What Will It Cost the Pirates to Keep Brandon Lowe?

The Pirates extended a qualifying offer to Brandon Lowe on Monday.

It was a move that made sense for a variety of reasons, most obvious being this guy is one of the best available free agents this winter.

And while I have very little optimism that he will end up accepting this qualifying offer, it does raise the question, what type of contract could he possibly get this winter?

Good morning and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

My name is Alex Stumpf and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

Brandon Lowe has been offered a one-year, $23.15 million contract and for those who don't know how the qualifying offer works, that is a set offer.

That wasn't the Pirates picking a number right there.

No, that is a set offer based off of the top contracts in the sport.

Brandon Lowe has until November 17th to either accept or deny it.

If he denies it and he signs with another club, the Pirates will get a draft pick in return.

If that contract is for more than $50 million, it's at the end of competitive balance round A, at the end of that.

So depending on if you're a glass half full or glass half empty type guy, it would either be like the last or one of the very last picks of the first round or the first pick of the second round.

The Pirates and Brandon Lowe can still end up talking and negotiating throughout all of this.

And for what it's worth, I think if he does sign a contract, it's going to be more than $50 million.

If he has an offer of north of $23 million, for one year.

He is entering a pretty weak free agent class.

Just talking strictly players who played in the United States last year.

Yes, I know there are a couple enticing players coming from Asia.

But just definitive, more sure bets, guys who have played in the major leagues before.

I think the two most obvious hitters here are Brandon Lowe and Randy Rosarena.

And Randy Rosarena has a higher profile.

They're both, they're both teammates with the Rays, obviously.

But he has the higher profile.

I think he profiles better as a power hitter.

He probably will age better over the life of the contract.

I think he will probably end up getting a larger contract.

But we really don't know what Brandon Lowe is going to end up signing for.

The Athletic has a host of baseball writers who have floated out contract offers.

And I think it really shows the duality of how they might view Brandon Lowe.

In both cases, they had Brandon Lowe as one of the top free agents available.

And Jim Bowden's projected offer or contract was three years and $45 million.

And then you have Keith Law, whose projection was at least five years, $150 million.

That's a, that's quite a spread right there.

That's over $100 million of projected contracts here.

And for what it's worth, I think it's going to wind up being in the middle there.

If Brandon Lowe signs for three years and $45 million and it's not in Pittsburgh, my friends, we are going to have some episodes of Offbeat that are going to be pretty legendary.

Like if he signs for basically what Ryan O'Hearn signed for, but with just the extra year on top.

Like, yeah.

He, the Pirates need to find a way to make that contract happen.

I don't think he's signing for three years, $45 million.

I also don't think he's going to sign for five years, $150 million.

I, maybe he could get an annual average value that's close to $30 million or even $30 million, but it would be a short-term deal in my opinion.

He's not going to get $5,150.

There are a ton of questions with this offseason in general.

One month from now, less than a month from now, whenever this episode releases, we're going to talk about how this is all shut down.

We are in a lockout.

So there's not exactly a ton of time to negotiate a contract.

You could obviously go into the lockout without a deal in hand and be like, look, whenever it ends, whether it's a short lockout, whether it's a long lockout, there's going to have to be some form of spring training or spring training equivalent.

I will sign my deal then.

Maybe the finances will change and there'll be more bidders, whatever the reason may be.

We don't know if big market spenders, what their appetite is going to be for signing guys to long-term deals.

Because owners are claiming there is going to be a cap and a floor.

And we don't know whenever it hits a cap, how teams who are really over the cap or the theoretical cap, like the Dodgers, like the Mets, how are they going to be grandfathered in?

They're not going to be asked.

at least I would assume they're not going to be asked to hemorrhage $100 million worth of payroll during the spring training period.

There's going to be some form of grandfathering in, I would assume.

And if you were to theoretically sign someone like Brandon Lowe to a multi-year deal, you could be like, well, that was grandfathered in.

We need some grace here.

Maybe that could create some, excitement.

Maybe that could create some spending beforehand.

But that is just pure speculation at this point.

This is a very weird off-season and a very weak, in my opinion, free agent class.

Skubal is a dude.

And while I think, Rosarena and Brandon Lowe, the subject here, are great players.

I think Brandon Lowe should have been an all-star this year.

He was a nominee for Gold Glove.

I'm pretty sure he was a nominee for Silver Slugger, too.

I don't know if that's been announced.

If he hasn't been, he at least deserves the consideration there.

Just a really good all-around player who is outstanding in the clubhouse, really helped set a better culture.

The type of guy that you need in that clubhouse.

And it's the type of guy that, in a perfect world, the Pirates would bring back.

But I don't know if they're going to end up making an offer of what he could potentially get.

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I'm looking at some potential candidates here of who could use a second baseman this winter.

Yankees come to mind with Jazz Chisholm also on the free agent market.

