◆NEWSPirates make a roster move ahead of the series◆ROSTERClaimed LF Akil Baddoo off waivers from Milwaukee Brewers◆STATPaul Skenes ranks 4th in the NL in strikeouts (200)◆NEWSPirates checking in on bullpen help◆ROSTERSeattle Mariners claimed RHP Isaac Mattson off waivers from Pittsburgh Pirates◆STATNick Gonzales ranks 4th in the NL in batting average (.303)◆ROSTERActivated RHP Mitch Keller from the 60-day injured list◆ROSTERActivated C Endy Rodríguez from the 60-day injured list
◆NEWSPirates make a roster move ahead of the series◆ROSTERClaimed LF Akil Baddoo off waivers from Milwaukee Brewers◆STATPaul Skenes ranks 4th in the NL in strikeouts (200)◆NEWSPirates checking in on bullpen help◆ROSTERSeattle Mariners claimed RHP Isaac Mattson off waivers from Pittsburgh Pirates◆STATNick Gonzales ranks 4th in the NL in batting average (.303)◆ROSTERActivated RHP Mitch Keller from the 60-day injured list◆ROSTERActivated C Endy Rodríguez from the 60-day injured list
Mitch Keller says he’s healthy and expects a normal offseason after a frustrating 2026, but the Pirates still have a major decision to make. Keller is due $18.4 million next season, and while that’s reasonable value for a durable mid-rotation starter, Pittsburgh may need that money elsewhere. Jim Rosati breaks down whether the Pirates should keep Keller, move the contract to create payroll flexibility, and what his future means for a rotation built around Paul Skenes.
Watch or listen to the full Bucco Brew now.
Comments· 0
The Debate
Should the Pirates trade Mitch Keller this offseason even if it's a pure salary dump?
From Jim Rosati’s take on the show
No comments yet — be the first to weigh in.
With Jim Rosati.
Chapters
Key takeaways
1
Keller's 5.29 ERA over 115 innings is a one-year blip; project him off the four-year body of work, which means a low-4s ERA and 30-plus starts in 2027.
Jim Rosati
2
Keller is worth his $18.4M, but the Pirates should still move him this offseason because that money does more good allocated elsewhere, even if it means a pure salary dump with a prospect attached.
Jim Rosati
3
Offering Lowe the $23.15M qualifying offer is the easiest decision Cherington has, but the Pirates get zero credit for offering. If Lowe signs elsewhere, they failed.
Jim Rosati
4
The Brewers and Rays wouldn't sign a 32-year-old Lowe to three-plus years, but they don't have to. The Pirates have no Lowe replacement anywhere in the organization, so they must do everything to bring him back.
Jim Rosati
5
Someone will give Lowe a fourth year and 4-for-$100M is in play. If the deal makes sense for 2027 with Skenes, Griffin and Cruz, let the 2030 Pirates worry about 2030.
What's going on, everybody? Good morning. Welcome to the North Shore Nine podcast presented by FanDuel. This is Bucco Brew powered by Defer Coffee and Tea.
Jim Rosati
I am Jim Rosati. Not joining me this morning, apparently, is Anthony DiNardo. I was joking with him in Arizona just yesterday or the day before that I don't think he understood time zones.
Jim Rosati
So we're back in the eastern time zone after being three hours behind for a few days. I don't know if DiNardo hasn't figured that out yet.
Jim Rosati
I don't know if he realizes that when he traveled back home, he went, forward in time three hours because it's now 11 minutes after 7 a.m., which is the start of this show.
Jim Rosati
And there's still no signs of DiNardo. He's not answering his phone. So I was just like, you know what?
Jim Rosati
We're going to start this thing. If DiNardo wakes up and joins at any point, he's more than welcome to.
Jim Rosati
But, yeah, guys, I don't know if I've heard of a guy who doesn't understand time zones as much as DiNardo.
Jim Rosati
Anyways, we're back. We're back. So if you're in the chat, Bucko Mike, I see you. I appreciate you in here.
Jim Rosati
Feel free to drop in your thoughts on the show. Right now I'm going solo. So I'm solo for now.
Jim Rosati
We've got some things to discuss today. If I said you've got you've got things to say on the topics we're talking about, drop them in the chat.
Jim Rosati
We'll make you guys part of the show this morning. But a couple of things I wanted to discuss today.
Jim Rosati
One, Aiden Sapansky of MLB.com brought up, was able to talk to Mitch Keller a little bit and got some quotes from him, talked about how his season went, talked about his injury, talked about just how he felt
Jim Rosati
and what his plan is for the offseason and going in the next year.
Jim Rosati
So I want to talk about Mitch Keller a little bit. Obviously, a pretty hot topic for discussion where he's someone the Pirates need to decide on what exactly to do with this offseason.
Jim Rosati
So we'll get into that. We're approaching the obviously the end of the season.
Jim Rosati
The World Series is, the two games in. The Brewers have won two games.
Jim Rosati
What that means is the offseason is about to start. Right. So Brandon Lowe is about to become a free agent.
Jim Rosati
Obviously, the Pirates can offer a qualifying offer there where they where they it's twenty three point one five million dollars is the qualifying offer this year.
Jim Rosati
I think it's pretty much a no brainer to go ahead and offer that to him.
Jim Rosati
But I want to talk about just the bigger picture with Brandon Lowe and then we'll wrap things up with really just like can Ben Cherington repeat what he did last offseason?
Jim Rosati
Because I think he had a pretty good offseason last year. It was just not enough. Right.
Jim Rosati
But I think if he's able to do another offseason this year, similar to what he did last year, maybe minus the Marcell Ozuna signing, this team can maybe get enough to push themselves over the edge.
Jim Rosati
So let's start off. Let's start off. What's up, Ethan?
Jim Rosati
Ethan's wife is making him a bacon, egg and cheese. Love that. Love that, Ethan.
Jim Rosati
I actually had a bacon, egg and cheese croissant one morning when I was down in Arizona. It was it was delicious.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Mike says DiNardo probably couldn't turn his phone on. Probably. That makes sense.
Jim Rosati
Yellow beard. Sometimes you got to go solo. Yeah. I don't know what's up with him. I don't know.
