The Pirates Prospects FanGraphs (Eric Longenhagen) Is Buying Right Now

Yo. Welcome to North Shore Nine Podcast presented by FanDuel. I'm your host, Anthony DiNardo. With me, we've got Eric Langehagen from FanGraphs. We're here live at Camelback, right, from the Arizona Fall League, right before the Desert Dogs about to play. But yeah, you're here. you're always, I feel like this is, of course, this is home, but this is like your second home from home, I feel like in October, November.

Yeah, it's usually when the weather turns and it feels like this and it just, it does feel like dipping in a warm bath and watching baseball for 10 hours. Some of these Saturdays when we have the triple headers and yeah, there's definitely like a feeling of security and homecoming every time there's quality. It's just so relaxed and quiet. There's never more than like a couple hundred people around.

And then, yeah, it's a relaxed place to watch guys like tool it out for six weeks and see apples to apples how like mostly mature players look against one another.

Right. Yeah, I know. it's our second year out here and exactly what you say. I love the environment here. It's very refreshing. It's nice. It's like baseball in its purest form, right?

Yeah, it's like watching baseball like in the library, but with like copyright claim music that I'm sure will be scrubbed in post from this interview.

Right. Well, one thing I want to talk about, you wrote about a lot of guys here and such.

Now that you've been seeing them for like almost a month now, I guess.

Is there any Pirates player that maybe has changed your tune that you want to see?

Well, I think like, I think Johnny Severino, the pilot light is still on.

I think he's hit like a buck 25 out here through three weeks.

But just after the season he had, I know Greensboro plays the way it does, but like, the guy hits like 30 homers and he has to be on my target list here for the six-week period to see if stuff has changed.

Right.

He's swinging in the same way a lot of the Pirates hitters swing with that open stride where he's looking to do as much pull-side damage as he can.

And I think it's working well enough that he's a prospect again.

We're at, I think last the cycle was more like, hey, this guy used to be important.

They traded for him and then he struck out like 30% of the time and didn't hit last year.

And that's why 26 was a different story for him.

So he's definitely alive back on the radar as far as prospects are concerned.

Easton Carmichael's one where coming in to the season, it was like, this is a super high floor backup catcher.

And then the season he had, it was better than that too, where, he's going to have like 75% contact rate.

If he's going to have like a 140X ISO and play really good defense, which he does, that's like a top 40 catcher in baseball.

Okay.

So, it's tough to evaluate catchers here because the season is so long.

They're often only catching twice a week here because there are three catchers on the roster.

I know, we're willing to catch them one time, which is luckily tonight.

And then they're catching mostly guys who they've never worked with before.

And so there have been catchers like Bush supposedly notoriously look like not good in this league.

It can be hard to evaluate a catcher here.

And Carmichael, at least in my looks, has just been steady.

Like, this guy's fine.

But statistically, better than just the backup catcher.

I think that, like, he's, among the position players in this league, he's one of the more sure things that could be a big leaguer just because of inventory of that position across the big leagues.

Like, you need guys who can catch.

Teams go through them like tissue paper.

Carmichael, I think, is there.

And Wyatt Sanford's the other one where, we have a pretty big grade on him during the year.

My running partner, Brendan Golowski, who used to scout for the Pirates, was out here for a week at the beginning of the slate.

And Sanford's data profile did such a 180 this year to go from, like, contact-oriented guy to lots of strikeouts and lots of power before he got hurt.

And seeing him here was important to try to, like, suss out which of those two guys is the real player.

Sure.

And I'm still getting a feel for how much I think he's actually going to hit.

Whereas Brendan left his week here pretty convinced that this was a good player, that, like, there's enough power and enough speed and enough defense that swinging this stuff is fine where it is.

And, I think that we had Sanford just, like, outside the top 100 throughout the season and still on that fringe for me.

And Brendan is a little bit more in, at this time.

Yeah, it's, like, the crux of their position player group here, basically.

And then, like, obviously, Brandon Kane is an interesting version guy.

And Michael Walsh, I think, is going to be a big-leaguer reliever.

