The Pirates Have 4 Weeks to Prove They’re Serious About 2027

Major League Baseball submitted another proposal to the MLBPA on Tuesday, which was quickly rebuked by the players union.

What was proposed was pretty quickly shut down and we're not going to get too into the nitty gritty of it.

The biggest takeaway from it was the league proposed having the proposed salary cap and floor be postponed to twenty twenty eight.

it would not be implemented with the ratification of a new CBA.

And for some, maybe this came as a surprise.

I always thought there was going to be some grace period, but really no floor for twenty twenty seven is the big takeaway here.

Because it means the pirates probably aren't getting help for twenty twenty seven.

They can't take a leap of faith in November just hoping that there is going to be revenue sharing.

And that's really important because they need to get their shopping this offseason done fast because history shows the longer they wait, the worse the results are.

Good morning and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

I want to take a look at last offseason.

which was a really good winter.

The Pirates came in knowing they needed some offense help, they needed to bolster the team, and they made two pretty significant additions.

The Brandon Lowe trade, which also yielded Mason Montgomery and Jake Mangum, of course, but for simplicity's sake, I'll be referring to it as the Brandon Lowe trade, and the Ryan O'Hearn signing.

They also, earlier in December, signed Gregory Soto.

That was a good signing.

The Lowe trade was outstanding.

The O'Hearn signing was a good signing.

O'Hearn was officially announced in January, but the two sides agreed to the contract in December.

They made those three significant moves in the first half of the offseason, before the new year.

I think those are three big moves.

And then February rolled around.

And they signed José Urquidy and Marcell Ozuna.

Ozuna is probably the second worst signing in franchise history behind Operation Shutdown and Urquidy.

I didn't hate the shot as just like a depth signing, but it didn't work out.

And that really is the history of the Pirates.

making signings after February.

In the Ben Cherington era, the Pirates have signed fifteen players to major league contracts between February first and opening day.

We're not going to look at they signed a major league free agent in May or June, and we're also not going to look at trades.

You know what trades happen during spring training?

It's usually trading one fringe player for either a low-level prospect or your fringe player.

Like, it's Tyler Callihan for Kyle Nicolas-type trades.

I'm not going to fault any team for making those types of moves, whatever.

A free agent signing is different.

A free agent signing is committing real dollars and a guaranteed roster spot to someone who wasn't on your team.

They have signed fifteen players in the Ben Cherington era to major league contracts.

Thirteen of them fully guaranteed.

Two of them split contracts.

That'd be JT Riddle in twenty twenty and Josh Fleming in twenty twenty four of those fifteen players.

they spent over forty million dollars to sign them.

That is a pretty significant chunk of change.

Of those fifteen players, of which they spent forty point five million dollars, they yielded zero point seven war, according to baseball reference.

On average, those signings amounted to adding zero point one war to the team.

Only one player out of those fifteen was worth one full war, and that was Tyler Anderson in twenty twenty one.

As much as we complained or the Internet complaint, I should say, I shouldn't say we about Tommy Pham in twenty twenty five.

Or Michael A.

Taylor in twenty twenty four.

Those guys were tied for second for the most war.

Zero point nine.

Tommy Pham was the second best signing they made after February.

Now, why is that important?

Because this winter.

I imagine whenever this new CBA is agreed to, I would consider myself an optimist in thinking that there is going to be some form of baseball in April.

I don't know a single soul who is optimistic enough who thinks this CBA will be agreed to before there is a lockout or things are back to normal in December or January.

I think you have to be a real optimist.

to look at business as usual in January.

And probably even business as usual in February.

So it's a tough go.

The Pirates have not had a good track record of signing players after February.

So that means, okay, you've got to make moves in November.

The Pirates have not had a good track record of making moves in November.

I'm going to ignore procedural moves.

Players being granted their free agency, players being released, players being claimed off waivers, players being traded for cash considerations.

Those moves can happen at any point.

I'm looking at like what's a real honest to goodness transaction that happened in November.

And in twenty twenty one, the Pirates made a flurry moves.

They traded Jacob Stallings.

They signed Yoshi Tsutsugo.