Jim Rosati
It's Bucko Mike says time zones and technology. Denardi struggles.
Jim Rosati
Yeah, there was there was actually our Arizona Fall League recap video if you haven't checked those out.
Jim Rosati
But there was one of them where he the one that he uploaded. I was like, hey, make sure it goes live at, 8 a.m.
Jim Rosati
Eastern time. And he posted it for 8 a.m.
Jim Rosati
Arizona time. So it didn't it wasn't in there until 11 a.m.
Jim Rosati
Eastern time. So when I woke up, two hours before him, I had to just post it immediately.
Jim Rosati
Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. The time zone thing. He's just not good with them. Not good with them.
Jim Rosati
So who knows what's going on here. But yeah, let's talk about this.
Jim Rosati
So let's start with Mitch Keller. Again, Aiden Stepanski, MLB dot com. Got a chance to talk to him.
Jim Rosati
If you haven't read that article, make sure you do. It's linked down in the in the description there.
Jim Rosati
Couple lines from Mitch Keller. I just want to point out before we get into this.
Jim Rosati
Mitch Keller said that, first off, he's healthy right now, didn't undergo any procedures, expected to begin throwing again at the end of October, which is pretty much now he expects to have a normal offseason.
Jim Rosati
He mentioned that it was a weird year. Honestly, I didn't really feel like myself or feel 100 percent the whole year.
Jim Rosati
So I was trying just I was just not trying to be too hard on myself just because I didn't feel like myself or the best I could.
Jim Rosati
Goes on to say, I think there was definitely some positives throughout the year, early in the year, and then just some learning things to go through health wise and stuff hindered my ability to be the best I could be out there.
Jim Rosati
So I'm just looking forward to next year being 100 percent healthy and just being on track.
Jim Rosati
So I guess my question for you guys and the question that I'm going to try to try to answer here, right, is does the injury that, Keller sustained, does it does it change the way you judge his 2026 season at all?
Jim Rosati
Right. you look at what he's done in the past in 2023, pitched 194 innings, 4.21 earned run average, 2024, 178 innings, 4.25 ERA, 2025, 176 innings, 4.19 ERA.
Jim Rosati
So he's like covering right in that 4.2 ERA territory for multiple years now pitching, a lot of innings.
Jim Rosati
And then this year, right, that jumps up to 5.29 ERA over 115 innings.
Jim Rosati
So strikeout rate dropped, right?
Jim Rosati
he struck out 210 people in 2023 strikeout rate just continued to drop every single year.
Jim Rosati
This year, it was its lowest that it had ever been, in his 115 innings of work.
Jim Rosati
He struck out 89 batters.
Jim Rosati
That's good for a strikeout percentage of 17.7 percent.
Jim Rosati
That's the lowest of his career.
Jim Rosati
And you look over the last three years, right?
Jim Rosati
It peaked in 2023 at 25.5 percent, dropped to 21.5, dropped to 20.
Jim Rosati
Like I said, now dropped to 17.7.
Jim Rosati
So the strikeout rate really went down.
Jim Rosati
The walk rate also was the highest it's been since 2022.
Jim Rosati
Yeah, with the injury and, it's a real thing, right?
Jim Rosati
Like would, if this was bothering him and he just didn't feel right the whole year, I'm not necessarily saying that you can forgive him, right?
Jim Rosati
Because the Pirates desperately could have used a healthy and productive Mitch Keller this year.
Jim Rosati
But I think Mitch Keller has shown over the course of a sustained period of time, and we're talking four years now, right?
Jim Rosati
you look at his numbers, and from 2022 to 2025, that's a four-year span, he was a pretty good starting pitcher, right?
Jim Rosati
He's ranging from pretty good to average.
Jim Rosati
And when you're an average starting pitcher in terms of results and you're throwing 175-plus innings, that's an extremely valuable pitcher to any team over the course of a 162-game season.
Jim Rosati
So I guess my question to you guys, again, is does 2026 change the way you view Mitch Keller?
Jim Rosati
Because for me, I'm willing to chalk it up as just like a one-year thing, right?
Jim Rosati
Now, if he does get in 2027, then my opinion of Mitch Keller changes a lot.
Jim Rosati
But I think right now, if you're trying to reasonably project what a 2027 season looks like for Mitch Keller, I think you have to more so look at the four, the overall body of work.
Jim Rosati
What were the last five years like for Mitch Keller?
Jim Rosati
And the last five years of Mitch Keller have shown you that he can pitch a lot of innings.
Jim Rosati
He can be average, an average starting pitcher, ERA in the low fours.
Jim Rosati
And so I think if you're looking to see, like, what can he provide you in 2027, like, that's my expectation.
Jim Rosati
I don't think my expectation on who Mitch Keller is as a pitcher has changed much just because of last year.
Jim Rosati
So I'd like to say, I'd like your thoughts on there.
Jim Rosati
Like, do you view Mitch Keller any different right now than you did at the beginning of the season?
Jim Rosati
Like, does that 5.29 ERA over 115 innings in a season where he ended on the IL, is he a different guy now than he was in previous years?
Jim Rosati
So a couple comments here.
Jim Rosati
Phoenix Wayne, what would the Brewers do with Keller?
Jim Rosati
That's a good question because we're going to get to later in the show, like, what would the Brewers do with Brandon Lowe?
Jim Rosati
What would the Brewers do with Keller?
Jim Rosati
Man, I don't know.
Jim Rosati
I'll say this.
Jim Rosati
The Brewers may have never extended Keller to begin with.
Jim Rosati
You look at this Brewers team right now and how it's built.
Jim Rosati
None of these starting pitchers are guys that are, how old is Mitch Keller now?
Jim Rosati
30 years old.
Jim Rosati
You look at this Milwaukee Brewers staff, 24-year-old Misiorowski, 24-year-old Henderson, 27-year-old Gasser.
Jim Rosati
Yeah.
Jim Rosati
I don't know if the Brewers extend Mitch Keller to begin with.
Jim Rosati
the one guy on this team that they had who they extended was Brandon Woodruff, right?
Jim Rosati
And he was just hurt pretty much the entire year.
Jim Rosati
He only started nine games this season.
