Pirates Win 13-12, But This Is Why They’re Not a Playoff Team

I'm going to borrow a quote from former Steelers head coach Bill Cowher that I think is simple but a banger.

So what if we won ugly?

It's a good mindset for a head coach.

It's more or less what Don Kelly said after this game on Tuesday.

The Pirates won.

An eventful ballgame.

They probably shouldn't have won.

And while I look at that game, I couldn't help but thinking, this is why this team isn't in a wildcard spot.

This is why they are almost certainly going to fall short of that postseason goal that they set for themselves.

It's a period full stop.

They keep getting in their own way.

And while this is a talented team, there's a reason why they aren't going to be playing in October.

Good morning and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine presented by FanDuel.

My name is Alex Stumpf and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

I'm going to borrow stat here from Luke from the Bucco Ball blog who wrote on Tuesday that this is the first time the Pirates have had postseason odds above 1% in September since 2016.

That is a decade.

It has been a decade since the last time the Pirates have had postseason odds above 1%.

And they came into Tuesday, I believe the number was 1.7%.

It's barely over 1%.

They are not positioned for October.

And this game on Tuesday was a pretty good encapsulation.

Why?

Because you saw the good.

There was a lot of good in that ball game.

I'm going to complain a lot in this episode, just giving you a heads up.

There was a lot of good.

And a lot of it had to do on offense, especially that third inning.

First nine guys up, all gone on base.

And it wasn't extra base hits.

It was singles.

It was walks.

It was moving the chain, not trying to do too much.

It's what coaches preach to little league players, but done at a perfect level at the major league level.

That was what this team needed, a nine-run inning that took 34 minutes and 44 seconds to complete.

Against Logan Webb, a good pitcher.

I know he's not going to be a top five Cy Young finisher again this year, but he has been an all-star three straight years, including this year.

Hardly a slouch.

You're putting together good at-bats against him.

And then the Giants' bullpen just shuts him down.

And it's a bad Giants' bullpen that did it.

Meanwhile, Paul Skenes.

He's got a six-run lead on the mound.

Can't complete five innings.

A lot of misses with his fastball.

And most of them were out of the zone.

But, man, that one, the Devers, that was middle-middle.

There's a reason why that ball went out to straight center.

The bullpen.

Ugly outing.

Yoan Ramirez, who has been taxed to hell and back, looked like it out there.

Luke Weaver, who has not pitched as well with the Pirates as he did with the Mets so far.

Very small sample size.

I get that.

But this has been like two or three outings where I'm looking and I'm like, yeah, this is not exactly great.

He inherited a mess from Evan Sisk, but he had a hard time completing the inning.

The Pirates had a six-run lead.

They blew it.

And if it wasn't for Devers whiffing on a ball that did bounce to first base but was right on line, it was about as easy a one-hopper as a first baseman's going to get.

If he doesn't whiff on that ball game is going to extra innings where the Pirates have already exhausted the best part of their bullpen.

Not exactly a great chance of success there.

It was an ugly win.

It was simply a case of the Giants wanting it less.

And maybe I would be more apathetic to a game like that.

And we would be diving into either Brandon Lowe's four-hit game or what Oneil Cruz's four-hits mean and what those two mean to this lineup.

That would probably be the episode here.

But I can't be apathetic for it because this is the most important baseball game that's been played at PNC Park since the Obama administration.

It's the first, it's the closest thing the Pirates have played to a meaningful baseball game in September since 2016.

And honestly, it's not that meaningful.

It was one, I believe the number was 1.7% playoff odds going into the day.

Maybe it's 2% whatever we wake up tomorrow.

Because the Padres lost.

Because the Padres lost.

But no, this is just an ugly game.

It was a win.

But it doesn't, and it'll help those meager postseason odds.

But it doesn't give you a better feeling about this team.

A team that has not put together long winning streaks.

This team has not won three series in a row all season.

Three series in a row is a hot stretch.

I will admit that, but it's what good teams are supposed to do.

Do you know what the postseason is?

It's crowning a champion after that team won three series in a row.

The Pirates haven't done it all year.

So whenever they could say, the goal is to make the postseason period full stop.

They haven't shown for like a week and a half stretch all year that they could do it.

That's why these games in September don't matter.

Except for the fact, like I said, this was the closest thing to a meaningful September game they have played in a decade.

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I'm looking at Paul Skeynes.

He's a big part of this.

Not being able to go five against that lineup.

I'm comfortable admitting I only knew three players.

I knew Raphael Devers.

I knew Bryce Eldridge.

I knew Jung-Hoo Lee.

There are five, six guys.

I create a players.

You're 20 years into fantasy dynasty mode.

I never heard of them.

Some of them are young.

Some of them had fine OPSs I get.

But like, I like to think I know ball to a certain level.

I at least pay attention to ball.

One of my best friends is a beat reporter who covers the Giants.

I think I would know this team.

I didn't know this team.

And this Pirates staff walked eight of them.

You don't walk eight hitters and win the game that often.

Skeynes did not pitch well.

He got better as the night went on.

He was able to find mechanics a little better, but still wasn't able to finish five.

That bullpen mess was extrapolated by him not being able to go deep into the game.

The Pirates are six and 13 in his last 19 starts.

Had they been just 500, this team would be what?

Two games out of a wild card spot right now?

And these games in September would actually for real matter and not just technically barely matter?

It's a lot to put on just one guy.

There are plenty of issues with this team.

Offense in the second half has been pretty stagnant Tuesday, notwithstanding.

The bullpen had issues all year.

The defense has had issues all year.

This is a team that has the talent to do something really good.

But they haven't been able to realize it.

And that is the frustrating part.

It's not just the period, full stop, postseason goal that's very likely not going to be reached.

It's that they should have.

I can't think of too many times whenever I've walked into a clubhouse after a walk-off win, where it was that quiet, that it was just that got through it.

And it was a long night.

I get it.

But it's still a win.

You're supposed to still celebrate.

It was, any celebration was pretty much wrapped up by the time media got in there.

Who cares if we won ugly?

Bill Cower.

Well, whenever you're trying to build, and whenever you're trying to show that next year you can be competitive, you should care.

Not everyone is going to be, squeaky, but this was the most impactful game the Pirates have played in September in a decade.

And, boy, do they look like a team that hasn't played a meaningful September game in a decade.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine, presented by FanDuel.

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Thank you so much for listening.

We'll talk again tomorrow.

All right.

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