Paul Skenes Gets Extra Rest: Should Pirates Fans Worry?

Yo. Welcome to the North Shore Nine podcast presented by FanDuel. This is Bucco Brew powered by Defer Coffee and Tea. I'm your host, Anthony DiNardo. And with me, we have Jim Rosati. Jim, as always, happy Monday.

Happy Monday to you.

Thank you. I appreciate that.

You're such a nice guy.

Well, I know. I keep telling you this and you keep saying that I'm not.

I don't know.

But in reality, yeah.

You're so, you're just so nice and pleasant.

All the time.

Thank you. Thank you, Jim.

It is a good Monday. The Pirates took two out of three against Boston.

Season's over.

Basically, like my stance isn't changing much.

There's still six games out of the wildcard.

But as we talked about, they need to do what they need to do here.

And they took care of business against Boston.

obviously, they fell flat against Sunday.

Ironically enough, this is wild and crazy, I think.

Going into this series, if I told you that they scored a plethora of runs versus the two lefties and got shut out by Sonny Gray, would you be shocked?

Not really.

Oh, I was.

Like, yeah.

No, Sonny Gray is a really good pitcher.

So if you would have told me, hey, Sonny Gray went out and shoved, I would completely understand that.

And it's not like they were facing any good lefties.

Yeah, we've seen again, doesn't struggle against pretty bad lefties.

But no, if you would have told me that this would happen, I wouldn't have been too surprised.

Well, I would have been.

And I was.

I was.

Both lefties.

Again, neither lefties gave them problems.

They came out scorned, hitting home runs.

Either way, they take two out of three against Boston.

This team is going to do anything.

This team has to go on runs.

This team has to essentially win every single series going forward.

Like, that's without question.

And I guess, theoretically, if they go one and two, then they have to sweep one.

You know what?

Like, they have to go two and three the rest of the way.

They have to win 66.67% of their games the rest of the way to, like, have this fighting chance.

So, again, that's the mindset you're in.

You have to take every single series.

And they can checkmark the very first one against Boston.

And that's a tough one.

Boston was.

Now, again, they floundered a little bit of late.

But, you want to talk about one of the hottest teams in baseball ever.

That was the Boston Red Sox.

Yeah, Boston isn't playing like they were, two weeks ago.

So, it was nice to run into them now.

But, yeah, it was a good series win.

Good series win.

Like, they needed to win a series.

They won the series.

They still have to make up for the Marlins series loss, right?

So, how we talked about last week, where if they lose a series, like, that means they owe a sweep.

Like, they have to win two of three.

Like, they have to win two of three.

And so far, they're not.

They played 500 ball last week.

Yeah, and that's not good enough, right?

So, 500 ball isn't going to cut it.

Yep.

So, that's the part that sucks.

So, Mr. Nice Guy, thanks for ruining the party right now.

Just trying to be nice and say two out of three.

But, no, Jim had to put perspective in.

Something's either up with my AirPods or your mic.

I'm going to go ahead and say it's my AirPods.

Well, I can't hear you now.

Can you hear me now?

Yeah.

Okay.

There we go.

All right.

It was my AirPods.

You see, you're so nice.

You didn't really pass the blame on to me.

You owned that.

See how you take ownership and responsibility for your failures?

It wasn't my failure.

It was the AirPods failure.

Here we go.

Now, Mr. Excuse Man.

All right.

But, no, for real.

the Pirates take two out of three.

Brackton Ashcraft, we obviously discussed him at length.

The post-game show, even afterwards.

Like, just what a performance by Brackton Ashcraft.

Last week.

I guess, yeah, he didn't pitch against Boston.

I'm going back to Miami.

Regardless.

I want to talk about Brackton Ashcraft, apparently.

No, we had some solid pitching performances this weekend as well.

The one that we didn't have, though, was from Paul Skenes.

Paul Skenes was pushed from Sunday.

He's going to be pitching on Wednesday.

They claim it to not be injury-related, Jim.

So, we're going to talk about him today at pretty good length.

I think we can maybe save it for a little bit here later.

But, just real quick.

Like, does that worry you?

Or is this more like, you know what, this sounds about right.

Maybe he needs some rest.

And that's probably maybe something they should have done earlier.

What's your take on hearing Skenes being pushed to Wednesday?

I'm not surprised.

He really looked bad last week.

So, that's...

It's not a surprising move.

What I'm really looking forward to seeing is if it matters.

Like, does giving him these three extra days matter?

Does he just...

Does he look different on Wednesday than he did when?

On Tuesday?

That's when he lost pitch?

Tuesday?

Wednesday?

Yeah, it was Tuesday.

Oh, yeah.

He opened it.

The series, yeah.

Yeah.

So, Tuesday.

Does he look different than he did on Tuesday?

If he does, then...

As I said, then that's a good sign.

Maybe it just meant he was just a little tired.

Yeah.

But if he doesn't, then...

This is just a picture of who he's going to be the rest of the year, probably.

Yeah.

Well, like I said, I guess we'll get to that.

The head blocker start.

I want to talk about him a little bit here, too.

You know what?

There was some...

There was some chatter in the Discord last night.

Apparently, someone put up his arsenal and all that.

I think it was like that pitch profile account where they talked about they wouldn't be...