Jim Rosati
Had some pretty good results.
Jim Rosati
But they also, that wasn't really a long-term deal either.
Jim Rosati
They've been giving him these one-year deals, the last couple seasons.
Jim Rosati
he had that 2024 year where he was hurt.
Jim Rosati
They signed him to a two-year deal.
Jim Rosati
2026 comes back on that one-year deal.
Jim Rosati
He was productive when he was healthy, but he's only given them, what, 32 starts over the last four seasons?
Jim Rosati
So he hasn't really given them a whole lot of value.
Jim Rosati
So, yeah, I think that – I don't know if the Brewers would still be – I don't know if the Brewers would still have Keller.
Jim Rosati
I think the Brewers maybe would have traded Mitch Keller four years ago.
Jim Rosati
Yellowbeard says, I really don't know what you'd do with Keller.
Jim Rosati
Salary dump for lottery tickets.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Mike, Keller is a salary dump.
Jim Rosati
He also says, I think his body is starting to break down.
Jim Rosati
Yellowbeard, if he hasn't made the jump to all-star selection by age 29 to 30, he likely will never get it.
Jim Rosati
Now, to be completely fair to Mitch Keller, he was an all-star, right?
Jim Rosati
He did make an all-star.
Jim Rosati
He did make one all-star game in – what year was that he made the all-star game?
Jim Rosati
2023.
Jim Rosati
he was a three-war pitcher that year, went 13-9, 4.21 ERA.
Jim Rosati
Had a hell of a first start to that season.
Jim Rosati
So, like, he did make one all-star game, which is saying something.
Jim Rosati
Yeah, Ethan says, Woodruff and Burns.
Jim Rosati
Burns, they traded, right?
Jim Rosati
Burns, they traded.
Jim Rosati
Woodruff, they extended.
Jim Rosati
So – but Woodruff was a little bit different situation where he got hurt his final year going into free agency.
Jim Rosati
And the Brewers were able to say, you know what, now that you're hurt, you're about to be a free agent, let's sign you to a two-year deal.
Jim Rosati
We'll give you a two-year deal and pay you while you're hurt, if you come back.
Jim Rosati
So, they got a pretty good deal on him on that two-year deal, but he just never really came back and pitched a lot of innings.
Jim Rosati
So, yeah.
Jim Rosati
So, like I said, for me, my expectation with Keller is I fully expect him to be the guy he was in 2025 and 2024 and 2023.
Jim Rosati
I don't think he's someone who's going to give you, maybe that 2022 season that he had where he hit a 3.9 ERA.
Jim Rosati
Like, I'm not expecting that from Keller anymore.
Jim Rosati
But I think it's safe to expect, like, a 4.2, 4.3 ERA out of Mitch Keller and someone who can go 30-plus games in a year.
Jim Rosati
I think that's a reasonable expectation.
Jim Rosati
So, there is some concern here with the lack of strikeout rate.
Jim Rosati
And that's just something that's been dropping really for a while now.
Jim Rosati
But, like, he was still an effective pitcher in 2025.
Jim Rosati
like I said, in 2025, 4.19 ERA over 176 innings.
Jim Rosati
It's a 2.5 win pitcher.
Jim Rosati
You need those guys.
Jim Rosati
You need those guys to get through 162.
Jim Rosati
I don't really know how effective Mitch Keller would be in, like, a short postseason series.
Jim Rosati
Like, he's not my top one or two or three guy that's going out there.
Jim Rosati
But for someone to get you through 162, he just seems extremely valuable.
Jim Rosati
But, yeah, the real question right now is, like, what do you do with him?
Jim Rosati
Because you look at this rotation, and if you don't have Mitch Keller, if you trade Mitch Keller, you're looking at Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler.
Like, I think if they were to trade Mitch Keller, I think you've got to go out there and get someone else who has shown that they can get batters out at the major league level as a starting pitcher.
Jim Rosati
Because right now, you only have four, let's say, four and a half guys, right?
Jim Rosati
Let's count Carmen Mlodzinski as that fourth and a half guy that has shown he can start, right?
Jim Rosati
Like, he's, you can live with Carmen Mlodzinski as your fifth starter, but it's not, like, the ideal situation for him.
Jim Rosati
Like, Connor Mlodzinski is obviously at his best in that multi-inning back end of your bullpen role where if you need somebody to come on and get three outs or six outs or whatever it may be, in a big spot, it's him.
Jim Rosati
Like, that is the best spot for Mlodzinski.
Jim Rosati
And without Keller, Mlodzinski becomes your fifth starter.
Jim Rosati
Like, in my opinion, he's the fifth best starter in this organization right now if you were to get rid of Mitch Keller.
Jim Rosati
So, there's not a ton of depth there.
Jim Rosati
Like I said, there's depth, but it's just, it's very unproven depth.
Jim Rosati
if you want to count Barco and Connor Wietgrefe and Dotel and Kelly, like, you can count those guys.
Jim Rosati
It's just, you've no idea what to expect out of those people when you have them start a Major League Baseball game.
Jim Rosati
So, yeah, what do you do with him?
Jim Rosati
What do you do with him?
Jim Rosati
Do you hold on to him?
Jim Rosati
he is making, next year, going to some payroll numbers here, right?
$18.4 million is a very reasonable amount of money to pay a starting pitcher who is going to give you two to three war and have a low ERA, a low fours ERA and 175 innings.
Jim Rosati
That's a perfectly reasonable amount of money to pay.
Jim Rosati
Any team would pay that for a guy like that.
Jim Rosati
Any team, right?
Jim Rosati
For the Pirates, though, it's a lot of money.
Jim Rosati
It's a lot of money to spend on a starting pitcher that isn't your number one, not your number two, probably not your number three.
Jim Rosati
He's at best your number four and maybe your number five.
Jim Rosati
So, you look at this team and you just think, okay, from a budget standpoint, knowing how the Pirates survive and go through these decisions from a budget standpoint,
Jim Rosati
how can they afford to pay a number four or number five starter over $18 million?
Jim Rosati
And would that money do more good for them if it were allocated differently?
Jim Rosati
I think that's the question because I don't think the question is whether or not Mitch Keller is worth the money.
