◆NEWSPirates Notes: Keller, Pitching Pursuits, Lineup◆ROSTERSigned free agent RHP Enmanuel Nunez to a minor league contract◆STATPaul Skenes ranks 4th in the NL in strikeouts (200)◆STATNick Gonzales ranks 4th in the NL in batting average (.303)
◆NEWSPirates Notes: Keller, Pitching Pursuits, Lineup◆ROSTERSigned free agent RHP Enmanuel Nunez to a minor league contract◆STATPaul Skenes ranks 4th in the NL in strikeouts (200)◆STATNick Gonzales ranks 4th in the NL in batting average (.303)
The bigger questions come elsewhere. Nick Gonzales’ bat belongs in the lineup, but is second base his long-term home? Should Brandon Lowe be brought back? Can Murf Gray eventually solve third base?
There are real pieces here. Now the Pirates have to figure out how to finish the roster around them.
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The Debate
Should the Pirates let Brandon Lowe walk and spend the money on a right-handed corner outfielder instead?
No comments yet — be the first to weigh in.
With Anthony DiNardo and Jim Rosati.
Chapters
Key takeaways
1
It's time to move on from Don Kelly. The players love him, but bullpen calls like leaving Gregory Soto in on Saturday without Luke Weaver even warming up add up, and in the year the Pirates had to make the postseason, someone has to answer for missing it.
2
Don't trade Bryan Reynolds just to dump salary: he's on pace for his best year since 2021 (120 wRC+, 3 WAR). Mitch Keller is a different story. At $20M-plus after this season, he's a classic salary-dump candidate, and the young arms can fill his rotation spot.
3
Murf Gray can't be counted on as the Opening Day third baseman. His 32 homers came with juiced minor-league balls and only reach Double-A, so the Pirates have to bring in at least a one-year starter at third.
4
Let Brandon Lowe walk. Move Nick Gonzales back to second, where he's a better player, and spend the money on a right-handed corner outfielder. That keeps Ryan O'Hearn out of the outfield, frees up the DH spot and helps against lefties.
5
Re-signing Brandon Lowe should be the No. 1 offseason priority. Even if Gonzales improves at second, Lowe is still the better player, his swing fits PNC Park perfectly, and he's the clubhouse leader who talks to the media after losses.
Yo, welcome to the North Shore Nine podcast presented by FanDuel.
This is Bucco Brew, Powered by Defer Coffee and Tea.
I'm your host, Anthony DiNardo.
And with me, as always, this beautiful Monday is Jim Rosati.
And Jim, how you doing?
I'm doing good.
Good morning.
Good.
Good to hear.
Those Louisville Cardinals won.
Those Pittsburgh Steelers won.
You had a good football weekend.
It was a good weekend.
Went on vacation, too.
That's right.
My wife and I took our father-in-law to Boston.
He had never been to Boston before.
So, yeah, we were traveling around New England for a couple days.
And, yeah, it was a good time.
The weather was outstanding, which… That's good.
That's the best part.
Yeah.
Awesome.
Yeah, good stuff.
I was in Tampa most of last week.
I came home Saturday.
I got a cold.
So dumb.
Anyways, I'm better now.
I think the height of it was, like, on Friday.
But, like, it's just so annoying.
Just so annoying.
Colds are just the most annoying thing.
I was actually going to go to a Tampa Rays game on Friday night.
They play the Astros.
Like, yeah, why not?
I was, like, 16 minutes from the ballpark.
And I was just, like, once I got home, I'm like, I'm just staying home.
So, that was my week slash weekend.
Then I got to come home and watch the Cubs lose to the Pirates.
So, that was cool.
On Sunday?
Mm-hmm.
Yep.
Not on Friday or Saturday, though.
No.
No.
I was still in Tampa then.
And I was driving during Saturday's game.
So, I didn't really see that.
I was listening to it.
Yeah.
I actually stopped at the gas station when the whole Soto thing happened.
So, when I came back, like, we listen to MLB on the app.
it's not live.
It'll just pick back up.
And I saw all the tweets, and I saw this.
And I started listening to it as I was going.
And I was like, you know what?
Yeah.
Saturday's game was the one that I completely missed.
I didn't watch it.
I didn't listen to it.
I didn't really follow along to it.
So, yeah.
I guess I missed the bit, though.
It was a good game to miss.
Yeah.
Looked it.
Saturday's, you know what?
I'm happy I did.
But they avoided the sweep.
They did win on Sunday.
Well, it's interesting because, like, they ended up going four and two on the road trip, right?
They kept doing what they've been doing, which is if they would have won two out of three against the White Sox and then two out of three against the Cubs, it would have been the same outcome.
So.
They're back to 500.
Their postseason chances are almost non-existent right now.
The Padres just keep winning.
You can win a bunch of games and, like, this Pirates team has been playing really well lately.
if they would have played like they have this past month, the last two months, they'd be in a really good spot.
But they haven't.
And they just they fell too far behind.
And this recent streak of just good baseball that they've been playing, it's nice to see.
Right.
Like it's these games are still there's they said Alex says it on his show a lot where, like, there's they don't have an E next to their name there.