They want to see Pittsburgh turn Lake Bachar into a starting pitcher.

So, they Mason Millard.

Yeah.

And I don't know.

I think I'm pretty happy with just what Lake Bachar is now.

Like a multi-inning reliever.

I don't know if I love, like three-inning outings every single time.

But...

Because, they've been a little hit or miss here.

But, yeah.

Like, someone who can do that sixth and seventh inning if you need him to.

Maybe a fifth or sixth inning if you need him to.

In a game that you're not necessarily, punting, right?

Like, if you're not losing the game seven to one because your starter blew up and you're just trying to get through the game, sure.

But, like, Bachar strikes me as a guy where, hey, these starting pitchers have struggled to go deep in the games anyways.

So, if you need someone to pitch two innings and maintain a lead even earlier in a game, he's a good guy to do that.

Like, those middle innings.

So, yeah.

I think the role that they've used him in so far is good.

You get length out of him when you need him to.

And if you need just one inning out of him, you can get that too.

But I don't know about stretching Lake Bachar out into a starter.

He's 31 years old.

He hasn't started since he was 24 in AA, I think.

And it's not like he was, like, extremely effective back in the day there either.

Now, he's a different pitcher now than he was when he was 24.

But I don't see a reason to.

And then I guess one of the things, like, when the trade happened, we discussed that he's got a large pitch arsenal.

Like, there's part of that plays.

And I guess I can understand the reasoning.

But, no.

I jokingly talked about Yohan going into the rotation not too long ago.

The reason we're even having these discussions is because of Carmen Mlodzinski.

Like, honestly, the reasons we're having this is because of Carmen.

Because Carmen's back at the rotation and he has not pitched well.

But these are the same conversations as Carmen Mlodzinski.

Like, no.

Like, stay in the bullpen.

Like, stay in the bullpen.

That's where you excel.

And, honestly, like, Bachar doesn't truly excel in the bullpen role.

Like, he's fine.

He's fine.

Right?

But, like, he's fine as a reliever.

Nothing screams, I'm fine as a reliever, so I'm going to be, I'm going to excel as a starter now.

If you're just fine as a reliever, you're probably not a starter.

Like, at least Carmen can say, hey, I dominate as a reliever.

I might be a starter.

You can't say, hey, I'm fine as a reliever.

I might be a starter.

If you're fine going through the order one time, trust me, you're probably not going to be fine going through the second time.

So, but with that being said, like, to the point here, that's why Bachar has value is because, like, why does Carmen Dizzi have, like, why does he have value as well?

It's because, like, there is true value in that multi-relief ball type of, pitcher.

So, like, let him be that.

Absolutely.

Let him be that.

And he showed value because he had to go ahead and do a start.

And I was shocked he went as long as he did.

But when you saw how he pitched, it wasn't shocking that he went that long.

He was pitching fantastic against a really good lineup.

And, yeah, like, shout out to him.

He had a really good performance there.

Yeah.

Yeah, you needed that.

I said the offense, the offense responded nicely yesterday after the shutout.

They got an early lead.

They added to it.

And, yeah, Bachar did a good job of giving them some length and shortening the game a little bit and putting up a few zeros.

So, yeah, good stuff.

But I'm with you.

Like, we're not talking about a guy with a, sub-2 ERA in the bullpen or a two, like, a low.

Like, we're talking about a guy with a high-3 ERA in the bullpen.

Right.

He's okay.

He's fine.

I don't see a need to, yeah, stretch him out anymore.

Again, it was a guy who basically got his footing in the majors at age 30.

He didn't do that because he was a really good starter.

And at age 30, he had a ERA of 393.

And right now he has an ERA of 380.

In his second year, as a reliever.

Like, yeah, nothing's.

Outside of the actual pitches that he has.

Again, he has, like, a starter's arsenal.

And that's probably why we're talking about this, right?

And I get it and understand that.

But, right.

At any rate, though, good stuff from him.

Yeah.

Yeah.

Again, like, how about the lefty thing?

Is the, okay.

I'm going to sound a little facetious here.

When I say solved.

It's not solved.

It's not solved.

But, the lefty lineup.

Issues.

Esmerlyn Valdez's coming alive again.

He's on a six-game hit streak.

He looks a lot comfortable at the plate again.

Ronny Simon's here.

I'm not ready to anoint anything.

Still batting over 300.

It's better than Marcel.

There's that.

Triolo's actually been productive, since July.

Right?

Since July 1st.

His OPS is, like, a seven-something.

Again, nothing to hammer home about.

But, like, he's a productive hitter.

And, obviously, he's even better against lefties.

And Oneil Cruz is waiting in the wings here coming up soon-ish.

Maybe.

Maybe.

So, two things here.

Oneil Cruz and this lefty lineup.

the lefty thing is just a fluke.

It's...

Okay.

Yeah, they faced a rookie who had been having, like, a bit of success, but still a rookie, nonetheless.

And then they faced Patrick Sandoval, who's not the pitcher that he used to be.

So, yeah.

Two games doesn't reverse a trend for me.

I think a big piece of this is Bryan Reynolds, because they went through that stretch after the All-Star break where Reynolds was just abysmal.

And you can't have this lineup with the injuries that they have now.

It's just not as deep as it was before.