It's just about, like, can he throw enough strikes to stay in a bullpen in perpetuity?

He's the stuff to be a big-leaguer for sure.

I would call, like, a cutter and a slurve.

Slurve is really good.

There's, like, a little bit of a kick change in there, I would say.

It's just about strikes.

It's, like, can you throw your secondary stuff for strikes enough to stay in the bullpen and rather than just be an up-down guy?

And, I think that's, like, the bulk of their group here.

It's, like, it's an okay group, I think.

Yeah, no, I think that's fair.

Let's start with Wyatt Sanford because I think he, of course, is, like, well, that's the headliner here.

And with you, which I think a lot of people, like, coming in a glove guy contact that you mentioned, but this year he had, you had some thoughts and changes on him, what he could be.

Has there been anything in the fall league that you've seen that you might see that, like, hey, this is sustainable, what he's doing?

Well, he's definitely physically much stronger than when he was drafted.

Like, when he was an amateur, he was a skinny kid.

Like, it was one of those players where you're not sure how he's going to trend physically and if there's ever going to be meaningful power.

And now, like, how guys come into that power, I want to talk to Sanford post-game, maybe not today, but, like, at a certain point and just be like, hey, like, have you changed the bat you're using?

Like, that seems like a pretty popular change, but no, like, Sanford is definitely more muscular and stronger than he was when he was drafted.

And so when you look at the data, the exit below data, and you say, okay, this is improved, is what my eyes are telling me, reinforcing that.

And with him, yeah, I think it is.

And he's done so without losing so much on defense that he's no longer a shortstop, which is always, like, the risk when you get some of these guys in the weight room is that they're going to lose mobility and suffer defensively.

And in Sanford's case, I don't think that's happened.

Like, he's still a good defensive shortstop.

Now he just has power, too, and, the contact piece of it is the one where, I don't know yet, so bad during the stretch that he's healthy during the regular season.

And they're definitely, like, the Colson Montgomerys of the world, like, they hit for enough power that it can be okay.

It can be a 30-hole or shortstop who strikes out that much and plays good defense.

And, you get to be the nine-hole hitter on a playoff team, but, maybe that's what Sanford is destined for.

But, yeah, we're going to see.

But I'm curious to talk to him and say, like, what precipitated this change from 2025 to 2026, if it is indeed a real change?

Because, like, again, the data sample from the regular season was smaller just because he got hurt.

Sure.

No, good stuff.

You did talk about Ethan Carmichael.

He was in that group that could be a dude type thing.

we talked about the defense.

How elite do you think his defense is and could be?

I think it's really good.

I think that, when you're talking about, like, the Austin Hedges of the world and the Patrick Bailey's of the world.

Henry Davis is, of course.

Henry Davis.

Right.

Like, well, Henry Davis can do some of the stuff well.

Yeah.

But those guys tend to prove it at the big league level.

There's just something about big league stuff and, like, catching every day and the quality of big league stuff that you have to frame and block.

It's just different than what you're doing at high A and double A.

So, it's hard to say that he can be that good where Austin Hedges has done, essentially nothing offensively for 10 years.

But he's still coveted because of how important catching defense is.

But the guys who look like Ethan Carmichael does, that's where those types of players come from.

So, I'm really excited about what he's able to do defensively.

He's more than just fine back there.

Like, it is an impact defender where if you weren't doing anything offensively, you'd still probably be a big league backup.

But there's enough going on offensively that I think, yeah, like, you might be a five bat with four power.

And if you're a six defender, a catcher, and doing that on offense, then, yeah, you're, like, you're a top 30, top 40 catcher.

Yeah.

And that's one of my follow-up here.

like, how good does the bat, or how weak does the bat have to be that it can still be, like, you're, in the major leagues for quite a bit.

Yeah.

I think the league average WRC plus a catcher is always right around, like, 90, like, 92 area.

So, if you can hold somewhere in there, if you're playing really good defense, then, yeah, you're right in the middle of that player group.

And that's, like, especially a catcher where so many teams are playing multiple guys regularly.

The days of, like, one catcher back there for 130 games is just over.