It's technically still meaningful baseball.
Until they got the E next to the name, it's still it's still counts.
And here we are on September 14th.
There's no E.
It's obviously it's bleak.
It's there.
There will be an E next to their name soon.
But it's not there yet.
Yeah, it's not what point one percent right now on.
Yeah.
Fan graphs playoff odds.
Yeah.
And that's the thing.
They actually have done their part.
like if they're going to make the playoffs, it's 0.0 as of this morning.
Yeah.
Yeah.
We joked yesterday.
It's probably like rounding.
It was at zero.
Then it was a point one.
Now it's back as you probably rounding errors.
It probably took like point four nine.
Then yesterday it jumped to point five one.
Now it's I guess back to the point four nine.
So but at any rate.
Yeah, that's what I'll say.
they did their part to keep it interesting.
Like if they were going to make the playoffs, they needed a lot of things to happen.
It was failures on other ends.
Right.
But it's not just other teams failing.
They had to actually go out there.
And like we said, you have to win at least two out of three every game at some point going forward.
You just you're just going to have to do it.
And technically, again, it's they won what six series in a row.
This would have been seven if they had the Cubs.
But of course, in theory, they didn't win seven series in a row.
But when you sweep and they went out three, like you said, I went four and two on the trip.
They've been doing that.
they've been going two out of three.
And so, again, like on their part, they've been doing what they need to do.
It's just, well, you have two teams that are also wildcard contenders and they're pretty good.
And they're keeping pace with you also.
And that's what that like after it's all said and done, like there's still the Pirates are six and a half games back right now.
that's why, again, we're talking about probabilities of this.
It's very improbable.
It's going to happen because you don't you can't just win two out of three.
You need to win two out of three.
And other teams need to be dropping and dropping and dropping.
And oh, yeah, here's where they stand.
So at any rate, they are, like you said, a 500 baseball team right now.
They're 75 and 75.
Not that it's something to like go out there and celebrate.
But.
This team has been resilient.
All year long, for the most part, like that's what we I think the best way to describe this team.
They had that collapse, after the all star break.
They weren't able to really recover from it, but they continue to play their ass off and they still do.
And like that, to me, mean something.
I guess it means something.
OK, I'll agree with you.
It means something.
It doesn't mean it doesn't mean enough later in the show does mean something.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I said Alex had a really good episode last week where he talked about, like, does 500 actually mean anything?
And it got in like I went into the episode.
I was like, no, it doesn't.
It's like that means you're average.
Right.
But then he went through it and he was like, this team's only been that.
I think like I think the number was like eight times since Dave Parker was on the team.
Yeah.
it's like this hasn't happened very often in the last 45 years of Pirates baseball.
Right.
in my in my lifetime that I can remember.
Right.
Because I can't really remember the that 90, 92 stretch.
It's happened four times that this team has gone 500.
I always forget way too much for way too much gray in my beard, DiNardo, for this to have only happened four times that I remember.
So, yeah, he happy belated birthday, Bucko Mike.
Yeah.
Yeah, that's true.
But Bucko Mike's birthday was yesterday.
Happy birthday.
Speaking of gray in the beard.
But no, it's something right.
this team, they're typically not this good.
They're typically bad.
They're like the season's over by this point.
Steelers played yesterday.
Right.
By this time, the Pirates are typically you're not even thinking about them.
And it's been a while since you've really thought of them.
And they've made you think of them.
Mm.
Which, again, I don't I don't want to say that's an accomplishment by any means, but.
It's something.
But it is reality.
It's something.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So, like, let me explain in this sense.
I don't look at it and say, like, this arbitrary number of 500 is meaningful that, hey, you hit the 500 mark.
That means something the way I look at it.
OK, because also let's take a step back here.
When playoffs are the expectations.
Right.
When it's like it's playoffs.
500 shouldn't be something to fall back and say, well, hey, at least we did that.
Like, well, 500 means this season was a failure.
Playoffs were the expectation.
Right.
500 is a failure.
What I believe in it.
And I think what it does mean is, again, going back to where this team was, they were hovering around 500.
this was a team that was always it was never right at what point of season was very late into the season.
It was, past the all star break where this team was never more than like two games below, but like never more than two games above.
Like it always just perfectly sat there.
Right.
They never have to go these long stretches of losing again.
Resiliency.
Right.
They are always right there in the thick of things.
And then the wheels fell off.
But they came back, they still fought.
That is why, to me, there's meaning behind it.
Understanding where the season went and they didn't just fall off.
They didn't just go away.
They still were fighting.
They're still doing it.
They went and, you know.
What was the first time they won five series in a row since 2018?
After 2015.
OK, so that's why, to me, there's meaning behind it.
And agree or disagree with this, because we're going to be big questions coming up soon.
Right.
But we talk about Don Kelly.
Like, to me, that speaks a lot about Don Kelly, though, as well.
So that's a good segue, because one of the things I did want to talk about this morning was Don Kelly.
Now, a lot of our conversation this morning is going to assume that, like, the economics of baseball continues its status quo, right?
We'll get into the front office a little bit, too.