Like, before, I think you could have survived with, like, two guys slumping really bad.

Like, two of your main guys.

You can't do that anymore.

Like, with O'Hearn out, with Griffin out, with Cruz out, you can't have two more guys slumping.

So, when Reynolds was slumping, when Valdez was slumping, it just, it was a problem.

And then against the lefty, like, Brandon Lowe has been awful, right?

So, like, if you're facing a lefty and there's Reynolds and there's Valdez and there's Brandon Lowe, for a stretch of time there, none of them were really hitting the ball.

Reynolds is a key piece to that.

You don't really expect much from Brandon Lowe against the lefty.

It's if you get something from him, cool.

Valdez is obviously picking things back up.

But, yeah, Reynolds needs to be better.

And he had a better series this weekend.

Had a big double yesterday.

Big hit yesterday.

And then, like, the emergence of Flores, I guess, has been...

That's my next one.

fine.

But it's still too small of a sample size for it to mean anything for me.

Like, you look at the batted ball data and it all looks good.

So, we'll see.

We'll see what's there.

Was it not much for me to take from his performance so far?

But, so far, it's so good from Flores.

But, yeah, I just...

I'm not saying they've turned a corner or anything.

Okay.

No, absolutely fair.

Right?

Absolutely fair.

But, to see Esmerlin turning the corner is huge.

Again, if they are going to perform the rest of the year, it's a lot of pressure on a rookie.

But, like, he has to.

Because, again, when you're talking about lefties, this lineup is very thin in that sense.

Like, Esmerlin has to be a dude.

And part of his calling card is his performance against lefties.

Right?

he can mash lefties.

He has to start doing that for this team to be competitive.

And he has started doing that again.

So, there is that.

Again, like Rafael Flores, that's a guy who can hit lefties as well.

I know it's a little small sample.

But, we are discussing Endy Rodríguez is probably out for the year.

Seems like it'd be a prolonged IL on a hip.

I don't know how long that's going to be.

It's nothing short.

It doesn't sound like it's short.

I'm going to assume right now.

I think it's a lot easier and better to assume he's probably out closer to the end of the year than he is returning soon.

With that said...

We're close to the end of the year.

Yeah.

Yeah.

With that said, 547 OPS versus lefties.

Like, he's part of the problem versus lefties.

I'm not saying Endy Rodríguez is part of a problem.

He's part of a solution for this team.

But, specifically for his lefties, he's part of that problem.

He can't hit lefties either.

Rafael Flores is in this lineup and hitting lefties now again.

He's not the best behind the plate.

But, hey, neither was Andy.

He's hitting lefties.

Maybe they're finding some patchwork to at least try to get competitive, at least more competitive than they were before the trade deadline with what they have.

So, I don't know.

Again, there is that aspect of it.

Reynolds, of course, being a switch hitter, he needs to start hitting lefties.

He needs to start hitting, period.

He has one of the biggest drop-offs pre- and post-all-star game in baseball.

Yeah, I think it's the second worst drop-off in the league, yeah.

I think Jordan Walker is maybe the first, which also is a tremendous drop-off.

But, yeah, Bryan Reynolds is up there.

Yeah.

So, it's like a negative 92 draw.

It's like almost a full average player drop-off.

Yeah.

So, anyways, he needs to start performing.

His brother is starting to perform again.

If you have Rafael Flores, maybe.

I don't know.

There's maybe something versus lefties here they're improving upon.

But, again, I think the biggest thing would be a healthy O'Neill cruise.

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But, yes.

Oneil Cruz is in rehab.

He's not.

He's not.

That's the second time I've said that before.

Altoona.

it's Altoona.

But, yeah.

Yeah.

Yeah.

He's on rehab.

There you go.

He started in AAA in Indy.

Then they went away.

Reverted to Altoona to stay closer to Pittsburgh.

He seems like he's traveling back and forth.

They keep checking up on him.

He finally played back-to-back games.

There still seems like a little bit of uncertainty.

The thing that worries me, and I do say worry.

it's been longer than I think you anticipated.

O'Neal coming back.

even Ben Cherington said he should be back by the end of July.

That certainly has not been the case.

And you're still hearing that there's soreness.

Still feel some, soreness and stuff in that hand.

And, again, that hand, that's going to be a problem.

that could take until next year for him to get fine again as far as the swing and power and whatnot.

But, yeah.

Hearing the soreness and stuff, I don't know how easy I feel about Oneil Cruz coming back and performing.

Yeah.

It's concerning, right?

Now, what I do know is on Wednesday, at least, in his rehab start, the day that he DH'd in Altoona, he at least was hitting the ball really hard.

He was smoking the ball.

I'm not quite sure about, like the last two starts.

But he did get his, like, back-to-back games in the field in on Friday and Saturday, which typically is, like, the last step before you get activated.

But, yeah, they keep saying that he's dealing with some lingering issues.

And when it comes to hand stuff, you don't really want to rush things with the hand because if your hand's hurting, it's hard to hit.

And that's a difficult thing to do.

So, yeah, I'll be interested to see.

it seems like, based off of how they're doing this, today's the day.

But I don't know.

I don't know.

They haven't really given too many indications of it.

I know that it was...

I'm sure they weren't expecting him to be on rehab, for two weeks.

Like, two, three weeks.

