Should the Pirates Trade Spencer Horwitz?

In 2025, Spencer Horwitz was the Pirates' big off-season acquisition, and while he started the year on the injured list, I think I could say pretty uncontroversially that he was their best position player in 2025.

Got off to a slow start, got better as the year progressed.

2026, he got off to an even better start, to the point that whenever his teammates were asked, who should be an all-star, he got some mentions alongside, Braxton Ashcraft, Paul Skenes, and Brandon Lowe.

He had a really good first half of the year.

He had a very rough second half of the year.

And now that I look at this team, and where this roster is constructed, the needs that they have, and just a weak free agent market in general, I can't help but wonder, should the Pirates make clear that they're not trying to ship him out of town, but if you wanted to make an offer, they'll listen.

Good morning.

welcome to OffBeat here on North Shore Nine.

My name is Alex Stumpf, and this is a daily look at your Pittsburgh Pirates.

Spencer Horwitz, like I said, really good first half of the season.

74 games played, 295 plate appearances, 280 batting average, 386 OBP, 455 slugging, that's an 842 OPS with 10 home runs and 33 RBI.

Whenever this guy was acquired at the 2024 winter meetings, this was viewed as what he could potentially bring.

Someone who, yeah, struggles against left-handed pitching, but mashes right-handers, can go deep into counts, has 15 to 20 homer power potential, extra base potential, a lot of things that you want to see out of a hitter.

And I think he gave a pretty outstanding showcase of that in the first couple months.

Then he hits the injured list, he gets a concussion while rehabbing back.

Wasn't the same player, second half of the year.

40 games played, 156 plate appearances.

So yes, half the size of the original, but 156 plate appearances isn't nothing.

40 games, that's a quarter of the season, and he batted 180 with a 263 OBP, 201 slugging percentage, and a 464 OPS.

His batting average went down 100 points.

His OBP, 120 points.

His slugging, 254 points.

He didn't homer in the second half of the season.

It was bad.

And he worked.

He worked hard.

He worked with the hitting team.

they tried different things.

Just nothing seemed to click.

And before we get too deep into this, I do want to mention that I do think Spencer Horwitz will hit better than he did in the second half of last year.

I don't think that's an omen of things to come of, well, he's just washed.

He'll never be that type of guy that we saw again.

This isn't a hitter version of James McDonald, if I could throw a name out there.

Where James McDonald had a great second half of one year, great first half of the next year, and then was pretty terrible every other year outside of those 12 calendar months.

I don't think that's what's going on here with Spencer Horwitz.

But I look at this team, and I see a team that has a really good first base option in Ryan O'Hearn.

And barring something unforeseen, they're actually going to let him play first base this year.

Like, he played a lot of second or first base after he came back from the quad injury.

Whenever Marcell Ozuna was gone, it was a lot of first base DH.

They didn't really mess with him in the outfield anymore.

Smart after, two trips to the injured list.

I think Ryan O'Hearn can still contribute to the outfield.

He could be part of that mix, but you can't be starting him six days a week out there.

If it's one day a week, cool.

That's a good deal.

That adds a lot of flexibility to your roster.

That helps you out a ton.

I need to make him play 150 games next year.

I need that bat in the lineup.

I need that guy in the clubhouse on the active roster.

Now, the Pirates do have the DH spot now, and they can DH O'Hearn some days.

They can DH Horwitz days.

And Horwitz has played a little second base in the past.

I do not want to, endorse him to be the everyday second baseman.

He is not a Brandon Lowe replacement.

This is like in a pinch.

If he makes a half dozen starts there over the course of the year, that's cool.

But that's where I view the limit.

Yeah, if there are left-handed starting pitchers on the mound, you can bench him.

Probably would be best for the lineup anyway.

But you're going to face a lot more righties.

And I think you could find plenty of playing opportunity with Horwitz, with O'Hearn as your primary first baseman.

And still have some flexibility in that DH spot that they didn't have for the Marcell Ozuna era.

But first base, I think, has some depth.

Esmerlyn Valdez, whenever he got called up, they were like, just focus on the outfield.

First base is a thought for 2027.

And maybe he could be the platoon partner there.

One prospect we've really talked about on this show is Murf Gray.

I'm really high on him.

And I think, yeah, he could go over to third base.

But long term, he profiles better as a first baseman.

Third base is a short term.

Look, there might be opportunity there in 2027.

See if he can take advantage of that.