But I want to ask you about Don Kelly, because, he got the job last year after Shelton was canned.
They never really gave him the interim tag.
They were like, no, you are the manager.
And then he was retained for the coming season.
He went roughly 500 last year, I think, as the manager, like right around that 500 mark.
This year, right around that 500 mark with a with a better team on paper is, as we're sitting right now.
And you mentioned, like, he's the thing I will say this about Don Kelly is I think the players respect the hell out of him.
And they.
They compete their asses off for Don Kelly, like he's done a really good job of getting this team to stay engaged throughout all this.
Like, it would have been really easy for this team a month ago to just be like, yeah, well, it's over.
Right.
And they didn't do that.
Like, they came back in.
And they've played really good baseball this last month.
So, like, how much how much credit do you give Don Kelly for that?
Do you say, you know what, like, I'm looking at the way these guys are playing.
This team is making improvements.
Don Kelly should be the guy going forward.
Or do you look at it and say, you know what, on paper, this probably should have been a playoff team.
You look at the war values of this team.
it's one of the best in baseball.
You look at run differential and based off of run differential, this is a playoff team.
They're vastly underperforming their pithag record.
Right.
So, like, there are signs that this team is vastly underperforming.
At the same time, there are signs where, you know what, these guys are playing really hard for this guy.
And they made a really it was a pretty big step up from last year.
So I think the Don Kelly conversation is interesting because.
Yeah, they're gonna have to make a decision on all these guys.
Like, does the front office come back?
Does the manager come back?
Does the coaching staff come back?
And I think today's, we want to talk about Don Kelly a little bit.
I agree that it's interesting.
It's certainly polarizing.
Everyone who, our audience that's listening to this right now.
I'm quite sure there are some that agree that he should be back.
And there are some that very much agree.
He was the problem.
Like, maybe single handedly the problem this year.
We've seen the comments on all of our socials.
Right.
Don Kelly probably cost his team 25 losses.
Now.
That's not the case.
Like, no manager cost a team that many losses.
Just point blank.
He had a horrible bullpen situation early on the season.
And again, a lot of the issues were his bullpen usage.
You have Dennis Santana pitching the way he had.
You have Isaac Mattson pitching the way he had.
Soto during that stretch starting to pitch the way that he was pitching as well.
Montgomery not coming to be the Montgomery that we've now seen.
like, it was a terrible situation.
And a lot was put on Donnie's hands for that.
No, I'm sorry.
Now.
Let's go back.
And I'm still going to speak for myself here, obviously.
When Shelton was hired.
And through his tenure.
I've always said that.
For me, the biggest part of a manager is.
Keeping your team engaged.
Right.
Like, that's not the X's and O's too much.
It's stuff that you don't really see.
To me, that really makes a manager.
Because most managers are, air quotes, terrible at baseball.
Almost every fan base hates their manager.
I keep.
I always go back to the Cubs and Guardians World Series.
When Terry Francona, right.
Was up there with Joe Maddon.
And Joe Maddon knew nothing about baseball.
And I'm saying that as a fan perspective.
Right.
He goes out there.
He makes this move.
That doesn't make any sense.
Where Terry Francona is like pulling all the right strings.
With Andrew Miller and all this.
And who ends up winning?
Joe Maddon.
Right.
Like, but Joe Maddon's notorious for just his antics.
And getting the team prepared.
And being in it and all this.
And blah.
Right.
And like Derek Shelton, I felt, was always closer to that.
I felt like you said about Don Kelly here.
Like, the players respected the hell out of Shelton.
And they would fight for him.
Until they didn't.
Like, to me, it was time when Shelton went.
And Kelly, I see of a lot of that too.
he is inexperienced.
This is the first time managing.
Do I think he could certainly improve on the X's and O's?
Absolutely.
Do I think he was so egregious that it outweighs what I think he provides to this clubhouse and this organization?
No.
I like Don Kelly.
I would be okay.
Absolutely okay.
Retaining him.
I'm not out here.
You need to fire him.
But I will say this.
Like, if they do decide to look at the things you're talking about and say, I think for this organization and this team, it makes sense to go out there and get somebody else.
Now, of course, once that hire happens, then I'll certainly judge it.
But if they decided to, I would be open to it.
I'm not here to pound the table and say, you need to keep Don Kelly.
I would, but if they decided to change hands and, like, take a new direction, I'll sit back and listen.
Yeah.
I want to share something.
I don't know if you caught this graphic that was put out.
It was last weekend it was put out.
And it was on a Twitter account.
It was a Detroit Tigers Twitter account.
Detroit Tigers stats account.
And basically, this account, it created a new statistic.
Now, there's caveats that come with this.
I know where you're going with it.
Essentially, he essentially said, like, there's no way these numbers are correct, right?
But more so, like, look at the rankings of it, because that's probably a little bit more accurate than the actual numbers associated with it.
So, created a stat called manager-adjusted wins per 162 games.
And essentially, what he did is he estimated the manager impact using situation-adjusted pinch-hit win probability added.
There's a lot of nerd stuff in here.
Bullpen change win probability added.