Like, that's a long time.

He's already been six rehab games over the course of, like, a week and a half.

So, yeah, I don't know.

I'll be curious to see there.

they could certainly use Cruz, but they also could use him if he's healthy.

If he's not healthy and he's not at his best, then it may be best for the team to wait a little bit.

Because I don't know if, like, if a 70% Cruz is what you need right now.

Yeah.

Well, I think that goes in two ways here.

Because, like, you talk, is this 70% Cruz what this team needs now?

And I guess, like, in theory, yes.

Like, even a 70% Cruz, I think, helps improve this team.

But because of the type of player Cruz is, a 70% Cruz just means he's going to be, like, a 30% Cruz.

And I guess the reason I'm saying that is...

Yeah, like, what does that even mean, really?

A 70% Cruz, right?

Right, like, I'm 70% of the way there.

But if that hand is struggling...

And again, too, like, you say the two weeks.

And I just want to put in perspective here.

Like, this is also a guy who's been out for two months.

And again, we're talking about a person who...

The struggles that he has.

Like, he has to get that timing back.

He has to have...

I'm seeing pitches well again.

I'm seeing pitching for the first time in how long.

And I probably...

Like, Cruz is probably one of those guys that, it's like, ah, yeah, give me a game or two and I'll be fine.

I've been off for two months, but, like, whatever.

Give me a game or two and I'll be fine.

That's...

Unfortunately for Cruz, that's not him.

And if he comes up at 70%, does that mean he's going 0 for 4 every night for a week until that timing comes back?

That's why I say, like, 70% probably means he's like...

But he'll probably give, like, 30% of his production because he can't be a 70% type of player.

He needs to be closer to 100%.

Yeah.

Because he's going to be streaky.

regardless, he is a streaky player.

And, yeah, I just think that with this injury and, again, with him having just six games under his belt coming back probably isn't enough in the length of time he's been out for.

So, I don't know, man.

I don't know.

If he comes up, I'm not hating it at this point in time.

But I also think, like, maybe he should just get, like, a few more games down there.

It's not like he's been tearing the cover off the ball down there either.

Like, he's striking out there.

Well, I'll say this.

Like, he's not tearing the cover off the ball, but, like, the strikeout rate's still not – like, it's still fine.

He's at a 28% strikeout rate in his six games.

That's less than Major League.

That's less than what it was, you know.

Eh, that's higher than what it was, like, when he was actually in the minors.

But it's not alarming by any means.

But, yeah, I guess you've got to evaluate and say, like, is he ready to go?

If he's ready to go, then you've got to activate him.

But if he isn't, then, yeah, I don't know.

Because you don't want – yeah, like you said, you don't want to activate him and him come up and he's still not be ready, and it takes him a week to get back into the swing of things.

Because they don't – they can't afford to have Ohno Cruz get activated and go on a one-for-20 stretch with, 12 strikeouts.

And, like, to this point here, like, 70% Cruz sounds like a 46% Billy Cook, and, like, that can be accurate.

But at the same point, Billy Cook has four plate appearances since the trade deadline.

like, you're not – you're not playing Ohno Cruz one game every two weeks.

Right.

He's here every game.

I do think – So can you afford 46% of Billy Cook every single game?

No.

Yeah, I think if you do get Ohno Cruz back, you probably still ease him in a little bit.

Like, he's not – Well, yeah.

He won't be in the lineup every day.

Yeah.

The point of saying remains right.

Like, he's – Yes.

In air quotes, an everyday player, not a guy who's playing once every two weeks.

Right.

And hoisting a cone the rest of the time.

Yeah, he's not there for vibes.

Right.

And that's what I'm getting at.

So, I don't know.

I don't know.

Like, you said, like, what also – What is your description of ready?

Just feeling good?

Or, like, you know what?

I'm feeling comfortable with the plate ready.

I think he's got to – Like, he's got to feel good.

Like, the hand needs to not be hurting.

Like, if your hand is hurting, that's not a good sign.

So, like, it needs to be healed.

I don't like the idea of rushing someone back before the injury is healed.

So, like, he needs to be healed.

And, like, yeah, the timing needs to be back.

That's the big piece.

Like, you can't be – And, again, I haven't watched any of his rehab appearances.

I'm just going off of numbers.

Same.

Yeah.

And, like, the numbers aren't pretty, but it's rehab.

Like, it's – Yeah.

I don't really care about the numbers necessarily.

It's more of a – How's he look?

It's spring training.

The numbers don't matter.

Right.

All right.

Yeah.

So, I don't know when Cruz is coming back.

it should be soon.

It sounds like it probably will be soon.

I don't know if it's going to be this upcoming series.

again, he did play back-to-back, but it is worrisome.

It is worrisome that the pain is still there.

And, again, with that type of injury, like, us also, you're saying, too, it's, like, ready means not having pain.

This could also just be something where he's going to have soreness the whole rest of the year.

It just could.

Like, can he play through that soreness?

The injury might be healed, and that's going to be on the medical staff.

And here's me putting on my doctor's hat because, clearly, I'm a doctor.

But, like, I could understand it.

It could be a situation where it's like, okay, there's no worry about, like, the bone itself.

Like, it's actually healed.

You're just going to have symptoms of soreness throughout the year with this type of injury, and it's like, can Ono play through that?

