Could the MLB Lockout Help the Pirates Keep Brandon Lowe?

Free Agency has been open for roughly a week now, and we haven't seen a significant move.

That's not a surprise. free agents, you want to talk to other teams, you want to get a variety of offers, see the interests that other teams have.

Nobody, unless it's really re-signing or someone is hell-bent on going somewhere, is going to sign in that first week.

Normally, that wouldn't be an issue, but this year, that's almost a quarter of that window you have before the lockout goes into place.

And if you want to have a contract in hand before the lockout starts, and you know where you're going to go whenever the season starts, you don't have the widest window of opportunity.

And we've been operating under the assumption that this is going to be a fairly normal year outside of the lockout.

That teams are still going to spend, there's still going to be money thrown around.

As a thought exercise, though, what if the market is dead?

What does that mean to a player like Brandon Lowe?

Good morning, and welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

I've been chatting with people across the league who I trust, not to get a lot of deep insider information, but just to pick their brain of like, hey, how do you think this offseason is going to go?

And the general vibe I have gotten is there are going to be a Floria moves leading up to that lockout.

History would indicate that's been the case.

In 2021, we saw a handful of signings in mid-November, early parts of November, but they weren't super high-level prospects.

They weren't the top 20, top 30 guys on the market.

Now, some of those guys did sign before the lockout happened.

We did have like the Marcus Semien contract.

There were contracts that were given out in that time, but there really wasn't anything huge in the front half of November.

As a result, we had a weird qualifying offer class that the only player who ended up taking the qualifying offer that year was Brandon Belt.

Who had two really good years in San Francisco.

It looked like it was probably going to be his one and only chance to get a big payday.

He took the one-year deal, had an okay season, went to Toronto after that, had a pretty good year, and called it a career.

You have to wonder, did he leave money on the table?

And there's obviously a lot more in these decisions than just dollars and cents.

He was happy in San Francisco.

He was a champion in San Francisco.

That Giants team won, what was it, 107 games the year prior?

Like, I get why he would maybe be like, look, I'm going to leave some money on the table just to have a more comfortable environment, comfortable for family life, that type of stuff.

That's fine.

It wasn't the best financial decision.

That could be fine for him, but it wasn't the best financial decision.

Everyone else didn't end up taking it.

Conforto turned it down.

Maybe he should have taken it because he ended up not playing.

It was a weird year.

But I look at those cases and I compare it to this.

Looking at the qualifying offer, guys, without insider information on what's going on with the Brewers, I would think Jake Bauers is a candidate to resign.

He seems to be liked there.

He seems to like it there.

They're world champs.

He was NLCS MVP.

Yeah, maybe he could get a guaranteed contract for multi-years.

That is more.

But if he has another year like he had in 2026 and 2027, he could potentially get more.

I could see a scenario where he ends up taking the deal.

Brandon Lowe?

I don't know.

I think in a normal year, this would be a pretty open and shut case.

Like, yeah, I'm not taking it.

I'm going to take the bigger contract.

I don't know if the odds are zero here.

And let's just, to state the obvious, I do think he would get a multi-year deal.

I think he could get a big contract.

We did an episode last week where I looked at some comparable contracts of players in his position who have signed.

DJ LeMayhew ended up taking like a, it was weird because he needed to spread out the AAV.

So what would have been probably a four or five-year deal ended up becoming six.

It was different.

So it's not exactly perfect, but one of the better comps for someone like him was Gleyber Torres, who did take the qualifying offer last year from the Tigers.

So maybe it's not an open and shut, absolutely no case.

And I think really the only factor that would impact this is what if the hot stove never heats up.

We've seen teams propose to the MOBPA to have the proposed salary cap and floor pushback to 2028 in the hopes that teams would operate this offseason under certainty.

That they would not be over the cap, that they would not be over the cap, that they could add to their teams freely.

I don't know how to interpret that.

One is the purely earnest, guys, we don't want to worry about anything.

Let's just, let's just have the freedom to let our team spend while we work out the future.

The second is maybe it's a threat to the MOBPA.

Like, guys, we might not be spending if you don't agree to this.

It's only a couple of weeks that's going to impact here.