Leaving the pitcher in a danger spot win probability added.
Late-game conversions.
Challenge success.
Line-up adjustments.
Defensive adjustments.
Basically, he took all this and assigned a number to it.
And this is what he came up with.
I'm going to take the overlay off here so everybody can see it.
But essentially saying that, hey, like, Don Mattingly, Kevin Cash, Terry Francona, those are the three best managers in baseball.
Three worst.
Vitello for the Giants.
A.J. Hinch for the Dinovacs.
Suzuki for the Angels.
But it does have, it has Don Kelly ranked 25th here in manager-adjusted wins.
Again, don't look at the numbers because, like, there's no way that a manager is adding 17 wins to a total.
There's no way a manager is deducting 24 wins from a total.
But I think it is interesting to just see it stacked up like this, where, like, hey, like, essentially what this chart is saying is, did your decisions pay off?
Right.
And you can even say that's not even necessarily a managerial thing, right?
This is a hindsight graphic, really, is what it is.
Because at the end of the day, the players still have to get a job done.
But if you look at this, it stacks up all the managers and Don Kelly doesn't look too good.
And again, like, I'm sharing this graphic just because I want you to see the rankings of it.
I don't want you to look at the number.
Like, I don't think Don Kelly cost this team 8.3 wins this season.
Right.
It's probably a little bit too high.
But I think Don Kelly, in his decision-making, has certainly hurt the Pirates more than he's helped the Pirates this year.
Like, I think that's fair to say.
And I guess you have to figure out, how much of that is on Don Kelly, how much of that is on the players.
But like Saturday, for example, you're leaving Gregory Soto in to face a bunch of right-handed batters.
Like, these are games that you have to win, absolutely have to win.
And he doesn't even have those guys warming up.
And he even acknowledges post-game, like, hey, yeah, in hindsight, I probably should have had Luke Weaver warming up.
I think there's just too many little instances like that.
And again, like, the reason why the Pirates are where they're at today is a culmination of a lot of things.
We've talked about it all year.
Like, every year this team has, every week it seemed like this team was losing one or two games that it should have won.
And a lot of that falls on the players.
But it does seem like Don Kelly, especially recently when the bullpen got a little bit better, like, he just seems to stick with guys a little bit too long.
He's not utilizing all the weapons that he has at his disposal at the right time.
And again, I don't think anything that Don Kelly could have done over the last month ends up changing the result of this season.
But I'm going to take the opposite stance as you, right?
Where you say, hey, like, I would be fine.
You said you would be fine if they moved on from Kelly, but you like him and you think that he should get another shot.
I'm going to take the opposite stance.
Like, I'm going to be fine if they retain him.
But I think it's time to move on.
Yeah, that's fair.
And I like, I don't, you don't get that many chances at this.
Like, this was the year, period, full stop, right?
That you had to make the postseason.
And there's got to be, there's got to be, there's got to be response.
Like, people need to pay for that.
Like, if you didn't make the postseason.
And like, I like Don Kelly.
I think that the players like him.
And I think that's the main job of a manager.
Like, I think he's doing the main job of a manager very well.
But it's like the little things that I feel like he's, he just hasn't done correctly.
And I don't think those little things necessarily make this team a postseason team all of a sudden.
But, yeah, I'm ready to try something new.
And it's not just Don Kelly.
Like, this goes higher up, too.
Like, this isn't me saying this is all Don Kelly's fault.
Like, the, this is, this is everybody's fault.
but yeah, I'm going to take the opposite stance of you.
Like, if Don Kelly's the manager in 2027, I'm fine with that.
but I think it's time to try something else.
Okay.
Yeah.
And I think what this does show, though, is, it would be fair to say, neither of us have a strong stance on it.
You hedge towards moving.
I hedge towards staying, but neither of us are.
again, whatever happens, I don't think any of us are just going to be like, oh, this is terrible.
Again, unless what comes next, right?
Like if the replacement is the next, bench coach for the pirates or, something like that, like it says something stupid, then it's like, okay, now what the hell is going on?
Right.
But the keeping or removing of Don Kelly in a vacuum, I don't think either of us are going to have a very hard opinion, depending on what that move is, like, okay,
you know what?
I get it.
If they decide to move on, well, you know what?
And again, I would side that, but it's like, you know what?
Good for them.
Like they want to do better.
Big picture in the grand scheme of things like that's hopefully good.
That's a good mentality.
That's where this wasn't acceptable.
We need better.
And we are going to strive to do that.
And it's like, okay, well then you know what?
Like good for them.
There might be some buyer's remorse here.
There might be some regret, like who's the next guy up again.
I think Don Kelly does a lot of the good stuff that's behind the scenes that you don't really see, you know?
And that's why like Neil, right?
The token manager lover, of this pod.
I do tend to side with him a lot of things.
And again, with me, I felt Shelton lost that.
And it was absolutely time to go, even though there's a lot of the same excuses you could have for Shelton back then, as you do with Don Kelly, the first half, right?
What was Shelton going to go with, right?
What was his choices?
I just felt like he lost the clubhouse.
There wasn't a whole lot of fight left.