Yeah, it's got to have, like, no, like, what Bucko Kamish says here.

Like, it has to have no effect on him.

Right.

If it's affecting him in any way, then I think you got to wait.

So, probably more management throughout the year also, days off.

Yeah.

I don't know.

It's unfortunate because they could use somebody who can put the ball over the fence.

They could use another one of those guys.

Yep.

So, there's that.

There is that.

Some of those things.

Do we want to get into Paul Skenes's now?

Yeah.

Let's dive in here.

There were some quotes that were said by him.

First off, I guess, the quote by him, when Don Kelly announced that he is going to get pushed back.

He was going to start Sunday.

They discussed.

They talked.

They're going to push him back to Wednesday.

And Paul just said, it is what it is.

Okay.

That's fine.

Well, it is what it is was from his last start where they asked him, just what's going on.

And he said, it is what it is.

And Alex has brought this up on offbeat a couple times.

He's just not having a good time.

Like, dude is just straight up not having a good time.

Right?

He, you never see him smile.

You never see him just, like, look comfortable on the mound.

Every time he pitches, he looks disgusted with himself.

He seemed, every post-game interview, he's sad and mopey.

He's just, he's lost the swagger.

Like, the swagger that Paul Skenes had, right, before where, like, I still go back to that, his second, that second game in Chicago where he was just, like, good luck.

Right?

Like, there was confidence.

He just, he knew he was better than the people that he was facing.

And he was just like, I don't care.

He's like, I'm better than you and I'm going to perform.

He has completely lost that.

Like, that psyche of his is gone.

Right now, he's, it's like he's trying to find answers.

He doesn't, he doesn't know what's up.

I know the defense hasn't been as good this year as it's been in years past.

But, like, his stuff has also been significantly worse this year than it has in years past.

Like, there's, there are a lot of factors as to why Skenes isn't performing.

Some of it is out of his control, but a lot of it is in his control.

And he just, he's lost that killer instinct that he's had.

The, it is what it is, quote.

I hate that.

I hate hearing that from him.

Sounds like a guy who's defeated.

Yeah, I hate it.

And then to hear him say, I'll accept whatever decision Don says.

To be honest, I probably would do the same thing too.

Like, that, it sounds like a guy who just doesn't want the ball.

Like, take the ball, Paul.

Like, last year, whenever they were doing his load management, like his innings restrictions the whole time.

He was like, yeah, we're going to get through this season.

But he's like, but we are going to get through the season.

He's like, we're not skipping a start.

Like, I am taking the ball every time through the rotation.

However they want to handle it from there is whatever.

But he's like, I'm getting the ball.

Where's that Paul Skenes?

Where's the Paul Skenes who wants the ball every fifth day?

Because he just doesn't sound like that guy.

And that's the alarming piece to me.

It just seems like there is a skill side to this.

But a lot of pitching is just, is mental.

Tyler and, I think it was you and Tyler who talked about Jared Jones' start on Saturday.

And it's like, you've got to just, a lot of it's just like, you got to think you're better than the other guy.

It's a, it's a one-on-one-on-one.

It's like baseball's a team sport, but pitcher versus batter is one-on-one.

And he's losing.

Tyler, to quote Paul, big on big.

Yeah.

Because like before that battle between Paul and the batter, like it was already won.

Like Paul won it in advance just because he knew he was better than you.

And so did the batter, like the batter knew it too.

And now that's lost.

The batters are more confident.

No, I can hit this guy.

Everybody's hitting this guy.

Paul is lost.

He doesn't know what's going on.

It's rough to see.

He's just, he's just not the, he's not the same guy.

Yeah.

And like, I guess what I want to say here too, about those quotes is it's not like it's a, at least for me, I'm not looking at this and saying that's weak by Paul for saying that.

I think that some of that is some self-awareness, but the problem is there's some self-awareness that he, again, he also recognizes that he isn't that guy anymore, that's, that's what the problem is.

it's not so much that he's not pleading and begging to give me that ball every five days.

It's the fact that he understands.

I'm not the guy last year who was like, give me the ball every five days.

Maybe the team is better if I take some time off because I don't have this already one going into it.

I don't have that confidence anymore.

I don't have that mentality anymore.

And it's correct.

Unfortunately, now it is, it is absolutely twofold.

And I will remain on this stance all year long.

I understand Paul, like Paul is not the same pitcher, but it is also like, not as this is also, it's just funny, weird, and ironic.

And I guess it's just because of Paul Skenes and what he has given so far.

It's been God, like it's been God, like he's come into the scene and had an ERA under two back-to-back years.

He comes on the scene and wins rookie of the year and Cy Young back-to-back dude's 23 years old.

He's having a year where he's not that successful, but he's still like, when you look at the numbers, like he's still among one of the FIP leaders, look at expected ERA, like you look

at all the numbers and stuff and it's like, he's not a bad pitcher.

And then what's funny too is, and again, I'm trying to put some things in perspective here.

Understand, Paul is not the same pitcher and there's things that are worrying me too.

And we'll get to that part, but it's also just ironic that Paul Skenes, this is a three 80 ERA and he's now being fat shamed.

He's now being talked about his mechanics, his arm angle, the drop-off in velocity.

Is he injured?