And like I said, a lot of the big free agents in that 2021-2022 class signed after.

Freddie Freeman signed in free agency.

Anthony Rizzo signed in free agency.

There were a lot of moves that happened whenever spring training was going on.

Teams and players don't have to have contracts in hand unless the player wants the certainty.

And I think in a normal year, Brandon Lowe would be getting a deal that is in the range of $62 to work in ballparks here.

$80, $100 million.

I think a low end would be like $360, a high end would be $5,100.

But this isn't a normal year.

And if teams are broadcasting that maybe they're not going to feel comfortable to spend, it creates an awkward market.

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Normally, this is the year a player in Brandon Lowe's situation where you cash in.

He had the best season of his career.

Should have been an all-star, hit 36 home runs, was worth over five war according to baseball reference.

Really good year.

I think any team that signs him to a multi-year deal has to understand he's not going to be that player probably the entire way through the contract.

He's 32.

There's still good ball in him.

He still has good baseball in him.

He could be an impact player.

But I think any team that is signing him probably is going to have to view him as more of a three or four win player than a five win player, I think.

In his career, nine years, 11.1 career win above average player gets about 1.8 war.

That's somewhere like three war on average.

162 game average, 4.2 war, doesn't play 162 games.

There's the injury history.

There's the, he just doesn't, nobody really plays 162 in this league anymore unless you're Matt Olson.

That's still an impact player.

That's still a really good player.

That's why I'm advocating the Pirates need to find a way to sign him because he is a really good player and one of the heartbeats of this team.

It has crossed my mind, though, this past week of, like, if other teams don't pursue him as earnestly as they might have in a normal offseason, does that create an opportunity for the Pirates?

Does that give them a chance to retain him, either through him signing the qualifying offer or through them working out some new contract?

I truly believe that the Pirates could sign him if they truly wanted to.

There are ways that they can make this work.

They could backload a contract if you feel that the new CBA will actually change revenue sharing.

Backload the contract.

You could give him opt-outs.

Something that they haven't done in the past, but something that they are not hardline no against.

They could, there are ways to sign him.

You can move money around.

You can raise payroll, whatever.

If the league doesn't heat up, and we don't know yet if it will or not, but if it doesn't heat up, this is the chance.

This is the chance to put together a really good offer ahead of the lockout and be like, Brandon, do you want to know that whenever this is all said and done, you're going to be in Bradenton again?

We love you.

You're loved here.

This is the best ballpark you could possibly play in for your player profile, for your power profile.

You could be your best version of yourself here and make pretty good money in an environment that you enjoy.

But, I think there are worse offers than that.

Even if he's going to be thinking, I could get an extra year, I could get 10, 20, whatever million more.

You have to put together that offer.

And I have written, and we have talked about here, how important it is for the Pirates to strike early.

Because their track record of signing players, starting in February and beyond, it's less than one war.

In seven years, less than one war.

They need impact players.

That's where you do it in the front half.

I imagine the back half, teams having certainty of contracts, there's going to be a lot more competition.

Either nothing happens with a cap and floor, and teams like the Dodgers and Yankees operate like it's business as usual.

Or small market teams are like, alright, there's going to be a floor.

We have to spend a lot of money now, and Brandon Lowe's a really good player.

Let's throw tens of millions of dollars at him.

I think the longer it goes, the less optimistic I am about Brandon Lowe returning.

And he is such an important player.

Strike fast.

If he doesn't end up taking the qualifying offer, go hard.

Just make whatever your best offer is, make it fast, and be like, let's get this done.

This expires whenever the lockout goes into effect.

Or if you don't want to give the ultimatum, but, part of the appeal would be, let's get this done fast.

Let's go into this lockout knowing, okay, there's the left-handed power, there's the team leader.

Nick Gonzales, you spend your offseason working only on third base, buddy.

You've got to get better there.

There are ways to do it.

I really think this is an important player.

He's the biggest free agent this team has had since Russell Martin, and before him, might be Barry Bonds.

They're on the precipice of becoming that competitive ball club.

Keeping your best hitter would be a big step towards actually doing it.

I see a path.

It's, let's see if the pirates walk down it.

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