Don Kelly brought that back.
I think with his 15, but at any rate, that's, this is certainly a topic to discuss and the season's not over yet.
I don't know if there's going to be much that changes anything over the next, what?
12 games.
Jeez.
we have one more Bucco Brew in season.
That's it.
That's crazy.
The second one's going to be the day after it's over.
Yeah.
But, yeah, I don't think much is going to change.
I think the book's pretty much out there on Don Kelly.
So yeah, that's going to be certainly a big question this off season.
Yeah.
I think he's got his strengths as a manager.
I think he's got his weaknesses as a manager.
I don't know if one necessarily heavily outweighs the other, but I'm, I'm good with trying something new at this point.
It also does go back to like what I said last year to some level that he's heavily coveted.
A lot of people talk highly of him.
He will be an animal manager one day.
I felt like back then it's not fair to him.
good for him and everything, but like, it might not be fair to him for him to start here.
It might be fair for him to go somewhere else as a fresh face.
And what I'll say to that is knowing that he was here and came in, I thought he did better than I expected.
I'll say this, like the way that the team last year's team was dead when he took him over.
Right.
Right.
And he at least got them playing like respectable baseball.
It's just like, that is what.
Yeah.
Like this team on paper, this season was so much better than last year's team.
And here we are like, he's, it's the same.
It's really the same.
Like last year's record obviously was a whole lot worse, but that's because of where they started when he took over.
But overall he's been a 500 manager since the get go.
And that is going back to the point I raised earlier in the episode.
It's something it's something that this team hasn't seen a whole lot of.
Like how many managers has this team had over the last 50 years with a record over 500.
Two or three.
Yeah.
not many, right.
Right.
Leyland did it a few times and hurdle did it a few times.
That's it.
So if Kelly can be around that's, that's better than most.
It's still not good enough though.
All fair.
All fair.
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So there's the manager.
What do you want to talk about next?
well, first off, before we even get too far, we're doing the fundraiser still for the Clemente museum, that is going to be happening all throughout today.
So you can donate on any of our live streams from this past weekend.
You can donate on off beat this morning and donate on this show.
but we're trying to raise as much money as possible, for the Clemente museum.
Any dollar that you contribute will be matched by N S nine.
we're matching up to $1,050 in total donations.
so yeah, click on the little button.
if you're on your mobile phone, I think there's a button that just says like donate now underneath the show.
if you're on your computer, there's a, like a, like a heart hand, the symbol, pick, click on that.
and yeah, whatever you can donate, it's going to a, to a great cause.
and yeah, we're going to, we're going to match everything dollar for dollar up to that amount.
So just want to get that out of the way there.
Clemente day is tomorrow, Tuesday, September 15th.
That's across all of major league baseball.
so we're going to, we're going to be celebrating that, up until tomorrow's post game show.
So, but yeah, let's continue this whole discussion about, questions.
I think there's, there's still something to play for here, but at the same time, we've seen a lot of baseball now.
we, like I said, we've seen 150 games, worth of baseball.
And so I think it is time to start looking at the off season a little bit and Hey, what do, what does this team need to address over the off season to come back better next year?
And so I think there are a lot of positions now that you can look at and say, you know what?
I feel pretty good about this.
I feel pretty good about it.
I don't think they really need to go out and do anything.
Whereas maybe previous off season, it was like, we need some help here.
I think this team has less holes now than it did before, but I think there's still some holes.
but I'm curious to get your thoughts and share, what I think is in terms of like who I feel comfortable with going into next year.
And again, this is all assuming economic status of baseball stays the same.
If there, if all of a sudden the cap and floor system gets put in place and the pirates have to spend $180 million next year and they've got, a hundred million dollars to spend, then this is going to change, right?
Cause they can go out and they can do a whole lot more things, but assuming the same, I'm curious to see like who you feel comfortable with heading into next year.
And I've got a couple of questions.
One, I want to start with first base.
I want to start with first base because going into this year, I think this was a position where it was like, Oh, Spencer Horwitz was the best player on the team last year.
I think we're pretty good there.
He hasn't been that good this year.
He's had some health issues and he started off the season outstanding, but has since come back, pretty bad.
Like, he's been really bad lately.
his war now is 0.1.
His weight runs created plus is 99.
It's below average, which you simply can't have a below average hitting first baseman.
Like you can't, you can't have that.
so I'm curious on if you are comfortable with Spencer Horwitz moving forward.
If you're just chalking this season up to a, this is a blip because historically he, it's not like he has a ton of past, but his past is good.
So yeah.
What are your thoughts on first base moving forward?
I'm good.
Like I am.
I'm good because honestly, and you might understand why I'm going to say this as we go further and talk about, players and other positions and such Spencer Horwitz and Ryan or her, like there's your first baseman.
And then as Roland Valdez also can play first.
And I think, again, this year it almost made sense.
And he played it, I think one game.
but like, they made it a point that like, no, he's going to just focus on the outfield.
And I think that's something like, he is a rookie.
Just let them focus on the outfield, get them accustomed here.
Like, don't give them too much.
So I understand that, but like maybe next year, like he also has an option.