Is this, everyone in the world is questioning Paul Skenes and what's wrong.

And it's like, he's the worst pitcher that existed.

And then there's Braxton Ashcraft who can't get enough praise and what a beautiful pitcher.

And this is the guy that Paul should be.

And they both have a three 88 ERA.

They both have that exact ERA.

And it's just so funny.

The contrast of pictures that these two pictures are in the eyes of the jury.

Yeah.

a lot of it goes back to, expectations, Paul Skenes, like you mentioned, set the bar really high for himself.

Ashcraft is a guy that we were all really high on going into the year.

I said he was going to get Cy Young votes going into the year.

He might, he might get there.

Honestly, I think it's just the way that they've looked though.

like when Ashcraft is pitching, you can clearly see like this guy's attacking hitters.

He's throwing strikes.

He's loading up the zone.

He's not wasting a lot of pitches.

And you saw that, like in the, that complete game he threw last week.

It's that's something Paul Skenes.

We haven't seen Paul Skenes, put a performance like that together in months.

Colorado game was the last time you could say, all right, Paul, like that was a dominant performance.

Ashcraft has more of those type of outings where he'll give you seven innings, one run, and he's just cruising.

schemes has just seemingly lost that ability to do that.

He, there's a lot of waste pitches.

There's a lot of balls.

There's a lot of foul balls, the inability to put hitters away.

It's just, it's a frustrating, like it's just not as Paul Skenes.

Hasn't been as fun to watch this year as Braxton Ashcraft has.

Like you just, I feel like every Paul scheme starts, you're just laboring through it, you're like, why can't he get this guy out?

Why is another 11 at bat, another 11 pitch at bat to Nico Horner?

Like Nico, I feel like every time you face Nico Horner, he's going to make Paul throw 15 pitches, right?

Whereas with Ashcraft, he's throwing strikes.

He's getting balls in play and he's just getting out.

it's a, it's a smoother, more aesthetically pleasing.

Type of performance that Ashcraft goes out and does.

Now Ashcraft gets blown up every once in a while.

He's that's happened to him this year.

but yeah, I feel like that's just the difference between the two is Ashcraft.

Just, he just looks like when he's on, he looks better.

And Paul Skenes, hasn't been on for us to get that, get that feeling lately.

It's been, it's been a long time.

Yeah.

So are you worried about schemes as far as is he injured?

Like, is there maybe more to this?

Is there more to the loss of loss?

Because again, like we understand that the loss of velocity was, as he comes out and says something of design, like it's not a loss of velocity.

It's more or less, here's what I'm going to be doing this year.

It's not been that effective.

And again, I want to stress, and I will ride on this point.

He is not as bad as that era number looks.

This defense is also atrocious.

Okay.

But this, it's not the same picture.

The results have definitely been worse, but are you also now worried that he gets pulled with just a limited amount of pitches that velocity had a major drop off his last start?

And now he's being, pushed back again.

The pushback could certainly just be like, listen, maybe that is part of just like dead arm.

Maybe you're just tired.

Maybe you're just worn down.

Let's give you some rest.

And maybe we see that spike back up, him be a little better.

Maybe he just needed some time away, time off or whatever.

But there's a lot of warning signs here.

is that true?

Are there some red flags here as far as injury?

There are certainly red flags.

Yeah.

Like the drop in velocity, you look at his, I think it's Travis Sochick.

I'll see if I can find it.

But, he went through and he charted the average fastball velocity from Paul Skenes's in every start of his career.

And it's a just, it's just a straight up downward trend.

Start after start after start.

So is there, is there, are there red flags?

Yeah.

Am I, do I think there's an injury problem here?

I don't, I don't think there is.

Like I do.

I believe Paul Skenes's when he says that the drop in velocity is deliberate.

I think it's a stupid idea.

Like it clearly hasn't worked.

The fastball still, plays well, but the rest of his pitches don't write.

Like every other pitch is worse this year than it was previously.

And I think a lot of that has to do with just, it doesn't play as well as it played better off of 98, 99 than it plays off in 95, 96.

So you're seeing that.

but this is the chart that I, that I was referring to.

So you can see here, this is Paul Skenes's daily game log fastball velocity.

And that's a, that's a trend, right?

That's down and to the right.

the average fastball is trending downward.

sounds like the Zapruder film down to the right.

So there is, there is that, there is that, but it's also, it's a trend that also started, last year.

Like he wasn't throwing as hard last year as he was his rookie year either.

So I don't think he was injured last year.

I think that was by design.

and this year he just took it like a step further.

so no, I don't think he's injured.

I don't know if he's tired or their stamina issues.

He did say a couple things in this weekend where, he said physically he doesn't think it's been any more challenging, any more or less

challenging this year than the last couple of years.

he did say that mentally the challenges have probably been different, but then Ben goes and says, that, what was Ben's quote there that he, I have it

up if you want it.

Yeah.

What was, what was that?

so he does say, I would say it would have been expected at some point that you're going to see some stretch where you're grinding through it a little bit.

And that is what he is.

And with that said, he's still been one of the best starting pitchers, the national league.

He's among the league leaders and strikeouts.

His strikeout walk rates are exactly where they've been in the past.

And he's on pace for a four to five win season from a starting pitcher.

This has been an excellent year for him.