But if, like, you're asking me right now how to best construct the 2027 Pirates, I got to move him.
Jim Rosati
I got to move him.
Jim Rosati
And you have to hope that a team views him the way that he's pitched over the last five seasons and not just the way he pitched last year.
Jim Rosati
Because the thing about moving Mitch Keller right now is you are selling him at his lowest value, right?
Jim Rosati
He's got 28, 29 million.
Jim Rosati
It's about $29 million left on his contract over a course of two years.
Jim Rosati
If you think he's a five-plus ERA pitcher, right, and that's how you're viewing him, there's not a lot of value there.
Jim Rosati
If you think he's a low four ERA pitcher, then, yeah.
Jim Rosati
Like, that's worth it.
Jim Rosati
There's not a ton of surplus value there.
Jim Rosati
It's more like it's more in line with just who he is as a starting pitcher.
Jim Rosati
But I think if you're trading Keller right now, you're not getting anything for him in return, right?
Jim Rosati
Like, it is a pure salary dump at that point.
Jim Rosati
Pure salary dump.
Jim Rosati
You're seeing if somebody will take that remaining $29 million off your hand.
Jim Rosati
Don't expect to get anything in return at all.
Jim Rosati
If anything, you may have to attach something to Keller to get rid of the whole amount.
Jim Rosati
Alex, in his mailbag episode on Friday, said that he doesn't think that will happen.
Jim Rosati
And I don't know.
Jim Rosati
I'm in the camp where, like I said, if you look at this team going into next year, you could use another $18.5 million to spend.
Jim Rosati
And if that takes attaching a low-level prospect who's not even really in your top 30, but just like a guy for some team to take Keller off your hands, I don't know.
Jim Rosati
I might have to do it.
Jim Rosati
I might have to do it.
Jim Rosati
Just because, like I said, that $18.5 million, I think if you're the Pirates, you can get more value out of it.
Jim Rosati
Now, you've got to be good with the moves, right?
Jim Rosati
You've got to be smart about it.
Jim Rosati
But I think you can get more value out of it.
Jim Rosati
I think Keller's worth it.
Jim Rosati
I think Keller's worth every dollar of that deal.
Jim Rosati
But when you're the Pirates, you're looking for, how can I make this tilt a little bit?
Jim Rosati
In my favor.
Jim Rosati
And I think the best way to do that is to trade Mitch Keller, unfortunately.
Jim Rosati
Let's see here.
Jim Rosati
Yellowbeard says $18 million.
Jim Rosati
Just feels like a lot for Keller.
Jim Rosati
Also adds, what's the extent of his injury?
Jim Rosati
Will he be ready for the spring?
Jim Rosati
I never even looked due to my overall disinterest in Mitch at this point.
Jim Rosati
Yeah, I talked a little bit about that over in the beginning of the show, but Aiden wrote an article that says, yeah, like Keller's going to go through just a regular normal offseason.
Jim Rosati
So, you should be good.
Jim Rosati
You should be good.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Kamis says, only if the $18 million cleared up will guarantee Brandon Lowe back is when he would do it.
Jim Rosati
Which is our next topic.
Jim Rosati
So, great segue.
Jim Rosati
But before we get there, let me tell you about Defer Coffee and Tea.
Jim Rosati
Since DiNardo isn't here, I'm going to have to pull up the ad read myself.
Jim Rosati
So, give me just a moment to find that.
Jim Rosati
But I'll do a short one.
Jim Rosati
So, today's Bucco Brew is brought to you by Defer Coffee and Tea.
Jim Rosati
If you're watching this show in the morning, there's a pretty good chance you've already got a cup of coffee sitting next to you right now.
Jim Rosati
So, might as well make it a good one, right?
Jim Rosati
Defer is Pittsburgh-based.
Jim Rosati
They've got multiple locations around the city.
Jim Rosati
And it's just delicious coffee.
Jim Rosati
I ordered some a couple weeks ago.
Jim Rosati
It was on my doorstep within about three days.
Jim Rosati
So, if you're local in the Pittsburgh area, make sure you check out your local Defer Coffee and Tea.
Jim Rosati
Mentioned that North Shore Nine brought you in.
Jim Rosati
But if you're not local or if you are local and you just want some coffee delivered to your door, go to Defer.coffee.
Jim Rosati
That's D-E-F-E-R.coffee.
Jim Rosati
Fill up your cart with whatever you want.
Jim Rosati
Coffee, tea, merchandise, whatever it may be.
Jim Rosati
Use promo code NS930.
Jim Rosati
That will get you 30% off your first order.
Jim Rosati
But, yeah, head to Defer Coffee and Tea.
Jim Rosati
They've been sponsoring this show for a couple years now.
Jim Rosati
So, yeah, help out our sponsors.
Jim Rosati
So, appreciate you guys.
Jim Rosati
Let me also go ahead and tell you about Larine while we're at it.
Jim Rosati
If I can find the Larine ad read.
Jim Rosati
This is why we need DiNardo.
Jim Rosati
I'm not good at this stuff.
Jim Rosati
You know what?
Jim Rosati
When it comes to Larine, I'm just going to riff this, you guys.
Jim Rosati
I've done this enough.
Jim Rosati
I think I know the gist.
Jim Rosati
So, a lot of people use nicotine pouches, right?
Jim Rosati
And a lot of it is due to the routine as opposed to the nicotine.
Jim Rosati
So, what's awesome about Larine is you get the same routine of putting the pouches in.
Jim Rosati
They also have gum, which is what I've been using a lot.
Jim Rosati
But it's good for your teeth.
Jim Rosati
Strong for your enamel.
Jim Rosati
There's all kinds of things in there that are good for your gums and your teeth.
Jim Rosati
So, it's actually something that works.
Jim Rosati
It's got caffeine in it.
Jim Rosati
About the same amount of caffeine as a cup of coffee.
Jim Rosati
So, it gives you the energy that you would expect from having some pouch.
Jim Rosati
And at the same time, again, it's also good for your teeth.
Jim Rosati
So, make sure you go to buylorene.com slash North Shore.
Jim Rosati
They're giving our viewers and listeners up to 50% off.