Like I'm fine with first base.
I think you have plenty of options for first base.
I'm okay with it.
Now, obviously this other thing I'm going to say here next to is, again, you talk about Spencer, you talk about O'Hearn, you talk about his Merlin, like he's got to come back healthy, but at some point, if, and when Indy comes back,
if he, like, I think more first base for him as an option, like, I think you have plenty of options at first base.
I don't think you really know, go invest money into that position next year.
I agree with you.
And I think I, what I, the reason why I agree with you is because of Ryan O'Hearn, the emergence of Esmerlyn Valdez and right field.
I feel, I feel a lot better about that corner outfield position and I feel better about O'Hearn playing more first base if necessary.
Left field, Bryan Reynolds comfortable with right field Valdez.
Let me do TBD.
Okay.
What do you mean by that?
TBD.
You need two more weeks of Valdez to decide who's, I guess, I guess to answer your question right now, I'm comfortable ish.
Comfortable ish.
Yeah.
But then you also, you'll understand why I'm saying that here shortly.
What if, like CPL says, because if there is, if there is no salary cap, you're looking at the salaries on this team, Reynolds and Keller are getting up to the point where
they're going to be taking up a good chunk of salary.
Is Bryan Reynolds, someone that, assuming economic status of baseball stays the same as Bryan Reynolds, somebody you're looking to move this off season.
I could be talked into it.
This is one of the things where it's like, I don't think there should be a definite, I'm drawing a line in the sand side to that.
It's almost, it's like, Oh, well, if you are, what's the other side of this going to look like?
like I can't say, Oh, they're trading Reynolds on that.
I'm done.
It's well, okay.
So then what's that?
Cause I can understand why, right?
Like you said, the economics of this, they're going to be a, they're going to be at a hundred million dollars next year.
Ethan put out there, he's done 2027 more or less right now.
They're tracking to be over a hundred million dollars on the payroll is as things stand.
So that's without making any moves.
I don't know what payroll is going to look like next year.
attendance is, it's almost essentially the same as it was two years ago.
They're at 1.75.
I think right now they're like 1.5.
There's what?
Nine games left.
Like it's probably going to be about the same.
I don't know what that means for payroll next year.
And they broke a hundred million this year when everyone was like, I don't know if they were going to do that, this year and whatnot.
So they're at a hundred million.
I think Mitch Keller makes a ton of sense, but it's also what do you do on the other side of that?
Right.
I, and again, I think if you're choosing one or the other, Mitch Keller makes more sense than Bryan Reynolds, you're going to get more for Bryan Reynolds and Mitch Keller.
But I don't think that's what matters here.
I think it's how do I free up more money?
It's like last year's trade deadline.
The thing is, how do I free up money to go and reinvest that into something else?
So I would be okay, but what's the other side of that look like?
Yeah.
I think you've got to be open to the idea of trading Bryan Reynolds, but it's got to make sense for you because right now.
I don't think they have an immediate replacement.
I guess you could, you could move all does the left and you could put O'Hearn and right and you could go Horwitz at first, but then that puts you into the situation that you were in this year where.
Where like O'Hearn probably shouldn't be playing in the outfield every single day.
Right.
And who knows if it's to blame, but O'Hearn had two extended IL since where I don't know if O'Hearn's DHing a bit more, if he's playing first base a bit more, do those do those injuries happen?
I don't know.
Maybe they do.
Maybe they don't.
but he is playing more outfield than he's ever played, in his entire career.
So I think you, ideally you want to keep O'Hearn out of the outfield, every day.
Like you don't want him to be an everyday outfielder.
So if you have Reynolds, if you have Cruz, if you have Valdez and you have O'Hearn and you have Horwitz, then you can do what we and, thought this thing was going to do before they signed Ozuna, which was, Hey, everybody gets some time off.
Everybody can, get that DH time, get some time off their feet a little bit.
And maybe that helps with longevity a little bit.
and Bryan Reynolds, he had that stretch, where, right after the all-star break, he was really bad, but overall, this has been a really good season for Bryan Reynolds.
He's got 120 way to runs created plus he's a three war.
it's going to be his best year since 2021.
And I wouldn't trade him just to dump the salary.
Like if I'm trading Bryan Reynolds, like I'm getting something back.
That's really nice.
yeah, I'm not completely closing the door to it.
But it's like, you've got to, you're going to have to pay up for him because he's a good player.
Keller.
Keller on the other hand, I could see them doing just the classic salary dump because he can't pitch like he did this year again, especially if you're going to be paying him
20 plus million dollars, just, he can't do that.
And I think there's enough young arms in this system that you've got a good enough core for that rotation and between skeins, Ashcraft, Bubba Jones, that you can supplement it with somebody else, a couple other arms if you need to, Reynolds though, I put it
a little different boat than Keller where he's just, you're going to have to, you're going to have to pay up if you want Bryan Reynolds.
Like we're not just going to give them away.
I agree.
catcher.
I'm not going to say, okay, so this is, I'm not comfortable.
I'm not comfortable, but it still goes down to the thing where like this year, like I think the catching position was a lot better than a lot of people expected or not expected than a lot of people realize.
