawed and far from complete, they are two years removed from one hundred twenty one losses.

They're not going to be a complete ballclub by any means.

But they're powered.

They've got power.

come together as a group, it really does look like, to borrow the expression, like a power friendship team.

Like I said, I think whoever comes out of that AL East-Juggernaut matchup is going to be going to the World Series.

But, you know what?

This is still a chance to go to the ALCS, and anything can happen in a seven-game series if you get there.

I think the White Sox are flawed, but I think they still have enough power to get through this series.

I think they end up on top.

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Moving on to the National League.

We've got two good matchups here, but I really am looking forward to Brewers-Padres.

Because last year, the Brewers were the number one seed.

They were the top team in the National League.

It was quite possibly the best team in franchise history.

But after that really long winning streak, you could tell they were running on fumes at the end.

And I think that was pretty evident in that Chicago series last year in the divisional round that they got some rest.

And whenever they had that extra rest, they were able to muscle through two wins early.

And then you just saw the wheels start to fall off and boarded.

They look wiped out for a bit.

They were able to come through in game five, but you could really tell that was them using the last.

They emptied the tank, and they were able to beat their bully.

They were able to finally advance, win a playoff series.

But the Dodgers faced a team that was completely out of gas.

And the Dodgers took advantage and quickly swept and went to the World Series.

I didn't see that same finish from Chicago this year.

I saw a team that was running through the bag through.

And while there could still be concerns of how deep can you count on Misiorowski to go into games, how deep can you count on the starting pitching, I still believe in the culture.

I still believe in the depth in the lineup, the depth on the pitching staff, that they're still the team to beat here.

There's a lot to like with the Padres.

I didn't foresee Joe Musgrove coming back, even if he is just a reliever.

And he looked he wasn't one hundred percent, obviously, but he looked like someone who can make an impact in this postseason, even if he's only going to make one, two outings in this series.

even if it's like just two innings or four innings or however long it goes, you could see how he is an extra weapon here that I didn't know if San Diego was going to have.

And if like the way Bogaerts was hitting against the Cubs, if he is able to even resemble the guy that they thought they were signing away from Boston, that is a huge,

huge swing here.

It's obviously a very small sample size, but Bogaerts had some really good swings.

Obviously, we know what Tatis can do to a ball game.

We know what Machado can do to a ball game.

There's a lot of people in San Diego who can win ball games, individuals, but I am, again, sticking with the team.

The team-first mentality in Milwaukee, I think, is just different.

It is just a different culture, a different ball club.

And I still have them winning this series.

Atlanta Dodgers, to wrap up here, wasn't that impressed from Atlanta in the wildcard round.

They were able to come back late, and honestly, that might be their best path here.

the way the Braves won game one, they might have to play that way this entire series because this Dodgers bullpen is a disaster.

If their starting pitchers are going seven innings each game, the Dodgers will win.

All Atlanta really needs to do is have Long at bats, have Pesky at bats, try to get into that bullpen in the fifth inning, the sixth inning, just try to find ways to get those starters out of this game.

If they do that, they're going to take this series.

If they don't, the Dodgers are going to win.

I think it's a pretty clear cut what is the X factor for this series.

It's just that.

How many innings are these Dodgers starting pitchers going to throw?

I don't see a path where if the Dodger goes seven, eight innings that the Braves are going to win that ballgame.

Still, I...

Think there are a lot of miles on this Dodgers team.

Two deep playoff runs the last two years, obviously winning the World Series.

A long year this year, the questions with the bullpen.

I still see, look, I still see the bones of a championship team.

The bones of a team that could three-peat.

But I also see a lot of miles.

I see ways that the tires could fall off.

I'm taking Atlanta here.

I think Atlanta is maybe not the favorite, but give them two potential elimination games at home.

give them opportunities against this Dodgers bullpen, I think they are going to win the longer these games go.

The Braves are the team that wins whenever it goes to extra innings in this series.

I think it'll be a really good series.

I think it's really close.

It's probably the one that I personally feel is most like a coin flip right now, but I will take Atlanta.

And the Dodger dynasty takes a year off.

And no surprise, I guess, Since neither one of them played in the wild card round, but I still have my World Series as Brewers versus Rays.

I'm still taking the two best ball clubs that I saw over one sixty two teams that.

Still have to win.

Seven more ball games.

But I think are in the best position to win those seven games.

We'll see if that needs to be amended after this divisional round.

Thank you so much for listening to Offbeat this week here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

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Thank you so much for listening.

Have a good weekend.

Enjoy some baseball.

We will talk again on Monday.

All right, that wraps up this episode of North Shore Nine.

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