Yeah.

Yeah.

There's the money quote, right?

This has been an excellent year for Paul Skenes.

and all those things are true.

He, the strikeout numbers are there.

His strikeout rate, he's striking out 30% of the batters.

Like if you're a starting pitcher and you're striking out 30% of the batters, like you're going to, it's going to be a good, you're going to have a good time typically.

And Paul, well, yeah, he just isn't like you look at, you look at the overall numbers and again, he's fifth in the national league and FIP, F war is six.

So he's still like a top pitcher in the league.

It's just before where he was head and shoulders, the best pitcher in the league.

He's just not that anymore.

at least not this year.

He's not, his ERA is 19th in the national league.

So again, it's not like it's not like he's terrible.

He's the, he's at the 19th best ERA in the national league.

yeah.

But before that it was just a lot better.

And yeah, I think for me, it's just going back to, I think this year is lost.

Like, I don't think you can make, I don't think you can flip the switch this year and say, I'm just going to go back to being the same guy I was.

Like, I think that takes an off season to go and reinvent yourself again.

so like, this is who he's going to be this year.

This is who he's going to be.

I really hope they revisit this over the off season.

And again, I don't think there needs to be too big of a change, but go back to the guy that you were before just a little bit.

I don't think you have to, he doesn't have to throw one Oh one 100 all the time.

Like he doesn't have to do that, but also have it in your bag.

Yeah.

Be able to, be able to do it.

yeah, it's just frustrating because I don't look forward to Paul skiing starts anymore.

Cause they haven't been fun.

Like they've been, they've been a grind.

Not only have they've been a grind for him, but like, they've been a grind for us to watch.

They're sluggish.

You get frustrated cause he's missing arm side on half of his fastballs.

Yeah.

He just doesn't look, he doesn't look dominant out there anymore.

And that's where I think, again, like the quote from Ben, it's been an excellent year.

I don't know if I would say excellent.

And again, that's me who's trying to put some perspective on this and say, Paul truly isn't this bad as a pitcher.

And the reason is for all those numbers, you just rattle off and such, there's a lot of bad luck on his side also, but also some self-awareness.

It hasn't been excellent.

Paul scheme isn't saying it is what it is because he's having an excellent year.

There's just that there's also just that.

And I'm with you.

That's why I think the next start is big because with this delay, with this extra time, what version of Paul Skenes that we see?

And again, like I'm not expecting to see 2025 Paul Skenes.

What I'm, what I'm stating is it's a velocity, at least back to like what it was before the last star, like, are we at least seeing 98, 99 or something and not 94, 95 or I don't know.

but again, like if we're still seeing more to what we were seeing the star before, then like, it's a, that's a problem.

Cause that was a big drop off this last start in the velocity.

If you're getting a drop off like that's still a whole nother different Paul Skenes and the Paul Skenes we're talking about for the season.

And that can't be good for his secondary stuff going forward.

We can't have that Paul Skenes.

If you're going to have a shot, at least give me the Paul Skenes who had this five ERA since may something or whatever it was, because that guy at least had a lot of bad luck and he's not a five year, eight type of pitcher.

If you're seeing 94, 95 Paul Skenes, you might be seeing a five ERA type of pitcher.

Yeah.

I want to see the guy from beginning of the year.

I want to see April Paul Skenes.

Well, yeah, but that's also, I'm not expecting April Paul Skenes, but like they need April Paul Skenes.

Like that's who they need right now too.

Like they need, they need April Paul Skenes.

You need a guy who's going to out there and win two, every starts.

He needs to win all of the starts.

Wow.

Yeah.

Not 25% of them though.

If that actually, yeah, he's not even doing that three and 13 in his last 16 starts.

Can't do that.

Right.

realistically over a 16 start Paul, like over 16 Paul scheme starts that record should be flipped.

You should be 13 and three.

And if they would have won 10 more games over that stretch than what they did.

They're a game behind the Cubs.

They've got a four game, they've got a four game lead for the second wild card.

Yeah.

If you just go 13 and three, instead of three and 13, you're in at this point, your playoff odds, those fan graphs, playoff odds that we talk about, where I think they're 3.6% right now.

It's like 95%.

Yeah.

Well, then it's Santana to blow up every save opportunity had Nick Gonzales could feel a ground or a third.

These injuries are going to come about five innings.

If there's a lot of picture, there's a lot of factors, a lot of factors, but Paul is one of them.

Paul is one of them.

Yep.

He is one of them.

There's a lot.

Paul is one of them.

All right, man.

Well, pirates go on to face the Detroit tigers.

Who've lost some games.

They don't have scoobble anymore.

There's that.

They're technically in it probably as much as the pirates are in it for the wild card as well.

Tigers are only a game out.

One game, one game out of the wild card.

Is it just one?

One.

I thought it was four.

One.

that AL is trash, so I'm not shocked.

I'm not shocked at all.

Yeah.

They are 60 and 64 and one game out.

They are just one game out.

There's Jesus.

God, that AL is so bad.

There's six teams all within two and a half games outside of the wild card.

And they're all bad.

The Mariners are 59 and 66 and they're two and a half out.

Yeah, it's rough.

The Orioles are in right now at 61 and 63.

Yeah, they traded Adley and they're in.