Rafael Flores has looked more comfortable behind the plate.
That's maybe more comfortable about him as a long-term solution at catcher, right?
The actual catching part of the equation here, he's looking better at behind the plate with, and again, like you have Jacob Stallings, we talked about the coaching, like there's a good situation there to help guys be better catchers.
So the bats, the bats also look pretty good.
Again, still a small sample, right?
I don't know if I'm ready to go ahead and circle Rafael Flores, the starting catcher and that will be like, it's very short lived.
That's why I put out that tweet there.
you remember Henry Davis's first 110 at bats when he had a one 32 woodruns created plus, and he looked like a beast.
Well, he's not that guy.
So like, I'm not ready to say like Rafael Flores definitely is, but we know what Henry Davis is.
And if that's a backup catcher, that's something that I think you'd be comfortable with as a backup catcher, Rafael Flores.
And again, you said Indy, same situation, like Indy last year, it was like, I'm not counting on Indy as a catcher for this team.
I don't know what I'm counting on for his future in general, but he's still there.
I'm not counting on anything from him.
So like, I would be fine adding something else, but like, I don't think you need to go out there and get like a marquee catcher.
it happened this year.
The offense was perfectly fine.
So like, I don't think you have to, but I'm not comfortable with it.
I'm not saying like, we're good here.
Move on to something else.
Like I talked about with first base, I could upgrade, but there are other holes too.
Yeah.
You mentioned how I feel like a lot of people like to complain about the catcher situation.
this team's 11th in baseball and weighted runs created plus they're catchers.
They're 11th.
They're above average, for total war, catching war, they're right smack dab of the middle at 15th.
So like this, like catching is not really an issue for this team.
As much as you want to look at Henry Davis and say like, God, this guy cannot hit, Henry Davis for the most part.
Yeah.
Which is true for the most part though.
Henry Davis over the last couple of months has been treated like a backup catcher.
Like he's playing once, maybe twice a week lately.
and the ones who have been playing, whether that was Indy or Flores have been performing at the plate.
So, yeah, I think if the opportunity like presents itself where you can improve here, you can take it, but this is not a priority for me.
Like right now, I feel like they're in a pretty good spot.
I wouldn't say I'm like putting all my eggs in the Rafael Flores junior basket.
I do think he's looked really good.
and I think in terms of just major league catchers as a whole, I think he's probably one of the better hitting ones out there.
he's always going to swing in this, but the power, it, I think it's pretty legit.
so yeah, I think, I think like, this is a position where you always look to improve, but there are other things to address before this, like third base.
Okay.
Right.
Like third base is a position where they got to figure something out there.
Yeah.
So Nick Gonzales is not the answer there and Jared Trill is not the answer for third.
For different reasons.
Jared Trill is just not a starting caliber player.
He's perfectly fine having him on a team, but he's not a starting caliber player.
He seems to be a pretty legit prospect to some level.
I don't know what level you feel with him.
I don't know what level he'll end up being.
He's still just in double a.
it's like, it's on like the Esmerlyn Valdez type route of, he, you just got the double a, like, he'll probably start on triple a.
Like I can't say you're going to start him on opening day.
Like he's the answer to he's an option.
He's an interesting option, but he's also a prospect and he'll be a rookie next year.
He's there.
And again, the same thing, we talk about rookies that you've got to afford them opportunity to develop and whatnot.
And you can't just pencil him as the answer either, but he is an option.
That's why I think there's, you could get, you could get creative here.
So no, I'm not comfortable.
I don't know if there's an answer internally, but I don't know if you're going to fully invest into a major option at third base either.
Yeah.
I'm curious on how they approach this because it's not, I don't want to compare it to this year's shortstop situation because Konnor Griffin and Murf Gray are not the same caliber player.
Konnor Griffin, you knew was, this is your heir apparent at shortstop.
And as soon as he's ready, he's going to take over and he's going to be your shortstop.
As much as we want to believe that about Murf Gray and third base, like you can't, I don't think you can't count on that.
Like there are plenty of former top Nick Gonzales, another one that we just talked to.
Like these are all, these are all former top 100 prospects that are in the third base mix and you can't count on any of them.
So yeah, this is going to be interesting because also like Murf Gray moved up a lot this year.
Like he started the season in Bradenton.
It was his first season of pro ball.
He didn't play at all last season.
Moved to Greensboro, moved out tuna.
He's just, he's destroying the ball.
He has 32 homers, but you also have to keep in mind 15 of those came in Greensboro.
The minor league baseballs are clearly juiced out of, out to wazoo this season, right?
Like the minor league home run rates are skyrocketed.
so like you got to look at the home run number and you have to look at it in a way of, okay, if this were last year, how many maybe would he have hit, any home run in Greensboro, it basically counts as like a half of a home run in real life to
me.
So, that 30 now Altoona is a little bit different.
Altoona is a more of a pitcher friendly environment in the Eastern league as well.
So, those are, those are probably a little bit more legit, but again, juiced baseballs, like the juiced baseballs are certainly a thing.