That's done.

Except for Williams and Ferris and some of these guys.

Pardon me.

But, yeah, like, I think that the way, if we're, like, looking at the bell curve of, like, catchers, and over here are your, like, Adleys and, Posys and guys who do want playing every day,

just, like, the thicker group in the middle where guys, a left-handed version and a right-handed version, and they mix and match, like, either in-game or day-to-day.

Like, basically Carmichael, absolutely, could be one of those guys where you're really happy putting him in positions to succeed, where one of your guys is left-handed or got any Rodriguez around, maybe with three catchers, and,

but, yeah, I think that, but where they drafted Carmichael a year and a half later, it's going really great.

Yeah.

Awesome.

Xander Reef, about being drafted, right?

He was certainly an interesting prospect.

Hasn't really had success, but I think there's parts, you mentioned, of his game that is intriguing.

Yeah, the big thing is, like, the control aspect of it.

Obviously, the Arizona Fall League, we haven't really been seeing that come along, but, again, the bits you've been seeing, is there something that makes you feel that he could stick to be a starter, or is this something where it's a reliever?

No, I'm pretty concerned about him.

In two looks out here, like, it's been pretty bad.

He's just never developed any semblance of command whatsoever.

I was big on Xander as a high school prospect because, hey, we're all learning about low release heights, and this guy's got that, like, Chris Sale thing going on, right?

Sorry, guys.

Tanner Houck was good for a second, right?

Like, he looked like that.

But injuries and just completely lack of control, like, it's pretty unplayable control.

So, as a starter, I think that's a pipe dream.

As a reliever, maybe.

You've got to have, like, way bigger stuff, I feel like.

Welcome to today's game.

To succeed in a relief.

To succeed in a relief.

I think he's a lot of fringe for me at this point.

Hasn't he been?

Hasn't he been?

Yeah.

Okay.

I want to talk to you a little bit about Derek Curiel.

So, the Pirates drafted him five overall, this upcoming draft.

I think there's a lot of mix on the reaction between fans and, writers or whatever.

What's your take on Curiel, especially at number five?

Yeah.

I like Curiel.

I was a little lower than five.

I can see how in any draft, this is what happens.

It's like the team's run for safety with our policy.

They feel pretty good about it.

Curiel's definitely back up.

You also kindly added a little spectator.

Yeah, I think so.

He runs really well.

He doesn't have the best deal for center field.

He split time there.

He's an underclassman.

It's okay to have a longer runway for center field.

Yeah, I thought it was a little bit of a reason.

Let's see how strong he looks coming in for spring training.

He's a wiry, skinny guy.

He was like an old-school leadoff hitter skill set.

But there are plenty of players who have that skill set as a foundation of their game.

And then they get into their mid-20s and they get into their mid-20s and she's dedicated to their fitness.

They're not allowed inside the ballpark.

I think it's wrong.

Spencer Ruiz wants like pretty big and, yeah, he's a first baseman and left fielder who just makes contact and walks.

Now he's like a pretty physical guy.

There's a little bit more in there.

So, yeah, I think I understood why they did it.

It wasn't the way I would have thought about doing it.

I thought some of the higher upside guys who were there, whoever, it wasn't a Lombard guy, but.

Okay.

All right.

I was on a Lombard.

Everyone tell me no.

Lombard is just like the amount of swinging and missing that was on was really terrifying.

And, again, like Bryce Eldridge, he exists and Munitaka Murakami exists and some of these guys with like can have a 65% contact rate or whatever it is and still thrive.

How sustainable it is, I don't know.

Like, let's see another year of Murakami.

Let's see more Bryce Eldridge, et cetera.

But, yeah, Jacob Lombard was like way down in that area against his school arms.

So, I was terrified of Jacob Lombard.

Booth was the one where it was a little sexier, more intriguing.

Some of Eric Booth's swings, you go like, oh, that looked like Barry Bonds' swing.

Now, I'm not saying that he's going to do that.

That's what I heard.

The way his swing looked sometimes, I was just like, oh, like if I'm going to compare the way that looked to anybody, it's Barry Bonds.