Jim Rosati
That's, again, buylorene, L-A-R-I-N-E dot com slash North Shore for up to 15% off.
Jim Rosati
So, make sure you check that out.
Jim Rosati
Support our advertisers.
Jim Rosati
And, yeah.
Jim Rosati
But let's shift gears here.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Commish ended the last segment with, only if the $18 million cleared up will guarantee Brandon Lowe back, I would do it.
Jim Rosati
So, let's talk about Brandon Lowe.
Jim Rosati
Qualifying offer this year is $23.15 million.
Jim Rosati
In my opinion, that's probably the easiest decision Ben Cherington has to make at this point of time is offering him that qualifying offer.
Jim Rosati
Obviously, we all know the offensive season that Brandon Lowe had.
Jim Rosati
Gold glove finalists put up almost five war on the year.
Jim Rosati
with the qualifying offer, there's basically, one of, one of two things happens, right?
Jim Rosati
It's $23.15 million one year, and Brandon Lowe accepts it, right?
Jim Rosati
I don't think that's going to happen, but that's certainly something that could happen.
Jim Rosati
And if that happens, is anybody going to be upset about it?
Jim Rosati
I don't think so, right?
Jim Rosati
Like, that's a lot of money for the Pirates to spend.
Jim Rosati
It's $23.15 million on one player.
Jim Rosati
But also, it's a one-year deal.
Jim Rosati
There's, like, no risk that comes with that.
Jim Rosati
Like, we always say, like, there's no such thing as a bad one-year deal, unless it's a Marcell Ozuna contract, apparently.
Jim Rosati
But, $23.15 million one year.
Jim Rosati
There's no long-term risk.
Jim Rosati
You just retained one of the most important players on your roster from this year.
Jim Rosati
I think everybody is quite happy with that result.
Jim Rosati
I think that's the most unlikely result, though.
Jim Rosati
I think the result is that Brandon Lowe rejects the qualifying offer, which is fine, right?
Jim Rosati
This is Brandon Lowe's one chance that he's probably going to get to cash in on a long-term deal that pays a significant amount of money.
Jim Rosati
He's 32 years old, just turned 32 three months ago.
Jim Rosati
So, like, he's going to be playing most of the 2027 season at 32 years old.
Jim Rosati
But, again, coming off a huge year, from a war standpoint, it was his best year of his entire career.
Jim Rosati
Like, he picked the right year to have the best year of his career.
Jim Rosati
And so he's heading into free agency.
Jim Rosati
I expect him to reject that qualifying offer, which means two things.
Jim Rosati
One, the Pirates don't have to stop negotiating with Brandon Lowe, right?
Jim Rosati
Like, they can issue him the qualifying offer.
Jim Rosati
He can decline it and then say, okay, let's talk about a long-term deal then, right?
Jim Rosati
If the one-year $23 million isn't going to cut it, let's talk about a multi-year deal.
Jim Rosati
If he leaves and he goes somewhere else, then you've at least positioned yourself to, receive some draft compensation for losing Brandon Lowe.
Jim Rosati
I don't think the Pirates should receive any accolades or it's not an accomplishment to offer somebody a qualifying offer.
Jim Rosati
I don't think we've offered anybody a qualifying offer since Russell Martin in 20, in the offseason after 2014.
Jim Rosati
So it's been a bit.
Jim Rosati
It's been a bit since the Pirates have had a free agent of this caliber.
Jim Rosati
Martin obviously declined that deal.
Jim Rosati
Signed with the Blue Jays.
Jim Rosati
Brandon Lowe is probably going to decline this and likely sign somewhere else, right?
Jim Rosati
Like, I think right now, you look at the free agent market, Brandon Lowe's coming off his best season ever.
Jim Rosati
He's a lefty power bat.
Jim Rosati
There's going to be a lot of teams that are super interested in Brandon Lowe, and I don't see the Pirates.
Jim Rosati
I don't see the Pirates beating some of those teams.
Jim Rosati
I just don't.
Jim Rosati
This past offseason, there was a lot of, they went after Kyle Schwarber, right?
Jim Rosati
They went after Okamoto.
Jim Rosati
They went after all these guys.
Jim Rosati
They didn't ultimately sign anybody, right?
Jim Rosati
Except O'Hearn.
Jim Rosati
That was the early signing.
Jim Rosati
So there's no accomplishment here for offering Brandon Lowe a strong deal.
Jim Rosati
Like, if your goal is to bring Brandon Lowe back, you've got to bring him back.
Jim Rosati
And if you don't, you failed, right?
Jim Rosati
They don't get any credit for saying, hey, we offered him $70 million over three years, but darn it, the Yankees gave him a four-year deal.
Jim Rosati
That was worth $100 million.
Jim Rosati
So we just couldn't do that.
Jim Rosati
But I guess my question, and this is the broader topic, going back to the beginning of the show, someone said, what would the Brewers do with Ms. Keller?
Jim Rosati
I'm going to ask you, what would the Brewers do with Brandon Lowe?
Jim Rosati
Because if after watching this year or after watching this last decade, the topic is or the statement is, the Pirates need to act more like the Brewers, or the Pirates need to act more like the Rays.
Jim Rosati
My question to you is, would either of those two teams sign Brandon Lowe?
Jim Rosati
Would either of those two teams sign 32-year-old Brandon Lowe?
Jim Rosati
That's my question to you.
Jim Rosati
One of those two teams just traded away Brandon Lowe.
Jim Rosati
They had him.
Jim Rosati
They actually had Brandon Lowe on their team, and they traded him.
Jim Rosati
I'm going to run a couple numbers by you, because I was curious about this heading into this show.
Jim Rosati
I was curious when the last time either the Milwaukee Brewers or the Tampa Bay Rays have signed a 32-year-old free agent for three or more years.
Jim Rosati
Do this exercise in your head.
Jim Rosati
When was the last time the Brewers and the Rays signed a 32-year-old free agent to a three-year deal or more?
Jim Rosati
Try to think of an example.
Jim Rosati
Just come up with one guy and see if you can think of one.
Jim Rosati
Because I bet you can't.
Jim Rosati
Because you know how long it's been since either of these teams have done something like this?