But I'm in a position where even though Ryan O'Hearn is under contract for just one more year, I feel comfortable enough about first base, the internal options.

And if you have to go external, you could find a first baseman.

But I think you have internal options for first base for 2028 and beyond.

And that frees up, potentially, Spencer Horwitz, whose trade value might have a significant decrease if one proposal in the CBA comes to pass.

We're going to talk about that in a second.

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Part of this new CBA that the owners proposed to players, and one of the concessions for a potential salary cap and floor, is that players who hit five years of service time and are 30 years old can hit free agency early.

That's one of the concessions that they're offering.

Spencer Horwitz is turning 29 very soon and is getting ready for his first turn through arbitration through Super 2.

Under this current system, he has four years of team control remaining.

If the MOB's proposal, or at least that part of the proposal, gets accepted, that becomes three years of team control.

That's theoretically cutting his value, trade value, in a third or quarter.

That's not nothing.

I think you can make a case that if you were to trade him, this would be the highest value he would have.

And it's not just because of that.

I'm looking at this market.

It's weak for first baseman, especially on the free agent side.

Jake Bauers is the best player here, in my opinion.

He's been offered a qualifying offer.

If I had to guess, I think he's a candidate to take it.

He seems to really like Milwaukee.

He was an NLCS MVP there.

Like, if he does take it, who's the next best?

Ty France?

Good player.

Good player.

Then it's Paul Goldschmidt after that, who is an old veteran, close to 40, projected, according to FanGraphs, for 0.4 war.

After that, Josh Bell is probably your next best first baseman.

And that's assuming you have him play first base every day.

Alec Bohm, probably after that.

I'm not an Alec Bohm fan.

I am sorry.

I just do not see the hype.

Boehm is probably ahead of Josh Bell.

I get that.

But, like, I wouldn't put him above France or Bowers.

And Bowers might not even really hit the market in all earnestness.

There's not a lot there.

And I look at the teams.

Who needs a first baseman?

Couple candidates here.

I'm just going by FanGraphs were teams that produced negative war out of first base.

Cleveland and Arizona.

Horwitz was technically a guardian for a few hours.

That's how the Pirates acquired him.

Blue Jays traded him to Cleveland.

And then Cleveland traded him over later that day.

Arizona, their, most used first baseman this year was Ildemar Ovarious.

2021 Pirate Legend.

Minnesota, 0.3 war out of their first baseman.

Texas, 1.4 with no clear direction.

I see teams who have a need for this position.

Who might roll the dice and be like, that second half was whatever.

And I'm not saying trade for prospects.

I am only endorsing this for, like, a true baseball for baseball trade.

One of the Pirates' areas of weakness.

In the case of Arizona, no, I don't think it would be Nolan Arenado.

Because he had a really, his trade, no trade clause last winter created difficulties.

And no, I don't see Ketel Marte because he's had the Pirates on his no trade list in the past.

Don't know about the most recent update, but he's had it in the past.

So, I, but I, there were trades to be made.

There are ways to potentially flip someone who is at a position where you have some depth.

You feel good about 2027.

You have options for 2028.

And if you can improve the 2027 team, I think you have to explore it.

I'm not really a fan of trading players once spring training rolls around.

I think once you roll into camp, you should feel comfortable that you're going to stay in camp.

Unless, you're like a fringe guy.

Like the Kyle Nicholas trade last year, I don't fault that.

But like, whenever Bryan Reynolds was, requested a trade, whenever he got to spring trading, I viewed that as like, okay, well that's the end of that.

It's not happening right now.

He's preparing for the regular season.

This offseason, the lockout is going to create some challenges in that regard.

And we'll end up seeing what ends up happening if there might be more trades on the other side of the lockout.

But front half, whenever you can say, hey, here's a guy who had a really good calendar year, had a concussion, did not hit the same way afterwards.

But, if you're willing to take on that risk, he is cheap affordably.

You have him for years of control, potentially four years of control.

You are selling him with four years of control if you do it before the lockout versus potentially trying to float a guy who might have only three years of control after.

I could see how there would be a market for Spencer Horwitz.

I could see how the Pirates could potentially get an impact player in return.

a good baseball major league for major league type trade.

I'm not advocating that they need to do this.

They don't have to.

But whenever you have a limited amount of time and you need to improve this major league roster, you have to look at different opportunities.

Different potential outcomes.

And I think this is one that needs to be explored.

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