They're like, let's just sell off and trade some pieces.

Yeah, the AL is they're hurting right now.

I don't know who that final wild card team is going to be.

It could be anybody.

It's basically just like who wins the last series of the year.

They're just flip-flopping back and forth.

But yeah, the Tigers are in it.

And if you look at all the teams, like the Tigers are probably the best one.

They've run differential wise.

They're, one of the better teams in the American League.

They just have an awful bullpen that's been their issue this year.

similar to the Pirates where like high run differential, awful bullpen.

You know what?

That's wild though.

No, really.

They're the second highest team as far as run differential in the American League.

It is the Yankees at plus 85 and then it's the Tigers at plus 83.

Yep.

However, Houston's locked as the third team because they had the division at negative 30.

What an awful league.

We should just banish the AL.

Yeah.

And their bullpen actually hasn't been that bad now that I'm looking at it.

It's been, it's been fine.

But yeah, it's been, it's been a weird year for the Tigers.

They're, they've got a good team, I think.

But if you're the Pirates and you want to, so we talked about it, like they do not deserve to be talked about as a team in the hunt right now.

They can play their way back into the hunt.

They haven't yet.

They like one series win doesn't put them back in the hunt.

If you want to get back into the hunt, you've got to figure out a way to, I think you got to sweep this series.

Well, at the very least, and again, like at the very least, you got to take two out of three, right?

Like every series going in head, you're talking, you have to do at least two out of three.

You have to, you have to do two out of three.

And then here in there, find a way to sweep.

But with this series, we've got Carmen going, got Braxton going, you got Paul Skenes.

So, hey, two out of three ain't bad there as far as names go.

I don't know about the Carmen start.

He's not been good.

Was it a 13 something ERA and 5.1 innings and two starts?

They did officially, like Carmen is starting tonight, huh?

He is.

Like, cause yesterday it was still TBD.

No, it's Carmen starting.

I don't understand why they won't just go back to an opener with Carmen.

Every time they've tried it's worked.

And ever since being moved back in the rotation here, Carmen has not been able to start.

Now, I know the way that they mentioned last start, like, I don't think they're using Carmen as a, as like a regular starter either.

Like the last time he went out, the goal was for him to go three or four.

So, another reason to use an opener.

If you're going three or four, face the back end of the lineup twice, not the top of the order.

So, I don't know.

I don't get it, man.

I don't know.

Like, I have no problem with them putting Carmen back.

Cause who else is it going to be?

Right?

Like, it's simply just what's remaining.

I don't have a problem with it, but set the guy up for success.

Set your team up for success.

Use the opener with him.

I don't care what the problem is.

I don't care what's being said or who, what, why, or when.

It is out there.

Factually speaking, when Carmen has an opener, it's better.

And again, the opener is designed for pitchers like Carmen exactly to a T.

I don't understand why they're not using an opener again.

But regardless, it's not as if the opener was going to solve his past two starts either.

Let's put things in perspective.

That wasn't going to solve.

he was getting lit up the first time through the order as well.

So, at any rate, I don't understand it, but yes, he is the starter today.

They're going up against Frambois Valdez.

Now, ironic thing about that was a guy that a lot of pitchers, I'm sorry, a lot of Pirates fans were hoping to gain.

There was a little bit of smoke there with him.

Obviously, he went to the Tigers, not having the year you probably envisioned 4.26 ERA, but then they face Kyder Montero and then Jackson Jobe, who's in a short

stint and that magical draft class for Henry Davis.

Great talent, in the short stint, hasn't put up the numbers yet, but those are some guys who definitely got two more, two more, no, Jobe's already.

I said, another lefty though, in this series.

So, two out of three.

Yeah.

And again, he got Ashcraft and Skenes going.

We'll see what comes about with Skenes.

We'll see.

Yeah.

none of these pitchers scare you.

But more of a, deception and put the ball in play type of guy.

So yeah, we'll see how that goes.

Yeah.

Valdez is an interesting one because he's been, he's been okay this year.

He's been okay.

He hasn't been like the pitcher that he was when he was in Houston.

But again, like pirates have had their struggles against lefties.

So like they need to continue to go out there and hit lefties.

And Valdez is a better, is a better lefty than either of the two that they faced this weekend.

Oh yeah, for sure.

So we'll see what, we'll see what they can do.

They've got to, they've, they said they got to win.

I'm not even agreeing with you.

I don't think two of three is like, you have to sweep this series.

If you take two out of three, it doesn't do any good.

It does though, Jim.

Does, good.

If they take two out of three, this series and they sweep the next one, like what's the difference?

Again, the thing is they have to be, they have to be doing two out of three.

You're going to sweep the next one.

Well, do you see what the next one is?

Yes, absolutely.

The Dodgers suck.

The Dodgers are horrible right now.

They're absolutely getting swept by the pirates.

Look at how it lines up that weekend to Yamamoto, Skubal, Snell against the Dodgers.

Skubal's 0-3, I think.

He might not be 0-3, but every time he's left the game with the Dodgers, they've been down.

He's 0-2.

Yeah.

There you go.

I don't fear the Dodgers.

The Dodgers are terrible.

Absolutely.

You know what?

The pirates could take one.

This is the series they could lose, and they'll be fine because they got the Dodgers coming up next.

Sure.