Jim Rosati
For the Milwaukee Brewers, you got to go back.
Jim Rosati
And this is one, but they signed a – Josh Lindblom, they signed.
Jim Rosati
I think he was coming back from the KBO.
Jim Rosati
They signed him to a three-year, $9 million deal in 2019.
Jim Rosati
It was seven years ago.
Jim Rosati
If you go back, you'll get a little bit further and say, hey, when was the last time the Brewers signed somebody to a three-year deal?
Jim Rosati
But it was $10 million or more.
Jim Rosati
Like just a three-year, $30 million deal.
Jim Rosati
When was the last time?
Jim Rosati
It was 2013.
Jim Rosati
It was 34-year-old Kyle Loesch, starting pitcher, 2013.
Jim Rosati
It was 13 years ago.
Jim Rosati
Last time they did it with a hitter, Bucko Kamish, you just nailed it.
Jim Rosati
It was Aramis Ramirez in 2011.
Jim Rosati
The last time the Brewers signed a 32-year-old hitter to a three-year deal was Aramis Ramirez in 2011.
Jim Rosati
Tampa Bay Rays, you got to go back even farther.
Jim Rosati
Last time they signed a 32-year-old free agent to a three-year contract, 1999.
Jim Rosati
It was Greg Vaughn.
Jim Rosati
They signed to a four-year, $34 million deal.
Jim Rosati
34-year-old Greg Vaughn.
Jim Rosati
These are deals that just like neither of these teams would, neither of these teams, right, the Brewers or the Rays, would sign Brandon Lowe.
Jim Rosati
So my question to you is, should the Pirates operate like the Brewers or the Rays?
Jim Rosati
Because apparently they wouldn't do it.
Jim Rosati
The Rays would say, you know what?
Jim Rosati
Thank you for your year.
Jim Rosati
We're going to take that draft pick that's going to come along with you.
Jim Rosati
We're going to let some other team pay you that money.
Jim Rosati
We're going to go spend it somewhere else.
Jim Rosati
Makes you think, right?
Jim Rosati
Because as a fan of the Pirates and looking and seeing at what Brandon Lowe's done over the last year, I want Brandon Lowe back.
Jim Rosati
Like, the dude was awesome.
Jim Rosati
It was the best year that I've ever seen a Pirates second baseman put up.
Like, it's just, it's a perfect swing for this ballpark.
Jim Rosati
And if he's playing the defense like he was, and if he's healthy like he was, he's a damn good baseball player.
Jim Rosati
And he's someone who makes your team a lot better.
Jim Rosati
But guess what?
Jim Rosati
The two teams that you're trying to emulate wouldn't sign him.
Jim Rosati
So does that make you think at all?
Jim Rosati
Does that make you go, you know what?
Jim Rosati
If the Rays and Brewers wouldn't do it, maybe the Pirates shouldn't too.
Jim Rosati
Or do you go, you know what, the Rays and the Brewers wouldn't, and this is the argument I'm about to make.
Jim Rosati
The Rays and the Brewers don't make deals like that because the Rays and the Brewers, when they have a Brandon Lowe type guy that they're looking at, they don't have to go out there and get a 32-year-old free agent, right?
Jim Rosati
Because they've got a Brice Turang waiting in the wings.
Jim Rosati
They've got a, if you're the Rays, they've got somebody, right, who can play the position, and they can do it cheap, and they can do it well, right?
Jim Rosati
The Pirates don't have that guy.
Jim Rosati
Like, if the Pirates were to lose Brandon Lowe, Nick Gonzales is your second baseman.
Jim Rosati
And, I don't trust Nick Gonzales to, Nick Gonzales isn't going to replace Brandon Lowe, right?
Jim Rosati
Like, Brandon, I think Nick Gonzales can be a solid two-to-three-war second baseman.
Jim Rosati
I think he's perfectly capable of doing something like that.
Jim Rosati
But the Pirates don't have a Brandon Lowe replacement.
Jim Rosati
They don't.
Jim Rosati
Like, he doesn't exist anywhere in their organization right now.
Jim Rosati
Doesn't exist.
Jim Rosati
So when you look and you say, you know what, the Rays wouldn't do this, the Brewers wouldn't do this, well, it's because they don't have to.
Jim Rosati
They don't have to.
Jim Rosati
They got other guys.
Jim Rosati
Pirates don't have other guys.
Jim Rosati
So, I guess to go back to the original point, yes, your ultimate goal as a franchise needs to be, I gotta figure out a way to operate like the Brewers and the Rays.
Jim Rosati
But right now, from a player development standpoint, from a scouting standpoint, from just an overall talent standpoint, you aren't there.
Jim Rosati
So, you can't do exactly what they would do all the time.
Jim Rosati
And in this case, the Rays and the Brewers would not sign Brandon Lowe.
Jim Rosati
But you're not the Rays and the Brewers.
Jim Rosati
You don't have a Brandon Lowe replacement.
Jim Rosati
So, I think you gotta go, you gotta do everything you can.
Jim Rosati
You gotta do everything possible to bring him back.
Jim Rosati
And I think someone out there is gonna, this is where it's gonna start getting a little tricky here, is I think someone out there is gonna give Brandon Lowe a four-year deal.
Jim Rosati
And that's pushing it.
Jim Rosati
Like, I'm not gonna lie, that is pushing it for a guy who has shown time and time and time again that he can't play a full season.
Jim Rosati
Last year was the first time Brandon Lowe played 150 games in his entire career.
Jim Rosati
31 years old, it was the first time in his career he played 150 games.
Jim Rosati
So, you sign him to a four-year deal and it's risky.
Jim Rosati
Like, I'm not saying it's not risky.
Jim Rosati
Like, it's possible he can go out there and play four years and never play more than 110 games in a season.
Jim Rosati
Like, that could happen, right?
Jim Rosati
But I think if you're the Pirates right now, I think it was, Alex used this line on Friday, too.
Jim Rosati
Like, a four-year deal for Brandon Lowe, maybe in 2030, doesn't look that great.
Jim Rosati
Like, maybe he's a DH only at that point.
Jim Rosati
And you're paying a DH only a lot of money.
