Can Bryan Reynolds Replace What Brandon Lowe Gave the Pirates?

In a perfect world, the Pirates would be bringing back Brandon Lowe this winter.

It just doesn't look that plausible.

I've seen a lot of theories online of how the Pirates could move money around and how they could make it work somehow, some way.

And one theory I saw recently was offload Bryan Reynolds' contract.

Number one, let's just start off with the basics.

That's not happening.

Bryan Reynolds is going to be a Pirate in 2027, barring something very unforeseen.

But what made Brandon Lowe so important to this offense was he was the guy who was setting the pace.

What if Reynolds could be that guy in 2027?

Good morning and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

I meant that with Brandon Lowe.

I meant that with Brandon Lowe.

He was the guy who set the pace last year.

He really didn't have a bad month.

In five months he hit at least five home runs and the only month that he didn't was July where he batted 313 and still had an 825 OPS.

He was pretty consistent through and I meant that he had better months and he did have a couple rough weeks scattered in there, but his production year-round was pretty astounding.

It didn't matter who didn't matter what external factors were going on, he found a way to contribute very consistently.

And that's what every team searches for in this game.

Consistent offense.

Consistent players in general, but consistent offense.

Guys who are the same day coming in, day in, day out.

You don't know if they went 3 for 4 or 0 for 4.

Those type of mindset, mentality people.

And Bryan Reynolds, in that regard, is one of those people.

We've never seen him get real low.

We haven't seen him get all that real high.

He has always been at that pretty close to baseline.

His performance, on the other hand, he has had some highs.

Some really high highs.

And then he didn't do much in the second half of this year.

And that was an issue.

Bryan Reynolds had a 933 OPS in May and 911 OPS in June.

878 in the first half of the season.

He should have been an all-star, in my opinion.

14 home runs, 59 RBI, 7 stolen bases.

He did a lot.

That was great.

Second half of the season, really wasn't the same player.

Batting average dipped from 283 to 229.

OBP from 400 to 312.

Slugging, 477 to 347.

878 OPS in the first half of the year.

659 in the second half.

14 home runs the first half of the year.

3 in the second half.

And just 13 runs batted in 64 games played.

Now there's data out there that claims that the weather impacted him more than any other hitter this past year for home run power.

And I, who am I to argue with a, with a claim on Twitter that doesn't have tangible data behind it.

But I will take it at face value.

And he is someone who, we're always going to see some long fly balls.

Sometimes they turn into home runs.

Sometimes they turn into doubles.

He hit 40 doubles this year.

Some years, flip of the coin, that turns into like 35, low 30 doubles and he hits five or 10 more homers.

So, I'm not necessarily ripping on that, but it is a trend with him that he generally peaks in the first half of the season.

He generally peaks in June.

This, he had a really good finish to 2025, but that came at the cost of him not having a good first half of 2025.

And in the second half of this year, look, I'm not going to throw a whole lot of the Pirates' July swoon at his feet.

I think there were multiple factors in play.

The injuries not being aggressive enough to add to the bullpen until literally deadline day.

But his fall off in the second half is part of it.

He's someone who was hitting at an all-star pace and then drove in 13 runs in 64 games from there on out.

And he was playing in the heart of the order.

Yeah, maybe the weather played a factor in it, but we have seen in the past him, A, fall off in the second half of the season.

He had a 719 OPS in 2024, the last time he was at all-star.

719 OPS the rest of the way after the all-star game.

But there's also another question mark with him of whenever he was really cooking in May and June, that was the deepest lineup he had been a part of with the Pirates.

Pitchers couldn't pitch around him.

They had to pitch him because who do you want to go to?

Do you want to go to O'Hearn?

Do you want to go to Brandon Lowe?

He didn't have a lot of protection come July and August because O'Hearn was on the injured list.

And Konnor Griffin was on the injured list.

And Spencer Horwitz was on the injured list.

I think that does play a factor, that whenever the offense really needs him to step up, if guys go down without that protection, he hasn't been able to match the same level of production.

One of the things that made Brandon Lowe so valuable was that consistency that he brought in every day.

He set the tone.

He set the pace.

What if Bryan Reynolds could be that guy next year?

What if he could do, maybe he doesn't have, the high 900s OPS in a month in May and June, but he's more of the consistent, steady force.

It turns in low 800 OPS month in and month out.

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Now, this is a thought exercise with Reynolds because I don't know what the magic formula is for getting him to be the same guy in April and in June and in September and ideally October.

I don't have a lot of insight on what exactly makes him click in that way, but I think that would be extremely beneficial to this lineup that does have some boom or bust variants, I fear, going into next year.

Esmerlyn Valdez played really well in 2026, he deserves to go into 2027 expecting a good chunk of playing time.

He should be part of their plans.

In my opinion, he is my opening day right fielder.

He also had some real feast or famine months.

He found ways to draw walks, get on base, but like if he's not hitting homers, if he's not driving extra base hits, the OPS really does crater fast.

You can have those type of hitters in the lineup if you have the steady forces.

Konnor Griffin, I think, really did a lot of improving as the year went on, but, the injuries, it was, they defined his year.

Where we saw him for effectively half of the season, and I liked what I saw, but, I don't know.

There's still, until you've played a full year, and you've hit a full year, it's always going to be a question mark.

Nick Gonzales, I, at this very moment, I have him penciled in to slide over back to second base, in the event that Brandon Lowe does leave.

And I guess I'd put either Jacob Gonzalez or Jared Triolo at third base, but I'm very much looking to acquire an infielder.

There's variance, there's risk with them, too.

Spencer Horwitz, we saw him have a bad starter 2025 and really good finish, and then in 2026, he had a really good, strong start in the first half, and then wasn't the same guy in the second half.

Variance there, too.

Really, the only guys looking at this lineup, I see the potential of a really good lineup here, but the only two guys that I feel like, yeah, I know what to expect from them in 2027 are Reynolds and O'Hearn.

Everyone else, there's a lot more question marks.

And Oneil Cruz, and Oneil Cruz.

Let me reflect back.

Yeah, O'Neal, too, I think would be a good hitter.

But even then, he didn't have a good 2025.

You need those steady forces in the lineup.

That's why the Pirates signed him to that $100 million deal.

It was because they knew they needed someone steady here.

That's what they wanted to buy with him.

They liked the person, they liked the player, and they needed just that stalwart.

They needed that guy to be the stud in the middle of the lineup for years to come.

And this is a team that finally has a winning record.

That is not too far from the postseason on paper.

But they are going to be losing their top performer this year.

And I don't know how they replace him with a player who is going to match that same level of production.

That means you need to get production elsewhere.

And yeah, that could mean home runs.

That could mean RBI.

That could mean war.

But it also means consistency.

And Reynolds has, in my opinion, the capacity to be that consistent hitter.

Who, whenever we look at the end of the year, at his month-by-month splits, you just see 280 batting average, 270, 290, 282, 276.

Like, something like that.

You're allowed to have slumps.

You're allowed to have 0 for 5 days, of course.

But whenever your OPS is over 200 points lower in the second half of the season, you can understand why this offense wasn't as good in the second half of the year.

Bryan Reynolds is one of this franchise's most important players.

He could be one of their top hitters.

And the Pirates really need him to be that guy in 2027.

And that in all of 2027.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine, presented by FanDuel.

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