They signed José Quintana.

And yes, I'm going to look at December one here where they signed Roberto Pérez on the last day before the lockout was instituted.

Twenty twenty two made a couple moves.

They acquired Ji-Man Choi from the Rays.

That was a case of the Rays having a roster crunch at a deadline across the league.

The Pirates picking up a good baseball player.

Later that month, they traded Kevin Newman for Dauri Moreta.

Again, another good baseball move.

Technically, that move was made after another roster crunch deadline, but they were basically at the one-inch line.

Deadlines facilitated two good additions.

And then later that month, they signed Carlos Santana.

A really good signing, in my opinion.

That was the type of move that team needed to make at that time.

Those were the last times the Pirates made real transactions in November.

They made no moves in twenty twenty three.

They made no moves in twenty twenty five.

Twenty twenty four.

A trade of cash considerations for Peter Strzelecki, who did not pitch for the Pirates.

They did not add in November.

And it's going to be a really important month here.

We've got four weeks until the lockout happens.

And the Pirates have areas that they need to address, and they don't have a good track record of signing players after February, so they probably need to move fast.

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If the Pirates do make moves this winter, it is going to be almost certainly increasing what would be a projected

highest payroll in team history.

Going by MLB Spreadsheets, the Pirates' final payroll last year was just north of a hundred seven million dollars.

Going into this winter, it was just north of a hundred million.

They don't really have a lot of wiggle room.

Their opening day payroll will probably be the largest it's ever been, unless they truly make no transactions and do nothing to improve this team.

And that just simply isn't an option.

That cannot be an option.

This is a team that even if you view Brandon Lowe as good as gone, You need to still acquire an infielder.

You still need to acquire a lefty reliever.

You still need to get another right-handed bat so left-handed starting pitchers don't eat you up for lunch.

There are holes on this team that are all achievable.

The shopping list isn't, okay, they need a number one starter, a number two starter, a number four starter, a closer, a setup man, two outfielders, three infielders.

No, like it's not that far away.

It does need supplemented though.

They still need to improve, which I think some people were under the assumption that at one point that if there was a cap and floor instituted, that would mean,

well, the pirates would have to get to it in twenty twenty seven.

That's not the case.

At least not according to this latest proposal from ownership.

And honestly, I was writing something for Book Rule Bucs, which will be releasing here.

Very soon, but it was about.

the payroll and how the pirates need to spend.

And I wrote, I now need to amend it, but I wrote that being able to add to the payroll, if the pirates were to add to payroll in November, that would mean at least how I interpreted

one of two things.

One, that Bob Nutting is unequivocally in on twenty twenty seven or B, he at least has belief that this lockout is going to yield what the owners want, that there will be better revenue sharing,

that there will be a cap and a floor.

Betting that it will happen, so let's spend money and if it doesn't happen, well, at least we're going to be in a position to win in twenty twenty seven.

If they didn't spend money, I viewed it as either A, just viewing twenty twenty seven as yet another year.

Or B, no vote of confidence that the owners will get what they want here.

The league claimed that they wanted to make sure teams wanted to spend.

And yeah, if I am a Dodger, if I am a Yankee, if I am a Red Sox, it definitely does create different opportunities this winter.

But for the Pirates and these small market teams, they don't have to make a bet.

They don't have to put their money where their mouth is as they're getting ready to go into this lockout.

They still can.

They still should.

This team should still be supplemented.

It should still be added to, but they don't need to because, well, they could just add payroll next winter whenever they have the sure thing.

And if the cap and floor isn't instituted well, that's a shame.

Guess we don't have to spend any money.

This is a very important winter.

I'm going to say that every day, pretty much until the lockout goes into effect.

It's a very short winter.

And yeah, there's going to be a back nine to it, but that back nine is full of hazards and sand traps and a couple alligators to boot.

If the Pirates really want to show they're serious in twenty twenty seven, they need to make moves now.

History dictates they haven't done well with that recently.

History dictates that waiting probably won't yield what they want.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

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We will talk again tomorrow.

All right, that wraps up this episode of North Shore Nine.

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