Jim Rosati
But at this point, you've got Paul Skenes, you've got Konnor Griffin, you've got Oneil Cruz.
Jim Rosati
You've got to do everything you can to win in 2027.
Jim Rosati
And if the contract makes sense for 2027, 2030, Brandon Lowe, is a problem for the 2030 Pirates.
Jim Rosati
Let the 2030 Pirates handle it, right?
Jim Rosati
We need the 2027 Pirates to win as many games as possible.
Jim Rosati
And I think the best way for that to happen is to figure out a way to bring Brandon Lowe back.
Jim Rosati
A few comments here.
Jim Rosati
Just on Brandon Lowe, Yellow Beard.
Jim Rosati
He's got enough history that they should feel good about offering three years $25 million per.
Jim Rosati
And I agree with that.
Jim Rosati
As I said, going back to the end of that, I think someone's going to toss them a fourth year there.
Jim Rosati
And if you're the Pirates and you want them, you're going to have to figure out a way to beat them.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Commission is going to be about the term.
Jim Rosati
He's 32 years old and getting his first paint.
Jim Rosati
Let's see what Bob Nutting can handle.
Jim Rosati
Yellow Beard says they'll just trade the draft pick for another hope and a prayer.
Jim Rosati
Yeah, those compensation picks.
Jim Rosati
You never know.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Mike says Brandon Lowe isn't taking three for 75.
Jim Rosati
He's probably looking for 4-120.
Jim Rosati
I think 4-120 is probably pushing it, but I think 4-100 is definitely in play.
Jim Rosati
I could see a team who really likes him and desperately needs him offering him that.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Commish.
Jim Rosati
Neither the Brewers nor the Rays would sign him.
Jim Rosati
Yellow Beard.
Jim Rosati
Neither of them would have to sign him.
Jim Rosati
They make Brandon Lowe's from scratch.
Jim Rosati
And that goes back to what I said before is like these teams don't operate like this because they don't have to.
Jim Rosati
They don't have to operate like this.
Jim Rosati
They don't have to go out there and sign 32-year-old free agents because they've been manufacturing these guys.
Jim Rosati
Like they don't need to go out there and spend $100 million on a free agent like that.
Jim Rosati
Wayne says fire Cherington and hire the assistant GM at Tampa Bay or Milwaukee.
Jim Rosati
Hey, I don't hate that idea.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Commish.
Jim Rosati
No, they don't have the infrastructure that they have to not have to sign them.
Jim Rosati
Ray still had plenty of offense without Brandon Lowe.
Jim Rosati
Brewers develop serviceable middle infield bats.
Jim Rosati
The Pirates need him.
Jim Rosati
Yep.
Jim Rosati
So I think we're all in agreement here.
Jim Rosati
Yellowbeard says, I think he knows his swing works here.
Jim Rosati
Bucko Commish.
Jim Rosati
He needs to be a pirate.
Jim Rosati
Phoenix Wayne.
Jim Rosati
The PNC Park of the equation sways me.
Jim Rosati
Yellowbeard.
Jim Rosati
If only Nick Gonzales could play second base the way Rafael Belliard played shortstop, he would make sense.
Jim Rosati
Keith says, have to sign Brandon Lowe.
Jim Rosati
Yeah, I think everyone's along the same lines here where like you want to get to the point.
Jim Rosati
Where you can be these guys, but you're just not there yet.
Jim Rosati
You're not there.
Jim Rosati
And the best way for you to win in 2027 is to bring Brandon Lowe back.
Jim Rosati
So I think we, I think we made our point, but yeah, it's one of those topics where you want to be the brewers.
Jim Rosati
You want to be the raise, but in this situation, I don't think you can be, I just don't think you can be, some quick hitters before we, before we wrap things up.
Jim Rosati
I appreciate you guys being active this morning.
Jim Rosati
I don't know.
Jim Rosati
DiNardo still hasn't texted me.
Jim Rosati
It's now almost 8 a.m.
Jim Rosati
He, I hope he's, I hope, I hope he made it back.
Jim Rosati
Okay.
Jim Rosati
Like, I don't know.
Jim Rosati
He hasn't said a word.
Jim Rosati
He hasn't said a word.
Jim Rosati
I haven't talked to DiNardo since leaving the, leaving Arizona.
Jim Rosati
So who knows what's going on with him?
Jim Rosati
all right.
Jim Rosati
Yeah.
Jim Rosati
World series.
Jim Rosati
Milwaukee's up to nothing on Tampa Bay.
Jim Rosati
game three is tonight.
Jim Rosati
my original pick was raised in seven.
Jim Rosati
I don't know if I can, I don't know if I can, if I can stick by that.
Jim Rosati
the brewers just have this, they just seem to be the team of destiny right now.
Jim Rosati
Like I thought they went, they went down for nothing on Saturday and it was like, okay, finally, like the brewers are going to lose.
Jim Rosati
The rays are going to tie things up.
Jim Rosati
They're going to go back to, they're going to go back to St. Petersburg and they're going to have, their chance to make some noise in this series.
Jim Rosati
And then Milwaukee just came storming back.
Jim Rosati
And I think that's just, God, their bullpen is so damn good.
Jim Rosati
The bullpen is so good.
Jim Rosati
And so when they get down like that, they're able to just go to whoever and keep you where you're at.
Jim Rosati
they got down for nothing early and then they were just like, you know what?
Jim Rosati
We're done giving up runs.
Jim Rosati
That's it.
Jim Rosati
No more for you.
Jim Rosati
And it allowed them time to scratch and claw and get back into the game.
Jim Rosati
So, I don't know.
Jim Rosati
I don't think this world series is over by any means.
Jim Rosati
the Tampa Bay is heading home.
Jim Rosati
They've got, they've got some games at home.
Jim Rosati
So, they got to take care of business at home, but it's looking like Milwaukee is going to win their first world series.
Jim Rosati
they've got, they've got five games now to win three of them.
Jim Rosati
They got to win three out of five at this point.
Jim Rosati
No, two out of five.
Jim Rosati
Sorry.
Jim Rosati
Two out of five.
Jim Rosati
They went two out of five.
Jim Rosati
I don't think it's over, but it's getting pretty darn close.