Maybe they just want to go to Wow.

Either way, they need a second baseman.

The Mets were, by fan graphs measured, the worst team in terms of second base production.

They obviously are going to be entering a pretty important season.

I think he would have to be considered there.

Baltimore, another team that, yeah, they have Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday.

They have some middle infield depth there, but they got no production out of second base.

It's going to be a very important year for them.

I would view them as a potential candidate here.

Detroit would make sense.

Claibor Torres is hitting the free agent market.

Boston would make sense.

They could use a second baseman.

My point being, there are candidates here.

And we're not even getting into, like, the Rays, who didn't get a ton of second base production.

We're not getting into, like, Cincinnati not getting production here.

That, if there was some floor established, maybe they could become late suitors.

But I think there are more than a handful of legitimate places where Brandon Lowe could go next year.

And it would make sense.

So what type of contract he would sign for?

We don't really have a perfect comp for someone like Brandon Lowe in free agency in recent years.

I have a couple names here that I want to float.

Because Brandon Lowe is coming off an outstanding year.

He was worth over five war, according to Baseball Reference, over 30 homers, over 90 stolen, or RBIs, excuse me.

Was a really good defender.

Was a really good hitter.

The red flags are, it was a pretty drastic turnaround defensively, where he went from being one of the league's worst defenders to a Gold Glove nominee.

I believe the work that he did this year will translate over, but you are still the back of your baseball card right there.

I can get the speculation.

We're just being a little cautious on there, thinking like, oh, he's going to be a great defender throughout the rest of his career.

The back injury history is also a concern.

He was fine in Pittsburgh, but he had some injuries in Tampa Bay, variety of injuries, and he hinted last year that the injuries probably impacted his defense.

So you come in with some question marks here.

Some guys who, very early 30s, Brandon Lowe will be turning 30, or be entering his 32 season, age 32 season.

Alex Bregman comes to mind, who has signed two contracts recently.

He signed a 3-1-20 with Boston, which had opt-outs.

And then he signed for five years, roughly $140 million, a little north of that with the Cubs this winter.

This is what I meant with, like, Keith Law saying that Lowe's going to get at least $5,150.

It's like, well, Bregman had a longer track record, not as many injury concerns, and he got $5,140, and it took him two goes through free agency for that.

I don't think either one is a perfect comp for Brandon Lowe.

Brandon Lowe is entering free agency on a better year than Bregman did, but Bregman has a longer track record, better, medical history.

Not perfect.

Another one that I don't think is perfect would be Christian Walker, who ended up signing three years, $60 million, with the Astros two years ago.

If you go by their war, the previous three seasons, it's remarkably similar.

It's within one.

And I know Walker is a first baseman versus Brandon Lowe at second base, but Brandon Lowe is someone who I think could change positions later in his career if he needs to.

Walker was also tracking down a little bit.

Honestly, in terms of someone who had a good pedigree, but then went to a new club and put up all-star level production in recent history, for me, is Teoscar Hernandez, who went to the Dodgers and was an all-star and then signed a three-year, $66 million contract.

Yeah, I think that's the first one where I think that's the first one where I know we're comparing an outfielder to a second baseman.

But just in terms of their pedigree, where they were in their career, their age, that's the first one where I'm like, yeah, that could be something that I actually see Brandon Lowe signing for as a theoretical here.

I don't have insight into what the offer is.

Free agency literally just started within the hour of me recording this.

We don't know how the other 29 teams are going to be offering.

We don't know what the Pirates offers are going to be.

I don't think they're just offering the qualifying offer and then just bowing out.

But I look at Brandon Lowe as someone who, if he's willing to sign for three years, man, really find a way to bring him back.

Because 2027 is the most important year this franchise has had in a long time.

If you don't succeed this year, I don't see much of a path to being really good in 2028.

If it's not that, if he ends up signing for four years, I'm worried about the back.

I'm worried about how he's got to age at the back end of that contract.

But again, 2027 is the most important year here.

If I'm Ben Cherington, I am finding a way to make the playoffs in 2027.

And if I have to deal with a bad Brandon Lowe contract in 2029 or 2030, man, that means something's gone well.

And I still have the gig.

And if it does get to five years, that's tough.

That's got to be a tough sell.

I'll be honest.

I don't think he'll end up getting five.

My personal guess and the emphasis on guess is I think he ends up signing for something in the range of four years, 70-something million.

That is pure speculation.

But just going off of recent history of what some of these guys have ended up signing for, I think a four-year deal where he's around a 20 million AAV, maybe a little less.

I would guess like 475 to 80.

We'll end up seeing what happens.

Free agency is officially open.

The Pirates have an offer on the table to qualify an offer.

I don't think he'll end up signing it.

We're going to see what ends up happening with him.

Thank you so much for listening to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

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We'll talk again tomorrow.

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