But, obviously, like, if you think of a guy who's Barry Bonds, he's not going to be seventh or wherever the Orioles drafted him.

But, yeah, Curiel, like, he's fine.

It was inoffensive to me, but also not really very exciting.

Right.

Yeah.

I feel like the majority felt, like, he'll probably, it's safe to say, like, the four is he'll be a major leaguer.

There's something there that he'll be there.

It's just maybe the feeling's not so high.

Yeah, and again, like, a lot of these players, if we look at, the Otto Lopez's of the world, like, there's some of these guys who you think, ah, he's just a punch and Judy guy.

And then you look up and he's had a bunch of three win seasons, so much of it is about, if you're not going to have power, contact piece and the defensive piece both have to be big parts of what you're doing.

And in Curiel's case, I'm pretty sure the contact piece will be.

And then the defense part of it, we have to see.

But, yeah, like, I think he's going to hit.

I think he's going to make an impact with his legs.

He's definitely going to do really well in the mid-miners.

And once he gets to Altoona is when we're going to start to see, okay, like, how much power does this guy really have?

But, yeah, when you're 21, 22 years old, some of these guys show up to camp after a couple months away, and, they're 20, 30 pounds heavier.

We're going to see Zyre Hope.

He's getting loose in one of these groups right next to us.

Like, he was 193 pounds at the Combine, and 18 months later, he was 230 pounds.

And not all of it's good, but, like, it doesn't come – it's not an accident that happened.

Like, the Dodgers did that.

Zyre did that.

Change to who he was meaningfully as a player over the course of, like, 18 months.

It's time to meet the starting lineups.

Anything like that is possible.

Yeah.

Okay.

Last question, then.

Who's maybe a Pirates prospect that maybe not many fans know about or talk about that you think are undervalued and they should be talking more about?

Well, I think at this point, people are talking about Ronald Navarro.

Batting second, number 27, the catcher from Tampa Bay.

I'll say this.

The average man probably still doesn't know much about him, but – He's the one where, if I'm reaching for a name there, off – at least, like, 12 months ago, for sure, was, like, way off the radar.

You've probably seen the DSL.

He was throwing his heart.

He was fastball.

I think it did.

But it's one of those fastballs where it looks like an elite left-handed fastball.

It's the type of pitch that you have it in the bullpen, and that's all you do.

Batting sixth, number 25.

He's probably going to be a reliever.

Like, he was the first one.

But when your arm is that fast and your fastball is that explosive, I wouldn't give up on the possibility of him.

Yeah, it is one of those where it's a monster, like, mid-upper 90s, with a insane ride.

You just come out of the bullpen and throw that pitch.

And would be some factually young, you know.

Batting ninth, number four.

Second baseman.

Like, a real legit-laden-made weapon.

And because of the 40-man timeline for Latin American players, they could be in the mixture of 40-man spots.

Gosh, I don't know what his top 40-man time is, but, like, might be after 2027 already.

Introducing the Spartans for the most desert dogs.

That's my man, John Schubacher.

That's a good one.

Hiding off numbers at the second baseman.

Some of the guys in the past video, what was the most important stuff, haven't been very good.

Yeah.

Number 27.

There's a chance that, three years, he's just, like, one of the best believers on the baseball.

Shortstop.

He's at 97, but 20 is just the first place.

There are a great team fastballs that do that.

It's like, Josh Hader's fastball.

Yeah.

Batting fourth.

Okay.

That's great stuff.

Well, yeah.

Well, that's pretty much all we had after you right now.

Again, Eric, I'm hanging with you.

You better find your stuff at.

You go to FanGraphs.

You've got free memberships at FanGraphs.

Yeah.

21-year-old website now.

FanGraphs.

Yeah.

No, I highly recommend FanGraphs.

Great site.

Actually get the membership.

Well worth it, too.

But, yeah.

No, I appreciate it.

Again, thanks for checking out North Shore Nine.

We'll be watching the game now and having our talk afterwards.

But we'll be back.

Subscribe.

We'll talk to you later.

Bye-bye.

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