Jim Rosati
if you haven't yet, we had a ton of Arizona fall league coverage.
Jim Rosati
So make sure you check out our recaps.
Jim Rosati
we had a recap of the game on Thursday, had a recap of the triple header on Saturday, really fun times down there.
So we talked about that on our first recap that we did, on Saturday, Gianni Severino with a walk-off base hit an extra inning.
Jim Rosati
So it was, we caught some really fun baseball games while we were down there.
Jim Rosati
Shout out to Phoenix Wayne in the comments.
Jim Rosati
he watched a couple of games with us, watched some innings with us at, while we were down there.
Jim Rosati
so it was nice to, nice to see him again, but yeah, make sure you check out all of our Arizona fall league stuff.
Jim Rosati
If you haven't, NS9 live we did from the Airbnb, there were some comments in there.
Jim Rosati
We couldn't really, we couldn't really address the comments during NS9 live because, the computer was so far away.
Jim Rosati
We didn't really get a chance to see them, but, yeah, there were no, there were no chairs in that Airbnb.
Jim Rosati
We're in the Airbnb and we're like, where are we going to do this podcast from?
Jim Rosati
And it's like, well, the best place to do it is at this kitchen Island, but there's no chairs here.
Jim Rosati
So we had to stand the whole time.
Jim Rosati
So, is what it is.
Jim Rosati
It was either that or just like laying on the sofa and then it was like, yeah, we don't want to do that.
Jim Rosati
but yeah, make sure you check out everything from last week.
Jim Rosati
A lot of good stuff.
Jim Rosati
this week coming up, we have again, obviously Bucco Brew, that you're watching right now.
Jim Rosati
Offbeat, Alex just dropped a new episode this morning.
Jim Rosati
Alex also did a couple of offbeat, episodes, one with Wyatt Sanford, one with Easton Carmichael.
Jim Rosati
While we were down there in Arizona.
Jim Rosati
So those will also be out this week.
Jim Rosati
and then, trying to think what else.
Jim Rosati
Oh, we interviewed, Eric Longenhagen from fan graphs.
Jim Rosati
We interviewed Sam Dykstra from MLB pipeline.
Jim Rosati
So those will also be out this week.
Jim Rosati
So, make sure to talk more about just the overall pirates farm system as a whole with those guys.
Jim Rosati
So make sure you check them out.
Jim Rosati
Really good stuff coming to you this week that we were able to record, in Arizona, last week.
Jim Rosati
So appreciate all of you guys for hanging in there.
Jim Rosati
We just did a 50 minute show solo, whatever.
Jim Rosati
DiNardo, hopefully you got a good, hopefully you got a good night's sleep, DiNardo.
Jim Rosati
Hopefully you got your beauty rest.
Jim Rosati
You got to sleep in a little bit.
Jim Rosati
like Bucko Mike says, catching up on house chores, whatever it is that you're doing right now.
Jim Rosati
we did this, we did this thing solo, so appreciate y'all in the comments for being very interactive throughout the show.
Jim Rosati
You guys are awesome.
Jim Rosati
Make sure you like the video subscribe.
Jim Rosati
If you haven't, if you're listening on the podcast, sorry, you just had to listen to me talk for 50 minutes and there was no back and forth, but I'd say the shout out to the commenters, you guys, you guys carry this one.
Jim Rosati
So, yeah, but like I said, if you're, if you're watching this after the fact, leave a comment.
Jim Rosati
I'm really interested in hearing, your thoughts on really just what needs to be done with Mitch Keller.
Jim Rosati
And yeah, like I said, the Brandon Lowe thing is fun because it's a fun thought exercise because like the Brewers and the Rays wouldn't sign them.
Jim Rosati
They wouldn't.
Jim Rosati
They've shown time and time again that they wouldn't sign them.
Jim Rosati
But do you, do you say, you know what, screw that.
Jim Rosati
We need him.
Jim Rosati
We aren't the Brewers and the Rays.
Jim Rosati
We need Brandon Lowe.
Jim Rosati
So make sure, make sure you leave a comment in there.
Jim Rosati
Appreciate you guys.
Jim Rosati
yeah, let's see.
Jim Rosati
FanDuel.
Jim Rosati
I gotta imagine.
Jim Rosati
let me see if I can find some World Series odds before we get out of here.
Jim Rosati
But I gotta imagine the Milwaukee Brewers are now heavy World Series favorites.
Jim Rosati
tonight, the Rays are favored tonight.
Jim Rosati
They're minus one 20.
Jim Rosati
Freddie Peralta on the mound facing Robert Gasser.
Jim Rosati
So Rays are favored tonight on FanDuel.
Jim Rosati
they need to win.
Jim Rosati
They need to win desperately.
Jim Rosati
So that's all I got for you guys.
Jim Rosati
Let's go Bucs.
Jim Rosati
Like I said, offbeat tomorrow.
Jim Rosati
and then we'll drop our, one of our, interviews tomorrow as well.
Jim Rosati
So plenty of content coming your way this week.
Jim Rosati
But, thanks to Defer coffee and tea for sponsoring the show.
Jim Rosati
and yeah, this was North shore nine presented by FanDuel.
Jim Rosati
Peace out.
Jim Rosati
We'll see you later.
Jim Rosati
All right.
Jim Rosati
That wraps up this episode of North shore nine.
Jim Rosati
Thanks so much for tuning in.
Jim Rosati
Whether you're listening on the podcast or catching us on YouTube, if you enjoyed the show, please give this video a thumbs up and don't forget to hit that subscribe button.
Jim Rosati
If you haven't already, it really helps us grow.
Jim Rosati
And if you're listening on the podcast, a quick review goes a long way in helping others find the show.
Jim Rosati
Plus be sure to tell a friend about us.
Jim Rosati
There's always room for more here in the NS9 community.
Jim Rosati
And for those looking to support us a little more, consider joining our Patreon, become an MVP member and get exclusive perks while helping us continue to bring you more of the pirates content you love.
Jim Rosati
Thanks again for all your support and Let's Go Bucs.
Comments· 0
Should the Pirates trade Mitch Keller this offseason even if it's a pure salary dump?
No comments yet — be the first to weigh in.