Like he does look like a good, legit third base prospect.
you cannot, you absolutely cannot count on him though, to be your opening day third baseman next year.
If he wants to go out there and win the job, go ahead and let them, but you need to go out there and address their base at least for one season.
If it's just, and I'd have to like, we haven't gotten to the, like, we'll dig into this during the off season, but right.
Right.
They do need to go out there, I think, and get at least a one year stop gap at third base.
and however they may do that, maybe they do that like how they address second base this year with trading for Brandon Lowe, trading for a guy in the last year of his contract, trading for an ARB three guy trading, whether that's signing a free agent,
whatever it may be, they need to go out there and they need to find a starting third baseman for next season.
Like you said, there's a lot of good stuff I like about him, but it's the same thing.
Like if you're, if you're serious, right.
Next year is going to be a playoff team.
I think you need to have an actual solution there to some level.
Like, I don't think it has to be an all-star caliber, right?
Brandon Lowe person.
Of course I'd like that, but I don't think it has to be per se, but yes, you need to have something there to at least hedge a little bit here because right.
And I'm not here to tell you like his defense at second is outstanding, but it's certainly fine.
It's certainly fine.
And Nick Gonzales being at second base makes the Gonzalez better.
Like he's a better version of himself.
If he was a second baseman opposed to the third baseman.
And we already talked about your fine with this vision, that position.
Where are you putting in Gonzalez next year?
Him being at second base, I am perfectly fine with.
Now you need to replace Brandon Lowe's offense, right?
Like you need to replace him in some way or some manner to some level here, right?
You'll be taking a step back offensively.
And I just think this is why, again, when I said TBD, this is why I think honestly what makes the most sense is letting him walk and adding an outfielder, like replace Brandon Lowe with
a corner outfielder somewhere and a right-handed outfielder because it helped.
Again, this team was terrible against left-handed pitching, adding a right-handed bat, putting him in the outfield, I think does a lot for this team as far as the construction.
It evens out the splits here a little bit.
And for everything that we just talked about with Ryan O'Hearn, like having him play the outfield less is also a positive for this team and for him.
If he is in the DH role a little more often, at first base a little more often, in the outfield a lot less, his longevity, well, I shouldn't say longevity, he's only here signed for a one-year deal, but it's like him being able to stay on the field for next year or for the whole season, probably improves.
The DH now being that rotating role to give these guys days off to keep a little more fresh.
I am letting Brandon Lowe walk and replacing him with a corner outfielder.
A right-handed corner outfielder.
I guess, or again, or it could be the third baseman.
You're still getting it.
I'm still absolutely getting an outfielder.
If the big bat is by way of third base, then same thing.
But again, that's how I'm letting Brandon Lowe walk.
Gonzalez is my second baseman.
And I'm going to get Brandon Lowe's replacements there.
I'm going to start off by saying that I think I would be comfortable with Nick Gonzales as my starting second baseman.
Like, I think it would be just fine.
But I think you got to try to get better if you can.
And I would rather, like, if you're telling me, and I brought this up earlier, if you're telling me, moving Gonzalez second base makes him a better player, I agree with you.
But Brandon Lowe at second base is still the better player than Nick Gonzales.
So I'm still trying to bring back Brandon Lowe.
That would be my, that would be probably my number one thing to do this offseason outside that.
And like I said, addressing third base.
I think those are the top two things.
And if you're telling me, like, maybe you can get value elsewhere, like maybe you trade Nick Gonzales for that corner outfielder or whatever you need.
But I am absolutely looking to, I'm comfortable with Nick Gonzales at second, but I'm absolutely looking to improve that situation.
That means figuring out a way to bring Brandon Lowe back.
Then that's what you do.
So that's, that's where I'm at.
I don't think he's going to have over four war this season.
It's just, he's just, the swing is perfect for PNC park.
He's the perfect Pittsburgh pirate.
I feel like he's always, he's also always that guy.
Like I, it's like clubhouse leader.
Like after a loss, you can always tell after losses, like who's the guy in the clubhouse who is like, you know what guys I'll talk about this one.
After pirates losses, the only quotes you read in the newspaper are from Brandon Lowe, right?
Like if I feel like Brandon Lowe is the guy where like after a loss, he's like, Hey guys, I'll talk, I'll talk to the media.
You guys can go on and do whatever you want.
I'll be the guy to talk to.
and that's like a big deal.
he's a leader.
He's a really good player.
He's having an awesome season.
He's just, he fits in so well with this team.
everybody seems to love him.
Figure out a way to bring Brandon Lowe there back.
That's, that is a priority for me.
Okay.
again, if Brandon Lowe is a pirate next year, I am not weeping.
Right.
Yeah.
Oh my God.
How can they do it by no means.
Right.
But I, what I will say is if they do not retain him, I'm not going to be the one that's going to be piling the table.
I'm like, this is, this is stupid.
This is the cheap.
Like I understand.
And I, if I'm GM and I'm given some constraints now, again, like things can happen.
Right.
But like, I don't know if that is priority for me.
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Should the Pirates let Brandon Lowe walk and spend the money on a right-handed corner outfielder instead?
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